NFLFinalNorthwest Stadium

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Final · Fox

20–13

RamsCommanders

Final

Los Angeles Rams

5-4 · W3

214 PF · 181 PA

Final

Washington Commanders

2-5-1 · W1

196 PF · 223 PA

LAR 64%WSH 36%

At lock: projected LAR 26.03–21.23 WSH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:56 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1312218799

Winner called · off by 14

Most typical sim

LAR 26 – WSH 21

Final

LAR 20 – WSH 13

Winner: Rams (66%)
Spread: LAR -4.5 covers (52%)
Total: Under 47.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)14

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Stafford pass yds	—	264	228	off -36
J. Croskey-Merritt rush yds	—	45	0	off -45
S. Diggs rec yds	—	47	51	off 4
K. Williams rush yds	—	68	45	off -23
A. Kaliakmanis pass yds	—	182	0	off -182
C. Okonkwo rec yds	—	33	56	off 23
P. Nacua rec yds	—	97	150	off 53
K. Williams rec yds	—	25	16	off -9

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LAR vs WSH

The model

How this number was built

LAR 26.03–21.23 WSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WSH -2.9 vs LAR +3.7 · pred margin -4.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) WSH off +0.00, def stop -0.05 · LAR off +0.04, def stop +0.08 · model WSH 21.5–24.7 LAR
Home field
+2.4 pts to WSH
Record
WSH 2-5-1 · LAR 5-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward LAR -4.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LAR	3	3	7	7	20
WSH	3	7	3	0	13

How the points were scored

FGQ1 9:070–3
Drew Stevens 37 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 2:103–3
Brandon McManus 33 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:003–10
Van Jefferson 7 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)
FGQ2 0:006–10
Brandon McManus 20 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 11:2913–10
Blake Corum 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)
FGQ3 3:2413–13
Drew Stevens 41 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 12:5120–13
Puka Nacua 7 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LAR	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Matthew Stafford #9	26/43	228	5.3	1	1	1-9	35.6	72.6
Team	26/43	219	5.3	1	1	1-9	--	72.6

Rushing

LAR	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Blake Corum #24	11	58	5.3	1	15
Kyren Williams #23	15	45	3.0	0	9
Puka Nacua #12	2	20	10.0	0	15
Matthew Stafford #9	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	29	124	4.3	1	15

Receiving

LAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
Puka Nacua #12	14	150	10.7	1	21	19
Konata Mumpfield #4	2	20	10.0	0	13	2
Tutu Atwell #8	2	16	8.0	0	12	5
Kyren Williams #23	3	16	5.3	0	9	4
Tyler Higbee #89	1	13	13.0	0	13	5
Colby Parkinson #84	4	13	3.3	0	10	4
Blake Corum #24	0	0	0.0	0	0	2
Team	26	228	8.8	1	21	41

Fumbles

LAR	FUM	LOST	REC
Puka Nacua #12	1	1	0
Omar Speights #48	0	0	1
Byron Young #0	0	0	1
Team	1	1	2

Defense

LAR	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Kam Curl #3	8	4	0	0	0	0
Nate Landman #53	7	3	0	0	1	0
Quentin Lake #37	7	3	0	0	0	0
Emmanuel Forbes Jr. #1	6	6	0	1	3	0
Jaylen McCollough #2	5	4	0	0	0	0
Braden Fiske #55	5	3	0.5	1	0	1
Josh Wallace #30	5	3	0	0	0	0
Omar Speights #48	5	2	0	1	0	0
Byron Young #0	4	2	0	0	1	1
Myles Garrett #95	3	3	3	3	0	3
Shaun Dolac #56	3	1	0.5	0	0	1
Warren McClendon Jr. #71	1	1	0	0	0	0
Puka Nacua #12	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ty Hamilton #57	1	1	0	0	0	0
Damarion Williams #26	1	1	0	0	0	0
Aaron Donald #99	1	0	0	0	0	0
Grant Stuard #44	1	0	0	0	0	0
Wesley Bailey #47	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Davis #90	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kamren Kinchens #5	1	0	0	0	0	0
Josaiah Stewart #10	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	68	38	4	6	5	6

Kick returns

LAR	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jordan Whittington #88	1	29	29.0	29
Ronnie Rivers #20	1	25	25.0	25
Team	2	54	27.0	29

Kicking

LAR	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Brandon McManus #19	2/2	100.0	33	2/2	8
Team	2/2	100.0	33	2/2	8

Punting

LAR	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ethan Evans #42	5	264	52.8	1	2	59
Team	5	264	52.8	1	2	59

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAR	WSH
1st Downs	22	16
Passing 1st downs	14	13
Rushing 1st downs	7	1
1st downs from penalties	1	2
3rd down efficiency	3-14	3-12
4th down efficiency	3-3	0-1
Total Plays	73	58
Total Yards	343	313
Yards per Play	4.7	5.4
Total Drives	11	11
Passing	219	253
Comp/Att	26/43	24/35
Yards per pass	5.0	6.5
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Sacks-Yards Lost	1-9	4-21
Rushing	124	60
Rushing Attempts	29	19
Yards per rush	4.3	3.2
Red Zone (Made-Att)	2-4	1-2
Penalties	10-70	6-39
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	1	2
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	31:52	28:08

Computer pick · Total

Under 47.5

50%

At lock LAR 26.03–21.23 WSH · 0.2 pts under 47.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Puka Nacua · LAR
150 YDS · over 93.5
Matthew Stafford · LAR
26/43 C/ATT · 228 YDS
Jayden Daniels · WSH
24/35 C/ATT · 274 YDS
Blake Corum · LAR
11 CAR · 58 YDS
Rachaad White · WSH
7 CAR · 28 YDS
Van Jefferson · WSH
5 REC · 58 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · P. Nacua Under 93.5 rec yds

Strong play-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rams vs Commanders pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 47.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day