NFLFinalLincoln Financial Field

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Final · Fox

19–11

GiantsEagles

Final

New York Giants

5-2-1 · L1

203 PF · 196 PA

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

2-7 · L7

148 PF · 221 PA

NYG 58%PHI 42%

At lock: projected NYG 21.36–18.65 PHI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:56 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1261885942

Winner called · off by 10

Most typical sim

NYG 21 – PHI 19

Final

NYG 19 – PHI 11

Winner: Giants (59%)
Spread: NYG -3 covers (47% vs 45%, push 8%)
Total: Over 38.5 (61%)
Score error (both teams)10

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
T. McKee pass yds	—	126	0	off -126
D. Smith rec yds	—	65	0	off -65
M. Nabers rec yds	—	75	43	off -32
J. Winston pass yds	—	164	71	off -93
D. Goedert rec yds	—	40	50	off 10
S. Barkley rush yds	—	54	22	off -32
C. Skattebo rush yds	—	55	0	off -55
I. Likely rec yds	—	42	53	off 11

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NYG vs PHI

The model

How this number was built

NYG 21.36–18.65 PHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
PHI -6.1 vs NYG -3.4 · pred margin -2.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) PHI off -0.12, def stop -0.01 · NYG off -0.01, def stop +0.01 · model PHI 20.9–21.6 NYG
Home field
+2.4 pts to PHI
Record
PHI 2-7 · NYG 5-2-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward NYG -3 / total 38.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NYG	6	0	7	6	19
PHI	8	0	0	3	11

How the points were scored

FGQ1 10:303–0
Dominic Zvada 53 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 5:316–0
Dominic Zvada 49 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:096–8
Saquon Barkley 3 Yd Rush (Joe Milton Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ3 2:2513–8
Isaiah Likely 5 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick)
FGQ4 9:0616–8
Dominic Zvada 38 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 4:2419–8
Dominic Zvada 49 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 1:5619–11
Jake Elliott 45 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NYG	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	SACKS	QBR	RTG
J.J. McCarthy #18	12/19	127	6.7	0	5-29	27.2	82.6
Jameis Winston #19	6/8	71	8.9	1	1-6	96.7	141.1
Team	18/27	163	7.3	1	6-35	--	100.5

Rushing

NYG	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Devin Singletary #26	21	31	1.5	12
J.J. McCarthy #18	4	22	5.5	11
Greg Desrosiers Jr. #30	3	20	6.7	9
Jameis Winston #19	2	11	5.5	10
Darnell Mooney #17	1	-4	-4.0	-4
Team	31	80	2.6	12

Receiving

NYG	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
Darnell Mooney #17	3	54	18.0	0	27	3
Isaiah Likely #9	5	53	10.6	1	27	6
Malik Nabers #1	5	43	8.6	0	22	8
Malachi Fields #88	3	40	13.3	0	16	5
Devin Singletary #26	2	8	4.0	0	7	3
Chris Manhertz #85	0	0	0.0	0	0	1
Jalin Hyatt #81	0	0	0.0	0	0	1
Team	18	198	11.0	1	27	27

Fumbles

NYG	FUM	LOST	REC
Charlie Jones #89	1	1	0
J.J. McCarthy #18	1	0	0
Malik Nabers #1	1	0	1
Micah McFadden #41	0	0	1
Francis Mauigoa #65	0	0	1
Team	3	1	3

Defense

NYG	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Arvell Reese #52	12	10	3	3	0	3
Micah McFadden #41	9	5	1	1	0	2
Greg Newsome II #20	6	6	0	0	1	0
Dru Phillips #22	5	2	0	0	0	0
Kayvon Thibodeaux #5	4	3	0	0	0	2
Jevon Holland #8	4	2	0	2	0	0
Deonte Banks #2	4	2	0	0	0	0
Malik Harrison #54	3	2	0	0	0	0
Ar'Darius Washington #24	3	2	0	0	2	0
Bobby Jamison-Travis #97	3	2	0	0	0	0
DJ Reader #98	2	2	1	2	0	2
Dawuane Smoot #96	2	1	1	1	0	1
Darius Alexander #91	2	1	1	1	1	1
Zaire Barnes #46	2	1	0	0	0	0
Tyler Nubin #27	2	1	0	0	0	0
Elijah Campbell #28	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jason Pinnock #25	1	1	0	0	0	0
Trace Ford #48	1	1	0	0	0	0
Shelby Harris #93	1	0	0	0	0	0
Abdul Carter #3	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jack Kelly #51	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	69	45	7	10	4	11

Punt returns

NYG	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Charlie Jones #89	3	25	8.3	13	0
Team	3	25	8.3	13	0

Kicking

NYG	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Dominic Zvada #34	4/4	100.0	53	1/1	13
Team	4/4	100.0	53	1/1	13

Punting

NYG	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Jordan Stout #15	6	314	52.3	0	5	62
Team	6	314	52.3	0	5	62

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NYG	PHI
1st Downs	15	13
Passing 1st downs	9	7
Rushing 1st downs	5	4
1st downs from penalties	1	2
3rd down efficiency	6-17	5-18
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-3
Total Plays	64	66
Total Yards	243	220
Yards per Play	3.8	3.3
Total Drives	12	13
Passing	163	128
Comp/Att	18/27	18/34
Yards per pass	4.9	3.1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Sacks-Yards Lost	6-35	7-41
Rushing	80	92
Rushing Attempts	31	25
Yards per rush	2.6	3.7
Red Zone (Made-Att)	1-1	1-1
Penalties	9-86	6-56
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	34:45	25:15

Computer pick · Spread

PHI +3.5

52%

At lock NYG 21.36–18.65 PHI · NYG by 2.7 pts vs PHI +3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop Darnell Mooney · NYG
3 REC · covers 1.5
J.J. McCarthy · NYG
12/19 C/ATT · 127 YDS
Joe Milton · PHI
18/34 C/ATT · 169 YDS
Devin Singletary · NYG
21 CAR · 31 YDS
Makai Lemon · PHI
6 REC · 61 YDS
Arvell Reese · NYG
12 TOT · 10 SOLO

Data-Driven Pick · D. Mooney Over 1.5 rec

-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Giants vs Eagles pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PHI +3.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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