NFLFinalHard Rock Stadium

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Final · CBS

19–9

LionsDolphins

Final

Detroit Lions

6-2 · W4

222 PF · 189 PA

Final

Miami Dolphins

1-7 · L2

126 PF · 200 PA

DET 67%MIA 33%

At lock: projected DET 28.24–22.19 MIA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:56 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1295441180

Winner called · off by 22

Most typical sim

DET 28 – MIA 22

Final

DET 19 – MIA 9

Winner: Lions (70%)
Spread: MIA +6.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 49.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)22

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Willis pass yds	—	149	128	off -21
O. Gordon II rush yds	—	40	55	off 15
M. Washington rec yds	—	35	21	off -14
C. Douglas rec yds	—	54	70	off 16
A. St. Brown rec yds	—	79	86	off 7
J. Williams rec yds	—	62	31	off -31
J. Goff pass yds	—	273	170	off -103
J. Gibbs rush yds	—	95	74	off -21

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DET vs MIA

The model

How this number was built

DET 28.24–22.19 MIA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MIA -11.2 vs DET +2.1 · pred margin -7.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) MIA off -0.05, def stop -0.07 · DET off +0.05, def stop -0.03 · model MIA 21.3–25.9 DET
Home field
+2.4 pts to MIA
Record
MIA 1-7 · DET 6-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward DET -6.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DET	3	3	10	3	19
MIA	3	0	3	3	9

How the points were scored

FGQ1 8:223–0
Jake Bates 28 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 1:023–3
Zane Gonzalez 34 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 3:306–3
Jake Bates 40 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 9:149–3
Jake Bates 33 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 4:009–6
Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 1:2016–6
Jahmyr Gibbs 8 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)
FGQ4 9:2616–9
Zane Gonzalez 34 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 4:2819–9
Jake Bates 43 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

DET	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jared Goff #16	17/25	170	6.8	1	3-13	19.3	70.4
Jack Fox #3	1/1	11	11.0	0	0-0	--	112.5
Team	18/26	168	7.0	1	3-13	--	72.7

Rushing

DET	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jahmyr Gibbs #0	20	74	3.7	1	16
Sione Vaki #33	3	14	4.7	0	8
Jameson Williams #1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Jared Goff #16	4	5	1.3	0	6
Team	28	102	3.6	1	16

Receiving

DET	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG	TGTS
Amon-Ra St. Brown #14	8	86	10.8	17	10
Sam LaPorta #87	4	32	8.0	11	5
Jameson Williams #1	1	31	31.0	31	2
Tay Martin #17	1	11	11.0	11	1
Isaac TeSlaa #18	1	9	9.0	9	2
Sione Vaki #33	2	7	3.5	6	2
DeAndre Carter #86	1	5	5.0	5	1
Tyler Conklin #83	0	0	0.0	0	1
Jahmyr Gibbs #0	0	0	0.0	0	1
Team	18	181	10.1	31	25

Defense

DET	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Malcolm Rodriguez #44	8	2	0	0	1	0
Brian Branch #32	7	4	0	0	0	0
Roger McCreary #21	6	4	0	0	1	0
Chuck Clark #36	5	3	0	0	1	0
Derrick Moore #8	3	2	2	2	0	2
Alim McNeill #54	3	1	1	1	0	1
Tyleik Williams #91	3	1	0	0	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin #23	2	2	0	1	0	0
Derrick Barnes #55	2	2	0	1	0	1
Tyler Lacy #93	2	1	0	0	0	0
Aidan Hutchinson #97	2	1	0	0	0	1
Sione Vaki #33	2	1	0	0	0	0
Khalil Dorsey #30	1	1	0	0	0	0
Levi Onwuzurike #95	1	1	0	0	0	0
Amon-Ra St. Brown #14	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. #2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Nick Whiteside #38	1	1	0	0	0	0
Trevor Nowaske #53	1	1	0	0	0	0
Joe Bachie #35	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tay Martin #17	1	0	0	0	0	0
Christian Izien #5	1	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Lucas #61	0	0	0	0	0	1
Skyler Gill-Howard #50	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	54	30	3	5	3	7

Interceptions

DET	INT	YDS	TD
Chuck Clark #36	1	34	0
Team	1	34	0

Kick returns

DET	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jabari Small #26	2	52	26.0	27	0
Team	2	52	26.0	27	0

Kicking

DET	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jake Bates #39	4/4	100.0	43	1/1	13
Team	4/4	100.0	43	1/1	13

Punting

DET	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Jack Fox #3	1	54	54.0	0	1	54
Team	1	54	54.0	0	1	54

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DET	MIA
1st Downs	16	12
Passing 1st downs	8	8
Rushing 1st downs	7	3
1st downs from penalties	1	1
3rd down efficiency	3-12	4-12
4th down efficiency	4-4	1-2
Total Plays	57	50
Total Yards	270	228
Yards per Play	4.7	4.6
Total Drives	8	8
Passing	168	151
Comp/Att	18/26	14/26
Yards per pass	5.8	5.2
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Sacks-Yards Lost	3-13	3-23
Rushing	102	77
Rushing Attempts	28	21
Yards per rush	3.6	3.7
Red Zone (Made-Att)	1-4	0-3
Penalties	9-63	11-87
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	0
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	31:15	28:45

Computer pick · Spread

MIA +7

51%

At lock DET 28.24–22.19 MIA · DET by 6.0 pts vs MIA +7 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop Jahmyr Gibbs · DET
74 YDS · under 100.5
Jared Goff · DET
17/25 C/ATT · 170 YDS
Malik Willis · MIA
13/25 C/ATT · 128 YDS
Ollie Gordon II · MIA
16 CAR · 55 YDS
Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET
8 REC · 86 YDS
Caleb Douglas · MIA
6 REC · 70 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · J. Gibbs Under 100.5 rush yds

Strong play-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Lions vs Dolphins pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MIA +7, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day