NFLSun 3:05 PM CTState Farm Stadium

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

TV · CBS

RamsCardinals

Sun 3:05 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 39.5

-108 at lock50%

Model projects LAR 25.33 – 15.81 ARI · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

M. Stafford · LAR
QB
K. Williams · LAR
RB
T. Higbee · LAR
TE
T. Allgeier · ARI
RB
T. McBride · ARI
TE

Data-Driven Pick · T. McBride Under 7.5 rec

Strong play-110

Los Angeles Rams

5-4 · W3

214 PF · 181 PA

25.33

Projected

Arizona Cardinals

3-6 · L1

178 PF · 255 PA

15.81

LAR 76%ARI 24%

At lock: projected LAR 25.33–15.81 ARI

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LAR -9.6

LAR -9.5

Total

41.0

38.5

Gap: -0.1 margin, +2.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAR vs ARI

The model

How this number was built

LAR 25.33–15.81 ARI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ARI -8.4 vs LAR +3.7 · pred margin -9.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) ARI off -0.04, def stop -0.05 · LAR off +0.04, def stop +0.08 · QB change: ARI · model ARI 17.5–27.1 LAR
Home field
+2.4 pts to ARI
Record
ARI 3-6 · LAR 5-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward LAR -9.5 / total 38.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Matthew Stafford
Pass 230/346, 2374 YDS, 16 TD, 9 INT
Kyren Williams
Rush 127 CAR, 593 YDS, 6 TD
Tyler Higbee
Rec 28 REC, 287 YDS, 1 TD

Tyler Allgeier
Rush 89 CAR, 369 YDS, 2 TD
Trey McBride
Rec 73 REC, 598 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAR	ARI
Points Per Game	23.8	19.8
Total Yards	390.6	333.8
Yards Passing	265.2	231.1
Yards Rushing	125.3	102.7
Points Allowed Per Game	20.1	28.3
Yards Allowed	312.9	352.6
Pass Yards Allowed	209.1	230.7
Rush Yards Allowed	103.8	121.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

T. McBride Under 6.5 rec

-11055%

Receptions · DraftKings

T. McBride Under 58.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · ARI
-110
53%
K. Williams Under 65.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · LAR
-110
53%
B. McManus Under 8.5 kicking pts
Kicking points · LAR
-110
52%
M. Stafford Under 1.5 pass TD
Passing TDs · LAR
-110
52%
M. Stafford Under 20.5 cmp
Completions · LAR
-110
52%
M. Stafford Under 0.5 INT
Interceptions · LAR
-110
52%
K. Williams Under 15.5 car
Carries · LAR
-110
52%
C. Beck Under 0.5 INT
Interceptions · ARI
-110
52%
C. Beck Under 31.5 att
Pass attempts · ARI
-110
52%
M. Wilson Sr. Under 4.5 ast
Assists · ARI
-110
52%
B. Corum Under 59.5 rush yds
Rushing yards · LAR
-110
52%

Rams vs Cardinals prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Rams 25.3, Cardinals 15.8. Model win probability: Cardinals 24%, Rams 76%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day