NFLFinalBank of America Stadium

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Final · CBS

26–21

BroncosPanthers

Final

Denver Broncos

7-2 · W5

198 PF · 186 PA

Final

Carolina Panthers

3-5 · L3

199 PF · 219 PA

DEN 58%CAR 42%

At lock: projected DEN 23.68–20.82 CAR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:56 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1345774037

Called it

Most typical sim

DEN 24 – CAR 21

Final

DEN 26 – CAR 21

Winner: Broncos (60%)
Spread: DEN -3 covers (48% vs 44%, push 8%)
Total: Over 44.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
T. McMillan rec yds	—	69	56	off -13
C. Hubbard rush yds	—	59	79	off 20
J.K. Dobbins rush yds	—	49	18	off -31
B. Young pass yds	—	237	276	off 39
J. Coker rec yds	—	48	29	off -19
C. Sutton rec yds	—	37	45	off 8
J. Waddle rec yds	—	44	22	off -22
B. Nix pass yds	—	198	237	off 39

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DEN vs CAR

The model

How this number was built

DEN 23.68–20.82 CAR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CAR -1.8 vs DEN +2.3 · pred margin -2.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) CAR off +0.00, def stop -0.04 · DEN off +0.01, def stop +0.02 · model CAR 21.6–24.5 DEN
Home field
+2.4 pts to CAR
Record
CAR 3-5 · DEN 7-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward DEN -3 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DEN	10	3	0	13	26
CAR	0	7	7	7	21

How the points were scored

FGQ1 11:093–0
Wil Lutz 26 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 1:2310–0
Courtland Sutton 3 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)
TDQ2 1:2710–7
Tommy Tremble 10 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
FGQ2 0:0413–7
Wil Lutz 48 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 11:3013–14
Darren Waller 15 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
TDQ4 10:1719–14
Jonah Coleman 9 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ4 5:4126–14
Pat Bryant 26 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)
TDQ4 3:0526–21
Tetairoa McMillan 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

DEN	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo Nix #10	25/37	237	6.4	2	1	1-7	51.6	91.8
Team	25/37	230	6.4	2	1	1-7	--	91.8

Rushing

DEN	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonah Coleman #20	17	57	3.4	1	9
J.K. Dobbins #27	4	18	4.5	0	11
Marvin Mims Jr. #19	1	5	5.0	0	5
Bo Nix #10	5	2	0.4	0	1
Team	27	82	3.0	1	11

Receiving

DEN	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
Pat Bryant #13	4	56	14.0	1	26	5
Courtland Sutton #14	5	45	9.0	1	12	9
Evan Engram #1	4	33	8.3	0	19	5
Troy Franklin #11	3	31	10.3	0	14	4
Jonah Coleman #20	4	31	7.8	0	10	4
Jaylen Waddle #17	1	22	22.0	0	22	1
Adam Trautman #82	2	15	7.5	0	10	3
J.K. Dobbins #27	1	4	4.0	0	4	1
Marvin Mims Jr. #19	1	0	0.0	0	0	2
Team	25	237	9.5	2	26	34

Fumbles

DEN	FUM	REC
Bo Nix #10	1	0
Jonah Coleman #20	0	1
Nik Bonitto #15	0	1
Team	1	2

Defense

DEN	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jahdae Barron #23	8	6	0	0	0	0
JL Skinner #34	6	5	0	0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian #29	6	4	1	2	0	1
Alex Singleton #49	6	2	0	0	0	0
Justin Strnad #40	5	2	0	1	1	0
Taylor Rapp #30	4	4	0	0	0	0
Pat Surtain II #2	4	3	0	0	0	0
Devon Key #26	4	2	0	0	1	0
D.J. Jones #93	4	1	0	0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper #0	4	1	0.5	0	0	1
Dondrea Tillman #92	3	2	0	1	0	0
Nik Bonitto #15	2	2	1	2	0	1
Riley Moss #21	2	2	0	0	1	0
Zach Allen #99	2	1	0	0	0	1
Sai'vion Jones #95	2	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Prentice #46	1	1	0	0	0	0
Nate Adkins #45	1	1	0	0	0	0
Quinn Meinerz #77	1	1	0	0	0	0
Karene Reid #47	1	1	0	0	0	0
Malcolm Roach #97	1	0	0.5	0	0	1
Tyler Onyedim #98	1	0	0	0	0	0
Que Robinson #51	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	68	41	3	6	3	6

Interceptions

DEN	INT	YDS	TD
Devon Key #26	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

DEN	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Sean Fresch #37	2	62	31.0	41
Cody Schrader #25	1	18	18.0	18
Team	3	80	26.7	41

Punt returns

DEN	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Marvin Mims Jr. #19	3	22	7.3	11	0
Team	3	22	7.3	11	0

Kicking

DEN	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil Lutz #3	2/2	100.0	48	2/2	8
Team	2/2	100.0	48	2/2	8

Punting

DEN	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Jeremy Crawshaw #16	3	161	53.7	0	1	64
Team	3	161	53.7	0	1	64

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DEN	CAR
1st Downs	27	28
Passing 1st downs	17	18
Rushing 1st downs	4	5
1st downs from penalties	6	5
3rd down efficiency	6-10	3-10
4th down efficiency	0-0	3-3
Total Plays	65	62
Total Yards	312	353
Yards per Play	4.8	5.7
Total Drives	10	10
Passing	230	257
Comp/Att	25/37	28/39
Yards per pass	6.1	6.1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Sacks-Yards Lost	1-7	3-19
Rushing	82	96
Rushing Attempts	27	20
Yards per rush	3.0	4.8
Red Zone (Made-Att)	2-4	3-4
Penalties	8-50	13-119
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	31:55	28:05

Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

51%

At lock DEN 23.68–20.82 CAR · 1.0 pts over 43.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Darren Waller · CAR
8 REC · covers 1.5
Bo Nix · DEN
25/37 C/ATT · 237 YDS
Bryce Young · CAR
28/39 C/ATT · 276 YDS
Jonah Coleman · DEN
17 CAR · 57 YDS
Chuba Hubbard · CAR
16 CAR · 79 YDS
Pat Bryant · DEN
4 REC · 56 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · D. Waller Over 1.5 rec

-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Broncos vs Panthers pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 43.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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