Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Final · Prime Video
24–21
At lock: projected WSH 20.14–21.91 NYG
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 7:15 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1463364465
- Winner: Giants (56%)
- Spread: NYG -2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 41.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)5
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Okonkwo rec yds | — | 35 | 24 | off -11 |
| A. Kaliakmanis pass yds | — | 181 | 0 | off -181 |
| J. Croskey-Merritt rush yds | — | 45 | 0 | off -45 |
| S. Diggs rec yds | — | 47 | 83 | off 36 |
| M. Nabers rec yds | — | 73 | 44 | off -29 |
| J. Winston pass yds | — | 156 | 0 | off -156 |
| I. Likely rec yds | — | 43 | 127 | off 84 |
| D. Singletary rush yds | — | 23 | 3 | off -20 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs NYG
The model
How this number was built
WSH 20.14–21.91 NYG · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNYG -3.4 vs WSH -2.9 · pred margin +1.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)EPA/play (opp-adj.) NYG off -0.01, def stop +0.01 · WSH off +0.00, def stop -0.05 · model NYG 24.4–21.6 WSH
- Home field+2.4 pts to NYG
- RecordNYG 5-3-1 · WSH 3-5-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward NYG -1.5 / total 40.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| NYG | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
How the points were scored
FGQ2 14:073–0Drew Stevens 46 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 2:353–7Cam Skattebo 1 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)
- TDQ2 0:0510–7
Ben Sinnott 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)
- TDQ3 10:2210–14
Cam Skattebo 13 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick)
- TDQ3 6:5617–14
Antonio Williams 31 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)
- TDQ4 8:1317–21
Isaiah Likely 66 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Dominic Zvada Kick)
- TDQ4 0:5724–21
Stefon Diggs 32 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| WSH | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | SACKS | QBR | RTG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayden Daniels #5 | 23/33 | 249 | 7.5 | 3 | 2 | 1-14 | 52.3 | 96.7 |
| Team | 23/33 | 235 | 7.5 | 3 | 2 | 1-14 | -- | 96.7 |
Rushing
| WSH | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rachaad White #1 | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | 18 |
Jayden Daniels #5 | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 | 8 |
 Austin Ekeler #30 | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 | 7 |
 Robert Henry Jr. #34 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 33 | 105 | 3.2 | 0 | 18 |
Receiving
| WSH | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | TGTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stefon Diggs #3 | 6 | 83 | 13.8 | 1 | 32 | 10 |
 Antonio Williams #14 | 2 | 42 | 21.0 | 1 | 31 | 2 |
 Ben Sinnott #82 | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 1 | 24 | 4 |
 Treylon Burks #13 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 20 | 3 |
Austin Ekeler #30 | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
 Chig Okonkwo #85 | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | 11 | 8 |
Rachaad White #1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| Team | 23 | 249 | 10.8 | 3 | 32 | 33 |
Fumbles
| WSH | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremy Reaves #39 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| WSH | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HTS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sonny Styles #52 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jeremy Reaves #39 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Frankie Luvu #4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Cross #25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Amik Robertson #2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Percy Butler #35 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Quan Martin #20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Odafe Oweh #98 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Trey Amos #23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Shy Tuttle #96 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 K'Lavon Chaisson #45 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kain Medrano #56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Owens #18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deatrich Wise Jr. #91 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tim Settle #97 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chig Okonkwo #85 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Charles Omenihu #90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Ale Kaho #51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jer'Zhan Newton #95 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Josephs #48 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dorance Armstrong #92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Rasul Douglas #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 75 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Interceptions
| WSH | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Rasul Douglas #29 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| WSH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke McCaffrey #11 | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 25 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 25 | 0 |
Punt returns
| WSH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luke McCaffrey #11 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 12 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 12 | 0 |
Kicking
| WSH | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drew Stevens #19 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 46 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 46 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| WSH | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tress Way #10 | 4 | 198 | 49.5 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| Team | 4 | 198 | 49.5 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WSH | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 21 |
| Passing 1st downs | 9 | 11 |
| Rushing 1st downs | 9 | 9 |
| 1st downs from penalties | 2 | 1 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-14 | 4-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Plays | 67 | 64 |
| Total Yards | 340 | 399 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| Total Drives | 12 | 12 |
| Passing | 235 | 283 |
| Comp/Att | 23/33 | 23/36 |
| Yards per pass | 6.9 | 7.6 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 1 |
| Sacks-Yards Lost | 1-14 | 1-10 |
| Rushing | 105 | 116 |
| Rushing Attempts | 33 | 27 |
| Yards per rush | 3.2 | 4.3 |
| Red Zone (Made-Att) | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Penalties | 4-17 | 6-62 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Defensive / Special Teams TDs | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 30:22 | 29:38 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
They agree: the model projects NYG by 1.77, which also covers WSH +2.5.
Why Grok Expert likes WSH +2.5: Numbers first: ESPN FPI makes this a coin flip (NYG 50.1%), our site model has NYG by only 0.3, and our own schedule-adjusted rating from 136 NFL results has NYG by 2.4. Averaged, that is NYG by 0.9, a 1.6-point gap to the +2.5. The line opened WSH +1.5 and moved away from Washington, so we are getting the better number. Giants are without top backs Cam Skattebo (out) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (IR); these teams tied 27-27 in Week 6.
Model projected WSH 20.14 – 21.91 NYG at lock · matches Grok Expert's Play of the Day (edge -1.3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop Malik Nabers · NYG
44 YDS · under 67.5Jayden Daniels · WSH
23/33 C/ATT · 249 YDSJ.J. McCarthy · NYG
23/36 C/ATT · 293 YDSRachaad White · WSH
11 CAR · 47 YDSCam Skattebo · NYG
18 CAR · 78 YDSStefon Diggs · WSH
6 REC · 83 YDS
Data-Driven Pick · M. Nabers Under 67.5 rec yds
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Commanders vs Giants pick result · Nov 12, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day