Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Final · CBS
44–22
At lock: projected HOU 23.14–18.96 LAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 3:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1228330704
- Winner: Texans (64%)
- Spread: LAC +6 covers (54% vs 43%, push 3%)
- Total: Over 40.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)24
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Hampton rush yds | — | 47 | 60 | off 13 |
| L. McConkey rec yds | — | 45 | 0 | off -45 |
| Q. Johnston rec yds | — | 39 | 58 | off 19 |
| J. Herbert pass yds | — | 205 | 193 | off -12 |
| C.J. Stroud pass yds | — | 243 | 384 | off 141 |
| N. Collins rec yds | — | 67 | 55 | off -12 |
| W. Marks rush yds | — | 40 | 70 | off 30 |
| D. Schultz rec yds | — | 44 | 42 | off -2 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: HOU vs LAC
The model
How this number was built
HOU 23.14–18.96 LAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLAC -3.1 vs HOU +2.8 · pred margin -5.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)EPA/play (opp-adj.) LAC off -0.13, def stop +0.04 · HOU off +0.03, def stop +0.02 · model LAC 19.4–24.4 HOU
- Home field+2.4 pts to LAC
- RecordLAC 0-8 · HOU 3-5
- Market priorBlended 67% toward HOU -5.5 / total 40.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 10 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 44 |
| LAC | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
How the points were scored
TDQ1 10:167–0Xavier Hutchinson 17 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
FGQ1 6:147–3Cameron Dicker 52 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ1 3:1210–3
Ka'imi Fairbairn 56 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 8:1310–6
Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 5:1110–9
Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 4:2817–9
Tank Dell 63 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
- TDQ2 0:3124–9
Kayshon Boutte 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
- TDQ3 8:1631–9
Nico Collins 13 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
- TDQ4 14:1238–9
Kayshon Boutte 63 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
- TDQ4 12:4738–15
Quentin Johnston 58 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- FGQ4 8:5041–15
Ka'imi Fairbairn 31 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 4:1941–22
Derius Davis 15 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Cameron Dicker Kick)
- FGQ4 2:2044–22
Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| HOU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | SACKS | QBR | RTG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C.J. Stroud #7 | 21/35 | 384 | 11.0 | 5 | 1 | 1-10 | 89.8 | 125.5 |
 Davis Mills #10 | 1/2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 90.5 | 58.3 |
| Team | 22/37 | 381 | 10.6 | 5 | 1 | 1-10 | -- | 124.0 |
Rushing
| HOU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Woody Marks #4 | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 | 14 |
C.J. Stroud #7 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Emari Demercado #21 | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | 11 |
Davis Mills #10 | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | -1 |
| Team | 28 | 104 | 3.7 | 0 | 14 |
Receiving
| HOU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | TGTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kayshon Boutte #14 | 4 | 125 | 31.3 | 2 | 63 | 5 |
 Tank Dell #1 | 4 | 105 | 26.3 | 1 | 63 | 9 |
 Nico Collins #12 | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 1 | 19 | 4 |
 Dalton Schultz #86 | 2 | 42 | 21.0 | 0 | 28 | 4 |
 Xavier Hutchinson #19 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 | 17 | 5 |
 Marvin Harrison Jr. #18 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 15 | 3 |
Emari Demercado #21 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
Woody Marks #4 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 Dare Ogunbowale #23 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Team | 22 | 391 | 17.8 | 5 | 63 | 37 |
Fumbles
| HOU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Tank Dell #1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 Calen Bullock #2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| HOU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HTS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Azeez Al-Shaair #0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Pitre #5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Calen Bullock #2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 M.J. Stewart #29 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Henry To'oTo'o #39 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tommy Togiai #72 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sheldon Rankins #98 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Kayden McDonald #93 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jadeveon Clowney #90 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Jake Hansen #35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek Stingley Jr. #24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Anderson Jr. #51 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Logan Hall #96 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Danielle Hunter #55 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Naquan Jones #91 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamari Lassiter #3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
 Sabastian Harsh #54 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Dare Ogunbowale #23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Dalton Schultz #86 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ja'Marcus Ingram #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brevin Jordan #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wade Woodaz #30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dominique Robinson #94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 68 | 48 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 0 |
Interceptions
| HOU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Derek Stingley Jr. #24 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| HOU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tremon Smith #11 | 4 | 97 | 24.3 | 29 | 0 |
Xavier Hutchinson #19 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 125 | 25.0 | 29 | 0 |
Punt returns
| HOU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tremon Smith #11 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 |
Tank Dell #1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 10 | 0 |
Kicking
| HOU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ka'imi Fairbairn #15 | 3/3 | 100.0 | 56 | 5/5 | 14 |
| Team | 3/3 | 100.0 | 56 | 5/5 | 14 |
Punting
| HOU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kai Kroeger #38 | 3 | 106 | 35.3 | 0 | 1 | 38 |
| Team | 3 | 106 | 35.3 | 0 | 1 | 38 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HOU | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 22 | 14 |
| Passing 1st downs | 15 | 7 |
| Rushing 1st downs | 4 | 5 |
| 1st downs from penalties | 3 | 2 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-14 | 5-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 2-4 |
| Total Plays | 66 | 68 |
| Total Yards | 485 | 315 |
| Yards per Play | 7.3 | 4.6 |
| Total Drives | 13 | 13 |
| Passing | 381 | 177 |
| Comp/Att | 22/37 | 15/30 |
| Yards per pass | 10.0 | 4.7 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Sacks-Yards Lost | 1-10 | 8-40 |
| Rushing | 104 | 138 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 30 |
| Yards per rush | 3.7 | 4.6 |
| Red Zone (Made-Att) | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Penalties | 6-36 | 9-79 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Defensive / Special Teams TDs | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 28:33 | 31:27 |
At lock HOU 23.14–18.96 LAC · 1.6 pts over 40.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp Omarion Hampton · LAC
60 YDS · covers 28.5C.J. Stroud · HOU
21/35 C/ATT · 384 YDSJustin Herbert · LAC
13/23 C/ATT · 193 YDSWoody Marks · HOU
18 CAR · 70 YDSKayshon Boutte · HOU
4 REC · 125 YDSQuentin Johnston · LAC
1 REC · 58 YDS
Data-Driven Pick · O. Hampton Over 28.5 rush yds
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Texans vs Chargers pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 40.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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