Overline Sports
Board/NFL
NFLFinalLevi's Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Final · Fox

Raiders17–3849ers
Raiders49ers
Final
Las Vegas Raiders
4-5 · L1
238 PF · 268 PA
17
Final
Final
San Francisco 49ers
7-1 · W1
235 PF · 156 PA
38
LV 23%SF 77%

At lock: projected LV 20.87–30.84 SF

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 3:28 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1245108323

Winner called · off by 11
Most typical sim
LV 21 – SF 31
Final
LV 17 – SF 38
  • Winner: 49ers (81%)
  • Spread: SF -10 covers (48% vs 48%, push 3%)
  • Total: Over 51.5 (51%)
  • Score error (both teams)11
PlayerLineSim medianActualLean
K. Cousins pass yds—225216off -9
T. Tucker rec yds—5055off 5
B. Bowers rec yds—73111off 38
A. Jeanty rush yds—4525off -20
C. McCaffrey rush yds—5968off 9
B. Purdy pass yds—243232off -11
M. Evans rec yds—590off -59
C. McCaffrey rec yds—4219off -23

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LV vs SF

The model

How this number was built

LV 20.87–30.84 SF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    SF +6.2 vs LV -6.8 · pred margin +10.3
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    EPA/play (opp-adj.) SF off +0.12, def stop +0.01 · LV off -0.03, def stop -0.05 · model SF 30.4–19.5 LV
  • Home field
    +2.4 pts to SF
  • Record
    SF 7-1 · LV 4-5
  • Market prior
    Blended 67% toward SF -8.5 / total 51.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LV0107017
SF14714338

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 9:320–7

    Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)

  • TDQ1 1:520–14

    Brock Purdy 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)

  • TDQ2 12:417–14

    Kirk Cousins 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)

  • TDQ2 5:157–21

    Christian McCaffrey 12 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)

  • FGQ2 1:1210–21

    Matt Gay 50 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 14:4310–28

    Jaden Dugger 35 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)

  • TDQ3 9:2917–28

    Brock Bowers 21 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)

  • TDQ3 0:3617–35

    Jordan Watkins 37 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)

  • FGQ4 5:2117–38

    Eddy Pineiro 35 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LVC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTSACKSQBRRTG
Kirk Cousins
#8
22/322166.8130-059.458.9
Team22/322166.8130-0--58.9

Rushing

LVCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Ashton Jeanty
#2
6254.209
Brock Bowers
#89
122.002
Kirk Cousins
#8
200.012
Mike Washington Jr.
#4
6-3-0.504
Team15241.619

Receiving

LVRECYDSAVGTDLONGTGTS
Brock Bowers
#89
711115.91338
Tre Tucker
#1
45513.80188
Michael Mayer
#87
33712.30243
Jack Bech
#18
199.0092
Jalen Nailor
#9
294.5064
Ashton Jeanty
#2
5-5-1.0037
Team222169.813332

Fumbles

LVFUMLOSTREC
Michael Mayer
#87
110
Brock Bowers
#89
110
Kirk Cousins
#8
101
Team321

Defense

LVTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HTSTD
Nakobe Dean
#17
19701000
Quay Walker
#7
11300000
Jeremy Chinn
#11
9600000
Tommy Eichenberg
#44
7300000
Treydan Stukes
#31
5300100
Maxx Crosby
#98
4211020
Eric Stokes
#5
4200000
Tim Keenan III
#91
4100000
Hezekiah Masses
#35
3000000
Folorunso Fatukasi
#94
2100000
Dareke Young
#81
2100000
Tonka Hemingway
#97
2100000
Taron Johnson
#3
2000000
Kwity Paye
#95
2000010
Jermod McCoy
#28
2000200
Tre Tucker
#1
1100000
Darien Porter
#26
1100000
Adam Butler
#69
1000000
Dylan Laube
#23
1000000
Cody Lindenberg
#55
1000000
Team833212330

Interceptions

LVINTYDSTD
Treydan Stukes
#31
1260
Team1260

Kick returns

LVNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Dylan Laube
#23
719728.1540
Dareke Young
#81
0250.0210
Team722231.7540

Kicking

LVFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Matt Gay
#14
1/1100.0502/25
Team1/1100.0502/25

Punting

LVNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
AJ Cole
#6
14545.00145
Team14545.00145

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

LVSF
1st Downs1427
Passing 1st downs1112
Rushing 1st downs212
1st downs from penalties13
3rd down efficiency6-98-13
4th down efficiency0-12-3
Total Plays4769
Total Yards240414
Yards per Play5.16.0
Total Drives99
Passing216224
Comp/Att22/3217/25
Yards per pass6.88.6
Interceptions thrown31
Sacks-Yards Lost0-01-8
Rushing24190
Rushing Attempts1543
Yards per rush1.64.4
Red Zone (Made-Att)1-23-4
Penalties5-297-59
Turnovers51
Fumbles lost20
Defensive / Special Teams TDs01
Possession21:4238:18
Computer pick · Spread
LV +10
50%

At lock LV 20.87–30.84 SF · SF by 10.0 pts vs LV +10 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Prop Ashton Jeanty · LV

    25 YDS · needs 1.5 more

  • Kirk Cousins · LV

    22/32 C/ATT · 216 YDS

  • Brock Purdy · SF

    17/25 C/ATT · 232 YDS

  • Kaelon Black · SF

    11 CAR · 70 YDS

  • Brock Bowers · LV

    7 REC · 111 YDS

  • Jordan Watkins · SF

    4 REC · 86 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · A. Jeanty Over 26.5 rush yds

-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Raiders vs 49ers pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LV +10, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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