NFLFinalLumen Field

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Final · Fox

3–17

CardinalsSeahawks

Final

Arizona Cardinals

3-6 · L1

178 PF · 255 PA

Final

Seattle Seahawks

5-4 · W1

202 PF · 162 PA

ARI 19%SEA 81%

At lock: projected ARI 14.91–26.80 SEA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 3:28 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1463217370

Winner called · off by 22

Most typical sim

ARI 15 – SEA 27

Final

ARI 3 – SEA 17

Winner: Seahawks (86%)
Spread: SEA -8.5 covers (63%)
Total: Over 39.5 (64%)
Score error (both teams)22

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Wilson rec yds	—	55	60	off 5
J. Brissett pass yds	—	212	0	off -212
T. McBride rec yds	—	64	54	off -10
T. Allgeier rush yds	—	34	46	off 12
D. Lock pass yds	—	71	175	off 104
E. Wilson rush yds	—	42	0	off -42
J. Smith-Njigba rec yds	—	115	51	off -64
R. Shaheed rec yds	—	28	0	off -28

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ARI vs SEA

The model

How this number was built

ARI 14.91–26.80 SEA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SEA +0.8 vs ARI -8.4 · pred margin +10.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) SEA off -0.03, def stop +0.10 · ARI off -0.04, def stop -0.05 · model SEA 27.7–16.2 ARI
Home field
+2.4 pts to SEA
Record
SEA 5-4 · ARI 3-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SEA -9.5 / total 40.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ARI	3	0	0	0	3
SEA	0	14	3	0	17

How the points were scored

FGQ1 9:233–0
Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:233–7
AJ Barner 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)
TDQ2 0:153–14
AJ Barner 7 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)
FGQ3 3:503–17
Jason Myers 45 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ARI	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Gardner Minshew II #15	21/30	166	5.5	0	0	3-18	39.4	83.5
Team	21/30	148	5.5	0	0	3-18	--	83.5

Rushing

ARI	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Tyler Allgeier #22	17	46	2.7	17
Gardner Minshew II #15	1	4	4.0	4
Team	18	50	2.8	17

Receiving

ARI	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG	TGTS
Michael Wilson #14	6	60	10.0	23	7
Trey McBride #85	7	54	7.7	19	8
Reggie Virgil #82	1	25	25.0	25	4
Elijah Higgins #84	2	11	5.5	7	2
Teagan Quitoriano #47	1	8	8.0	8	1
Devin Duvernay #81	2	8	4.0	5	2
Simi Fehoko #80	0	0	0.0	0	1
Tyler Allgeier #22	2	0	0.0	3	3
Evan Hull #26	0	0	0.0	0	1
Team	21	166	7.9	25	29

Fumbles

ARI	FUM	REC
Gardner Minshew II #15	1	0
Trey McBride #85	1	1
Isaiah Adams #74	0	1
Team	2	2

Defense

ARI	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Andrew Wingard #28	12	4	0	0	0
Budda Baker #3	11	3	0	0	0
Mack Wilson Sr. #1	6	2	0	1	1
Walter Nolen III #97	6	2	0	0	1
Max Melton #16	5	3	0	2	0
Jack Gibbens #50	4	2	0	0	0
Kalen King #35	3	2	0	1	0
Baron Browning #5	3	1	0	0	0
Cody Simon #0	3	1	0	0	0
Denzel Burke #29	3	1	0	1	0
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson #42	2	2	0	0	0
Andrew Billings #95	2	1	1	0	0
L.J. Collier #91	2	1	0	0	0
Zaven Collins #25	2	1	0	0	1
Dante Stills #55	2	0	0	0	0
Jordan Burch #52	2	0	0	0	0
Josh Sweat #10	1	1	0	0	0
Roy Lopez #51	1	1	1	0	0
Simi Fehoko #80	1	1	0	0	0
Kei'Trel Clark #13	1	1	0	0	0
Darius Robinson #56	1	0	0	0	0
Team	73	30	2	5	3

Kick returns

ARI	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Devin Duvernay #81	3	64	21.3	24	0
Team	3	64	21.3	24	0

Punt returns

ARI	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Devin Duvernay #81	2	21	10.5	14	0
Team	2	21	10.5	14	0

Kicking

ARI	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chad Ryland #38	1/1	100.0	28	0/0	3
Team	1/1	100.0	28	0/0	3

Punting

ARI	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Blake Gillikin #12	6	269	44.8	0	4	55
Team	6	269	44.8	0	4	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARI	SEA
1st Downs	13	21
Passing 1st downs	6	9
Rushing 1st downs	4	9
1st downs from penalties	3	3
3rd down efficiency	4-13	7-14
4th down efficiency	1-2	0-0
Total Plays	51	61
Total Yards	198	295
Yards per Play	3.9	4.8
Total Drives	9	9
Passing	148	175
Comp/Att	21/30	19/28
Yards per pass	4.5	6.3
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Sacks-Yards Lost	3-18	0-0
Rushing	50	120
Rushing Attempts	18	33
Yards per rush	2.8	3.6
Red Zone (Made-Att)	0-2	2-2
Penalties	9-97	9-83
Turnovers	0	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	28:21	31:39

Computer pick · Spread

ARI +12.5

51%

At lock ARI 14.91–26.80 SEA · SEA by 11.9 pts vs ARI +12.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA
51 YDS · under 101.5
Gardner Minshew II · ARI
21/30 C/ATT · 166 YDS
Drew Lock · SEA
19/28 C/ATT · 175 YDS
Tyler Allgeier · ARI
17 CAR · 46 YDS
Zach Charbonnet · SEA
16 CAR · 77 YDS
Michael Wilson · ARI
6 REC · 60 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · J. Smith-Njigba Under 101.5 rec yds

Strong play-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Cardinals vs Seahawks pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ARI +12.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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