Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars
Final · ESPN+
14–27
At lock: projected TROY 26.21–29.50 USA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 676985711
- Winner: South Alabama (59%)
- Spread: USA -3 covers (49% vs 44%, push 6%)
- Total: Over 55.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TROY vs USA
The model
How this number was built
TROY 26.21–29.50 USA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUSA -10.2 vs TROY -11.0 · pred margin +3.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.3 vs -1.6 · model USA 29.7–26.0 TROY
- Home field+3.0 pts to USA
- RecordUSA 5-5 · TROY 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward USA -3 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| USA | 14 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:340–7
Trae'von Dunbar 46 Yd Run (Dylan Freebury Kick)
- TDQ1 0:370–14
Trae'von Dunbar 44 Yd Run (Dylan Freebury Kick)
- TDQ2 11:217–14
Goose Crowder 45 Yd Run (Hayden Wolfe Kick)
- FGQ2 4:027–17
Dylan Freebury 29 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 10:527–20
Dylan Freebury 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 5:117–27
Bishop Davenport 28 Yd Run (Dylan Freebury Kick)
- TDQ4 14:1114–27
Nick Hampton 4 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Hayden Wolfe Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TROY | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Goose Crowder #9 | 24/41 | 231 | 5.6 | 1 | 0 | 36.6 |
| Team | 24/41 | 231 | 5.6 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| TROY | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goose Crowder #9 | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 1 | 45 |
 Gavin Griffin #0 | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 0 | 8 |
 Jordan Lovett #1 | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Bryce Burgess #22 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 33 | 123 | 3.7 | 1 | 45 |
Receiving
| TROY | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Noreel White #4 | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 0 | 24 |
Jordan Lovett #1 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 | 14 |
 Mojo Dortch #5 | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 | 18 |
 Howard Kinchen #18 | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 | 26 |
 Nick Hampton #19 | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 | 9 |
 TJ Lott #15 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 10 |
 TK Keyes #8 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Jace Petty #17 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Gavin Griffin #0 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 24 | 231 | 9.6 | 1 | 26 |
Fumbles
| TROY | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Goose Crowder #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| TROY | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Powe #6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Keno Jones #15 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamarion Keyes #9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Thompson #4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Miquon Merriweather #95 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kavion Henderson #25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Turner #7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 Doug Nelson #3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Perry #18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Steele #2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Clemons #11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Delvin Whitaker #98 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Hodge #44 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 RaKeem Davis #93 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keyshawn Campbell #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Goree Jr. #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Mosley #42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Makel Green #41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kam Curry #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donnie Smith #22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonathan Pennix #14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Knai Cook #10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| TROY | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TJ Lott #15 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
Punt returns
| TROY | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noreel White #4 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 9 | 0 |
Kicking
| TROY | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayden Wolfe #38 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| TROY | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Evan Crenshaw #28 | 5 | 202 | 40.4 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
| Team | 5 | 202 | 40.4 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TROY | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-17 | 5-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 354 | 368 |
| Passing | 231 | 122 |
| Comp/Att | 24/41 | 9/21 |
| Yards per pass | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Rushing | 123 | 246 |
| Rushing Attempts | 33 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Penalties | 9-95 | 7-65 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 32:32 | 27:28 |
Model projected TROY 26.21 – 29.50 USA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Goose Crowder · TROY
24/41 C/ATT · 231 YDSBishop Davenport · USA
9/21 C/ATT · 122 YDSTrae'von Dunbar · USA
14 CAR · 153 YDSNoreel White · TROY
4 REC · 55 YDSTrae Stevenson · USA
1 REC · 46 YDSJustin Powe · TROY
9 TOT · 4 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Troy vs South Alabama pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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