NFLFinalSoldier Field

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Final · NBC

24–27

BuccaneersBears

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-6 · L1

202 PF · 178 PA

Final

Chicago Bears

7-2 · W4

241 PF · 184 PA

TB 34%CHI 66%

At lock: projected TB 20.21–25.66 CHI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 7:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1429809227

Winner called · off by 5

Most typical sim

TB 20 – CHI 26

Final

TB 24 – CHI 27

Winner: Bears (68%)
Spread: TB +6 covers (49% vs 47%, push 3%)
Total: Under 47.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)5

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
B. Irving rush yds	—	76	97	off 21
E. Egbuka rec yds	—	44	38	off -6
C. Williams pass yds	—	237	279	off 42
D. Swift rush yds	—	66	31	off -35
B. Mayfield pass yds	—	167	243	off 76
R. Odunze rec yds	—	55	60	off 5
L. Burden III rec yds	—	58	97	off 39
C. Godwin Jr. rec yds	—	32	16	off -16

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TB vs CHI

The model

How this number was built

TB 20.21–25.66 CHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CHI +4.0 vs TB +2.5 · pred margin +5.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) CHI off +0.05, def stop +0.03 · TB off -0.07, def stop +0.11 · model CHI 24.4–19.8 TB
Home field
+2.4 pts to CHI
Record
CHI 7-2 · TB 3-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward CHI -6.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TB	0	6	7	11	24
CHI	14	3	7	3	27

How the points were scored

TDQ1 9:380–7
Rome Odunze 9 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)
TDQ1 6:000–14
Luther Burden III 56 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)
FGQ2 13:483–14
Chase McLaughlin 27 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 3:023–17
Cairo Santos 25 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:006–17
Chase McLaughlin 21 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 11:3713–17
Bucky Irving 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)
TDQ3 3:3913–24
Jaylon Johnson 67 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)
FGQ4 11:2416–24
Chase McLaughlin 35 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 2:5124–24
Bucky Irving 6 Yd Rush (Baker Mayfield Run for Two-Point Conversion)
FGQ4 0:0024–27
Cairo Santos 38 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

TB	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Baker Mayfield #6	18/32	243	7.6	0	2	4-17	24.9	54.6
Team	18/32	226	7.6	0	2	4-17	--	54.6

Rushing

TB	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bucky Irving #7	20	97	4.9	2	25
Kenny Gainwell #1	5	16	3.2	0	8
Chris Godwin Jr. #14	1	12	12.0	0	12
Emeka Egbuka #2	1	1	1.0	0	1
Baker Mayfield #6	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	28	126	4.5	2	25

Receiving

TB	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG	TGTS
Tez Johnson #15	2	76	38.0	58	5
Kenny Gainwell #1	3	60	20.0	44	3
Emeka Egbuka #2	3	38	12.7	21	5
Bucky Irving #7	4	28	7.0	10	5
Cade Otton #88	4	25	6.3	9	8
Chris Godwin Jr. #14	2	16	8.0	9	3
Ted Hurst III #17	0	0	0.0	0	1
Team	18	243	13.5	58	30

Fumbles

TB	FUM	REC
Bucky Irving #7	1	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu #5	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

TB	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Josiah Trotter #45	8	5	0	0	0	0
Tykee Smith #23	7	4	0	1	1	0
Zyon McCollum #27	5	4	0	1	2	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu #5	4	4	0	0	1	0
Antoine Winfield Jr. #31	4	2	0	0	1	0
Keionte Scott #22	4	2	0	0	0	1
Kevin Knowles #38	4	1	0	0	0	0
Jacob Parrish #25	3	3	0	1	1	0
Anthony Nelson #98	3	1	0.5	0	0	1
Calijah Kancey #94	3	1	0.5	0	0	1
Alex Anzalone #34	2	2	0	0	1	0
Vita Vea #50	2	1	0	0	0	0
Kameron Johnson #19	2	1	0	0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson #91	2	0	0	0	0	0
Rueben Bain Jr. #3	2	0	0	0	0	2
David Walker #51	2	0	0	0	0	0
Miles Killebrew #29	1	1	0	0	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad #97	1	1	0	1	0	0
Payne Durham #87	1	1	0	0	0	0
Tez Johnson #15	1	1	0	0	0	0
David Sills V #80	1	0	0	0	0	0
Ko Kieft #41	1	0	0	0	0	0
SirVocea Dennis #8	1	0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Simmons #92	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	65	35	1	4	7	5

Interceptions

TB	INT	YDS
Zyon McCollum #27	2	0
Tykee Smith #23	1	23
Alex Anzalone #34	1	6
Team	4	29

Kick returns

TB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Sean Tucker #44	4	92	23.0	24	0
Team	4	92	23.0	24	0

Kicking

TB	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlin #4	3/3	100.0	35	1/1	10
Team	3/3	100.0	35	1/1	10

Punting

TB	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Riley Dixon #9	6	293	48.8	0	2	54
Team	6	293	48.8	0	2	54

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TB	CHI
1st Downs	18	15
Passing 1st downs	9	11
Rushing 1st downs	7	4
1st downs from penalties	2	0
3rd down efficiency	2-12	7-13
4th down efficiency	1-2	0-0
Total Plays	64	60
Total Yards	352	349
Yards per Play	5.5	5.8
Total Drives	14	13
Passing	226	277
Comp/Att	18/32	22/37
Yards per pass	6.3	7.3
Interceptions thrown	2	4
Sacks-Yards Lost	4-17	1-2
Rushing	126	72
Rushing Attempts	28	22
Yards per rush	4.5	3.3
Red Zone (Made-Att)	2-5	1-4
Penalties	8-45	9-74
Turnovers	2	5
Fumbles lost	0	1
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	1
Possession	32:52	27:08

Computer pick · Total

Under 47.5

52%

At lock TB 20.21–25.66 CHI · 1.6 pts under 47.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop Luther Burden III · CHI
97 YDS · over 65.5
Baker Mayfield · TB
18/32 C/ATT · 243 YDS
Caleb Williams · CHI
22/37 C/ATT · 279 YDS
Bucky Irving · TB
20 CAR · 97 YDS
D'Andre Swift · CHI
12 CAR · 31 YDS
Tez Johnson · TB
2 REC · 76 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · L. Burden III Under 65.5 rec yds

-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Buccaneers vs Bears pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 47.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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