NFLFinalSantiago Bernabéu

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Final · NFL Net

34–17

BengalsFalcons

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

6-2 · W4

240 PF · 175 PA

Final

Atlanta Falcons

3-6 · L2

188 PF · 223 PA

CIN 60%ATL 40%

At lock: projected CIN 27.17–23.90 ATL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 8:37 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1497213893

Winner called · off by 14

Most typical sim

CIN 27 – ATL 24

Final

CIN 34 – ATL 17

Winner: Bengals (61%)
Spread: CIN -3 covers (48% vs 43%, push 8%)
Total: Under 52.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)14

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
J. Burrow pass yds	—	266	271	off 5
M. Penix Jr. pass yds	—	210	162	off -48
K. Pitts Sr. rec yds	—	33	23	off -10
B. Robinson rush yds	—	90	100	off 10
D. London rec yds	—	75	68	off -7
C. Brown rush yds	—	51	57	off 6
T. Higgins rec yds	—	84	32	off -52
J. Chase rec yds	—	75	155	off 80

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CIN vs ATL

The model

How this number was built

CIN 27.17–23.90 ATL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ATL -4.7 vs CIN +4.4 · pred margin -3.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) ATL off -0.05, def stop +0.01 · CIN off +0.10, def stop -0.05 · model ATL 22.8–25.8 CIN
Home field
+2.4 pts to ATL
Record
ATL 3-6 · CIN 6-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward CIN -3 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CIN	7	17	7	3	34
ATL	10	0	7	0	17

How the points were scored

TDQ1 11:120–7
Charlie Woerner 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick)
TDQ1 8:497–7
Ja'Marr Chase 47 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)
FGQ1 2:567–10
Nick Folk 31 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 12:5614–10
Joe Burrow 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)
TDQ2 4:0321–10
Tee Higgins 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)
FGQ2 0:2424–10
Evan McPherson 57 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 6:1824–17
Bijan Robinson 1 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)
TDQ3 2:0531–17
Tee Higgins 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)
FGQ4 4:3634–17
Evan McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

CIN	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Joe Burrow #9	24/29	271	9.3	3	0	2-6	91.0	140.1
Team	24/29	265	9.3	3	0	2-6	--	140.1

Rushing

CIN	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chase Brown #30	9	57	6.3	0	19
Samaje Perine #34	11	43	3.9	0	14
Dohnte Meyers #81	1	16	16.0	0	16
Joe Burrow #9	3	7	2.3	1	7
Team	24	123	5.1	1	19

Receiving

CIN	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
Ja'Marr Chase #1	10	155	15.5	1	47	12
Dohnte Meyers #81	2	47	23.5	0	42	3
Tee Higgins #5	5	32	6.4	2	8	6
Chase Brown #30	3	18	6.0	0	11	3
Mike Gesicki #88	2	11	5.5	0	8	2
Mitchell Tinsley #82	1	4	4.0	0	4	1
Jack Endries #84	1	4	4.0	0	4	1
Team	24	271	11.3	3	47	28

Defense

CIN	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Bryan Cook #6	10	5	0	0
Barrett Carter #49	10	2	0	1
Demetrius Knight Jr. #44	8	5	0	0
Josh Newton #28	5	3	0	1
DJ Turner II #0	5	3	0	0
Jordan Battle #27	3	3	0	1
Boye Mafe #53	3	1	0	0
Cedric Johnson #52	3	1	0	0
B.J. Hill #92	3	0	0	0
PJ Jules #37	3	0	0	0
Joe Giles-Harris #43	2	1	0	0
Dexter Lawrence II #97	2	1	0	0
Dax Hill #23	2	1	1	0
Myles Murphy #99	2	1	0	0
Tahj Brooks #25	2	1	0	0
Tacario Davis #20	2	0	0	0
Oren Burks #42	1	0	0	0
Jonathan Allen #93	1	0	0	0
Samaje Perine #34	1	0	0	0
Russ Yeast #22	1	0	0	0
T.J. Slaton Jr. #98	1	0	0	0
DJ Ivey #38	1	0	0	1
Jack Kiser #45	1	0	0	0
Kris Jenkins Jr. #90	1	0	0	0
William Wagner #46	1	0	0	0
Team	74	28	1	4

Interceptions

CIN	INT	YDS	TD
Barrett Carter #49	1	6	0
Team	1	6	0

Kick returns

CIN	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Dohnte Meyers #81	4	100	25.0	29	0
Team	4	100	25.0	29	0

Kicking

CIN	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Evan McPherson #2	2/2	100.0	57	4/4	10
Team	2/2	100.0	57	4/4	10

Punting

CIN	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ryan Rehkow #8	2	106	53.0	0	1	55
Team	2	106	53.0	0	1	55

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CIN	ATL
1st Downs	24	20
Passing 1st downs	15	7
Rushing 1st downs	7	10
1st downs from penalties	2	3
3rd down efficiency	6-10	5-10
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-0
Total Plays	55	55
Total Yards	388	319
Yards per Play	7.1	5.8
Total Drives	9	9
Passing	265	162
Comp/Att	24/29	20/31
Yards per pass	8.5	5.2
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Sacks-Yards Lost	2-6	0-0
Rushing	123	157
Rushing Attempts	24	24
Yards per rush	5.1	6.5
Red Zone (Made-Att)	3-4	2-4
Penalties	6-43	12-88
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	0
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	29:56	30:04

Computer pick · Spread

CIN -3

51%

At lock CIN 27.17–23.90 ATL · CIN by 3.3 pts vs CIN -3 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Drake London · ATL
68 YDS · under 79.5
Joe Burrow · CIN
24/29 C/ATT · 271 YDS
Michael Penix Jr. · ATL
20/31 C/ATT · 162 YDS
Chase Brown · CIN
9 CAR · 57 YDS
Bijan Robinson · ATL
19 CAR · 100 YDS
Ja'Marr Chase · CIN
10 REC · 155 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · D. London Under 79.5 rec yds

Strong play-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bengals vs Falcons pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CIN -3, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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