NFLMon 7:15 PM CTM&T Bank Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

TV · ESPN

ChargersRavens

Mon 7:15 PM CT

Lean · SpreadNot a strong play

LAC +4.5

-112 at lock52%

Model projects LAC 18.00 – 21.33 BAL · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

J. Herbert · LAC
QB
O. Hampton · LAC
RB
L. McConkey · LAC
WR
J. Fagnano · BAL
QB
D. Henry · BAL
RB
Z. Flowers · BAL
WR

Data-Driven Pick · Z. Flowers Under 69.5 rec yds

Strong play-110

Los Angeles Chargers

0-8 · L8 · computer pick

121 PF · 219 PA

18.00

Projected

Baltimore Ravens

4-5 · L4

189 PF · 236 PA

21.33

LAC 40%BAL 60%

At lock: projected LAC 18.00–21.33 BAL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BAL -0.3

BAL -4.5

Total

39.3

38.5

Gap: -4.2 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAC vs BAL

The model

How this number was built

LAC 18.00–21.33 BAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BAL -5.6 vs LAC -3.1 · pred margin +3.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) BAL off -0.05, def stop -0.02 · LAC off -0.13, def stop +0.04 · rest +3d · QB change: BAL · model BAL 21.0–20.0 LAC
Home field
+2.4 pts to BAL
Record
BAL 4-5 · LAC 0-8
Market prior
Blended 66% toward BAL -4.5 / total 38.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Justin Herbert
Pass 144/235, 1591 YDS, 6 TD, 11 INT
Omarion Hampton
Rush 102 CAR, 369 YDS, 3 TD
Ladd McConkey
Rec 17 REC, 286 YDS, 1 TD

Joe Fagnano
Pass 20/39, 151 YDS, 3 INT
Derrick Henry
Rush 175 CAR, 689 YDS, 8 TD
Zay Flowers
Rec 43 REC, 614 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAC	BAL
Points Per Game	15.1	21.0
Total Yards	316.4	342.4
Yards Passing	201.9	204.7
Yards Rushing	114.5	137.8
Points Allowed Per Game	27.4	26.2
Yards Allowed	352.6	341.8
Pass Yards Allowed	230.6	241.9
Rush Yards Allowed	122.0	99.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

Z. Flowers Under 76.5 rush+rec yds

-11055%

Rush + rec yards · DraftKings

Z. Flowers Under 70.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · BAL
-110
55%
D. Henry Under 79.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · BAL
-110
54%
Z. Flowers Under 5.5 rec
Receptions · BAL
-110
54%
D. Henry Under 18.5 car
Carries · BAL
-110
53%
J. Brissett Under 1.5 pass TD
Passing TDs · BAL
-110
53%
J. Herbert Under 231.5 pass+rush yds
Pass + rush yards · LAC
-110
52%
M. Hibner Over 0.5 rec
Receptions · BAL
-110
52%
J. Brissett Under 215.5 pass yds
Passing yards · BAL
-110
52%
J. Herbert Under 19.5 cmp
Completions · LAC
-110
52%
R. Patterson Under 7.5 kicking pts
Kicking points · BAL
-110
52%
J. Brissett Under 19.5 cmp
Completions · BAL
-110
52%

Chargers vs Ravens prediction · Nov 16, 2026

The model projects Chargers 18.0, Ravens 21.3. Model win probability: Ravens 60%, Chargers 40%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day