Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights
Final · ESPN+
Shot chart · 8 goals (G)
Model: CGY 2.50–3.90 VGK
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CGY vs VGK
The model
How this number was built
CGY 2.50–3.90 VGK · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.53 vs -0.83 · adj. shots +0.3 vs -3.5 · back-to-back: VGK, CGY · model VGK 3.7–2.5 CGY
- Home field+0.2 goals to VGK
- RecordVGK 7-2-0 · CGY 1-6-0
- Market priorBlended 68% toward VGK -285 / total 6.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 0:250–1Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (6)
- GOAL1st 9:340–2
Jack Eichel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none
GOAL2nd 10:151–2Jacob Middleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (4), Martin Pospisil (1)
- GOAL2nd 11:031–3
Braeden Bowman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (5), William Karlsson (2)
- GOAL3rd 1:061–4
Mark Stone Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (10), Ivan Barbashev (6)
- GOAL3rd 12:101–5
Mark Stone Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (2), Ivan Barbashev (7)
- GOAL3rd 16:131–6
Mark Stone Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (11), Mitch Marner (7)
- GOAL3rd 18:402–6
Matt Coronato Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (2), Morgan Frost (1)
CGY 2.51–3.90 VGK
MissData-Driven Pick · J. Eichel Over 1.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Flames vs Golden Knights pick result · Oct 15, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CGY +1.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day