NFLFinal/OTCaesars Superdome

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Final/OT · CBS

22–23

BrownsSaints

Final

Cleveland Browns

5-4 · L2

161 PF · 196 PA

Final

Final/OT

New Orleans Saints

3-5 · W1

185 PF · 216 PA

CLE 44%NO 56%

At lock: projected CLE 20.91–23.11 NO

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:56 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1480436274

Called it

Most typical sim

CLE 21 – NO 23

Final

CLE 22 – NO 23

Winner: Saints (58%)
Spread: CLE +3.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 42.5 (61%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
T. Shough pass yds	—	229	265	off 36
Q. Judkins rush yds	—	50	43	off -7
H. Fannin Jr. rec yds	—	47	42	off -5
A. Kamara rush yds	—	28	32	off 4
J. Johnson rec yds	—	41	34	off -7
D. Watson pass yds	—	220	0	off -220
C. Olave rec yds	—	81	98	off 17
D. Boston rec yds	—	50	98	off 48

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CLE vs NO

The model

How this number was built

CLE 20.91–23.11 NO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NO -2.9 vs CLE -5.4 · pred margin +4.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) NO off -0.02, def stop -0.04 · CLE off -0.09, def stop +0.00 · model NO 23.3–20.5 CLE
Home field
+2.4 pts to NO
Record
NO 3-5 · CLE 5-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward NO -4.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
CLE	0	3	3	10	6	22
NO	3	0	3	10	7	23

How the points were scored

FGQ1 7:200–3
Charlie Smyth 30 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 10:303–3
Andre Szmyt 41 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 9:016–3
Andre Szmyt 30 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 2:266–6
Charlie Smyth 27 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 5:386–9
Charlie Smyth 48 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 5:2113–9
KC Concepcion 64 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)
TDQ4 0:5813–16
Audric Estime 2 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)
FGQ4 0:0816–16
Andre Szmyt 51 Yd Field Goal
TDOT 4:1716–23
Juwan Johnson 15 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)
TDOT 1:0022–23
Harold Fannin Jr. 39 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

CLE	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Shedeur Sanders #2	19/31	297	9.6	2	0	5-37	40.2	114.6
Team	19/31	260	9.6	2	0	5-37	--	114.6

Rushing

CLE	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Quinshon Judkins #10	15	43	2.9	12
Shedeur Sanders #2	10	28	2.8	11
Dylan Sampson #22	8	21	2.6	6
KC Concepcion #1	1	3	3.0	3
Team	34	95	2.8	12

Receiving

CLE	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
Denzel Boston #12	6	98	16.3	0	60	7
KC Concepcion #1	4	85	21.3	1	64	6
Harold Fannin Jr. #44	2	42	21.0	1	39	2
Jerry Jeudy #3	2	37	18.5	0	30	4
Dylan Sampson #22	3	27	9.0	0	16	6
Tylan Wallace #16	1	6	6.0	0	6	1
Quinshon Judkins #10	1	2	2.0	0	2	1
Blake Whiteheart #86	0	0	0.0	0	0	1
Malachi Corley #11	0	0	0.0	0	0	1
Team	19	297	15.6	2	64	29

Fumbles

CLE	FUM	LOST	REC
Tyson Campbell #7	0	0	1
Donovan McMillon #31	0	0	1
Team	0	0	2

Defense

CLE	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Carson Schwesinger #49	15	10	2	2	0	2
Ronnie Hickman #33	9	4	0	0	2	0
Quincy Williams #5	7	5	0	0	0	0
Tyson Campbell #7	7	4	0	0	0	0
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren #28	6	3	0	1	0	0
Myles Harden #26	5	4	2	2	1	2
Denzel Ward #21	5	2	0	0	1	0
Grant Delpit #9	4	3	0	1	0	0
Mason Graham #94	4	1	0	0	0	1
Donovan McMillon #31	3	2	0	0	0	0
Sam Kamara #92	3	1	0	0	0	0
Isaiah McGuire #57	3	0	0	0	0	0
Winston Reid #59	2	2	0	0	0	0
Malachi Corley #11	2	2	0	0	0	0
Mike Hall Jr. #51	2	1	1	1	0	1
Jared Verse #8	2	0	0	0	0	0
Mekhi Blackmon #29	1	1	0	0	0	0
Adin Huntington #98	1	1	0	0	0	0
Derek Barnett #97	1	0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Thomas #24	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tylan Wallace #16	1	0	0	0	0	0
Sam Williams #54	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team	85	46	5	7	5	7

Kick returns

CLE	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Isaiah Bond #0	5	133	26.6	30
Malachi Corley #11	1	31	31.0	31
Team	6	164	27.3	31

Kicking

CLE	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andre Szmyt #25	3/3	100.0	51	1/1	10
Team	3/3	100.0	51	1/1	10

Punting

CLE	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Corey Bojorquez #13	5	267	53.4	0	1	59
Team	5	267	53.4	0	1	59

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CLE	NO
1st Downs	15	21
Passing 1st downs	10	9
Rushing 1st downs	4	10
1st downs from penalties	1	2
3rd down efficiency	8-18	7-16
4th down efficiency	0-2	0-0
Total Plays	70	72
Total Yards	355	396
Yards per Play	5.1	5.5
Total Drives	13	12
Passing	260	236
Comp/Att	19/31	21/35
Yards per pass	7.2	5.9
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Sacks-Yards Lost	5-37	5-29
Rushing	95	160
Rushing Attempts	34	32
Yards per rush	2.8	5.0
Red Zone (Made-Att)	0-2	2-5
Penalties	10-58	4-25
Turnovers	0	2
Fumbles lost	0	2
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	34:09	34:51

Computer pick · Total

Over 42.5

52%

At lock CLE 20.91–23.11 NO · 1.5 pts over 42.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Tyler Shough · NO
21 C/ATT · under 22.5
Shedeur Sanders · CLE
19/31 C/ATT · 297 YDS
Quinshon Judkins · CLE
15 CAR · 43 YDS
Audric Estime · NO
15 CAR · 72 YDS
Denzel Boston · CLE
6 REC · 98 YDS
Chris Olave · NO
7 REC · 98 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · T. Shough Under 22.5 cmp

Strong play-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Browns vs Saints pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 42.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day