NFLFinalGillette Stadium

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Final · Fox

45–27

PackersPatriots

Final

Green Bay Packers

6-3 · W2

216 PF · 191 PA

Final

New England Patriots

5-4 · L1

211 PF · 207 PA

GB 47%NE 53%

At lock: projected GB 22.00–23.00 NE

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 3:28 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1479994989

Missed · off by 26

Most typical sim

GB 21 – NE 25

Final

GB 45 – NE 27

Winner: Patriots (62%)
Spread: NE -3 covers (49% vs 42%, push 9%)
Total: Over 44.5 (62%)
Score error (both teams)26

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
H. Henry rec yds	—	40	35	off -5
M. Golden rec yds	—	57	164	off 107
J. Love pass yds	—	256	372	off 116
D. Maye pass yds	—	246	299	off 53
C. Watson rec yds	—	77	171	off 94
R. Stevenson rush yds	—	43	32	off -11
J. Jacobs rush yds	—	52	5	off -47
A.J. Brown rec yds	—	51	0	off -51

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GB vs NE

The model

How this number was built

GB 22.00–23.00 NE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NE +1.4 vs GB +2.7 · pred margin +2.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) NE off +0.07, def stop -0.04 · GB off +0.04, def stop +0.05 · model NE 24.8–22.6 GB
Home field
+2.4 pts to NE
Record
NE 5-4 · GB 6-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward NE -3.5 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
GB	14	10	18	3	45
NE	0	14	7	6	27

How the points were scored

TDQ1 13:197–0
Jordan Love 13 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)
TDQ1 7:5914–0
Matthew Golden 5 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)
FGQ2 13:3717–0
Trey Smack 41 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 9:2317–7
Rhamondre Stevenson 30 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)
TDQ2 4:4524–7
Kaleb Johnson 2 Yd Rush (Trey Smack Kick)
TDQ2 2:3724–14
Efton Chism III 8 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)
TDQ3 10:5131–14
Savion Williams 10 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)
FGQ3 5:1334–14
Trey Smack 51 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 4:1042–14
Christian Watson 39 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Jordan Love Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ3 1:1142–21
Mack Hollins 22 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)
FGQ4 11:5145–21
Trey Smack 38 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 3:5445–27
Corey Kiner 4 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

GB	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan Love #10	23/29	372	12.8	3	0	3-23	98.0	153.2
Team	23/29	349	12.8	3	0	3-23	--	153.2

Rushing

GB	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kaleb Johnson #26	14	68	4.9	1	34
Pierre Strong Jr. #22	8	22	2.8	0	8
Jordan Love #10	1	13	13.0	1	13
Savion Williams #83	3	13	4.3	0	13
Tucker Kraft #85	2	8	4.0	0	8
Josh Jacobs #8	4	5	1.3	0	3
Team	32	129	4.0	2	34

Receiving

GB	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
Christian Watson #9	7	171	24.4	1	43	8
Matthew Golden #0	10	164	16.4	1	49	10
Savion Williams #83	3	25	8.3	1	10	4
Pierre Strong Jr. #22	2	11	5.5	0	7	2
Tucker Kraft #85	1	1	1.0	0	1	3
Team	23	372	16.2	3	49	27

Fumbles

GB	FUM	REC
Josh Jacobs #8	1	0
Isaiah McDuffie #58	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

GB	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Isaiah McDuffie #58	10	5	1	2	0	1
Nick Niemann #31	7	5	0	0	1	0
Evan Williams #33	5	4	0	0	1	0
Keisean Nixon #25	4	3	0	0	0	0
Xavier McKinney #29	4	2	0	0	2	0
Dani Dennis-Sutton #51	4	1	0.5	0	0	1
Barryn Sorrell #99	3	2	0	0	0	0
Javon Bullard #7	3	2	0	0	0	0
Kitan Oladapo #27	3	1	0	0	0	0
Brandon Cisse #2	3	1	0	0	1	0
Jordon Riley #97	3	0	0	0	0	0
Karl Brooks #94	2	2	2	2	0	3
Bo Melton #16	2	2	0	0	0	0
Kamal Hadden #36	2	2	0	0	0	0
Kristian Welch #54	2	1	0	0	0	0
Lukas Van Ness #90	1	1	0	0	0	0
Anthony Campbell #93	1	1	0	0	0	0
Benjamin St-Juste #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
Brenton Cox Jr. #57	1	0	0.5	0	0	3
Chris McClellan #55	1	0	0	0	0	1
Carrington Valentine #24	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	62	35	4	4	6	9

Interceptions

GB	INT	YDS
Xavier McKinney #29	2	38
Evan Williams #33	1	0
Team	3	38

Kick returns

GB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bo Melton #16	4	110	27.5	48
J. Michael Sturdivant #87	1	26	26.0	26
Team	5	136	27.2	48

Punt returns

GB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Coleman Owen #13	1	13	13.0	13	0
Team	1	13	13.0	13	0

Kicking

GB	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey Smack #28	3/3	100.0	51	4/4	13
Team	3/3	100.0	51	4/4	13

Punting

GB	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Daniel Whelan #19	4	214	53.5	2	0	62
Team	4	214	53.5	2	0	62

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GB	NE
1st Downs	22	22
Passing 1st downs	13	13
Rushing 1st downs	6	8
1st downs from penalties	3	1
3rd down efficiency	4-12	4-9
4th down efficiency	0-1	0-0
Total Plays	64	61
Total Yards	478	387
Yards per Play	7.5	6.3
Total Drives	14	14
Passing	349	293
Comp/Att	23/29	22/41
Yards per pass	10.9	6.5
Interceptions thrown	0	3
Sacks-Yards Lost	3-23	4-27
Rushing	129	94
Rushing Attempts	32	16
Yards per rush	4.0	5.9
Red Zone (Made-Att)	4-5	2-2
Penalties	3-14	5-31
Turnovers	0	4
Fumbles lost	0	1
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	35:01	24:59

Grok Expert vs the model

Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.

Grok Expert

Play of the Day · hand-picked

GB +3-108

56% confidence

Projected GB 22.00 – 23.00 NE

Hit

Model

Computer pick · Spread · Strong play

GB +3-108

56% confidence

Projected GB 22.00 – 23.00 NE

Hit

They agree: the model projects NE by 1.00, which also covers GB +3.

Why Grok Expert likes GB +3: Both teams are 5-3; Green Bay is 5-3 ATS with a 10-day rest after Thursday Night Football and has not allowed more than 20 points in any of its last five. New England is 3-0 at home but without A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson, and Hunter Henry is questionable. Taking the 5-3 road dog at +3 (-108).

Computer pick · SpreadStrong play

GB +3

56%

At lock GB 22.00–23.00 NE · NE by 1.0 pts vs GB +3 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Christian Watson · GB
171 YDS · over 73.5
Jordan Love · GB
23/29 C/ATT · 372 YDS
Drake Maye · NE
21/38 C/ATT · 299 YDS
Kaleb Johnson · GB
14 CAR · 68 YDS
Corey Kiner · NE
8 CAR · 55 YDS
DeMario Douglas · NE
5 REC · 102 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · C. Watson Under 73.5 rec yds

Strong play-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Packers vs Patriots pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is GB +3, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day