NCAAFFinalVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Troy Trojans

Final · ESPN+

41–17

Louisiana TechTroy

Final

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

7-2 · W7

365 PF · 215 PA

Final

Troy Trojans

4-5 · L2

215 PF · 263 PA

LT 64%TROY 36%

At lock: projected LT 26.96–21.06 TROY

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:12 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3352857293

Winner called · off by 18

Most typical sim

LT 27 – TROY 21

Final

LT 41 – TROY 17

Winner: Louisiana Tech (64%)
Spread: LT -5.5 covers (52%)
Total: Over 47.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)18

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LT vs TROY

The model

How this number was built

LT 26.96–21.06 TROY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TROY -11.0 vs LT -0.1 · pred margin -7.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.6 vs +6.5 · model TROY 20.1–29.4 LT
Home field
+3.0 pts to TROY
Record
TROY 4-5 · LT 7-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward LT -7 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LT	3	17	14	7	41
TROY	7	3	7	0	17

How the points were scored

FGQ1 10:423–0
Kaegan Kent 45 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 4:143–7
Gavin Griffin 2 Yd Run (Hayden Wolfe Kick)
TDQ2 14:5510–7
Marcus Calwise Jr. 28 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Kaegan Kent Kick)
FGQ2 13:0613–7
Kaegan Kent 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 5:0620–7
Sergio Snider 7 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)
FGQ2 3:4220–10
Hayden Wolfe 41 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 12:4820–17
Delvin Whitaker 0 Yd Fumble Return (Hayden Wolfe Kick)
TDQ3 5:4327–17
Eli Finley 2 Yd pass from Trey Kukuk (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ3 5:2634–17
Andrew Burnette 11 Yd Run (Kaegan Kent Kick)
TDQ4 1:0541–17
Alonzo Jackson Jr. 66 Yd Fumble Return (Kaegan Kent Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LT	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	QBR
Blake Baker #5	16/19	177	9.3	1	43.7
Trey Kukuk #2	8/10	68	6.8	1	93.1
Team	24/29	245	8.4	2	--

Rushing

LT	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rayshun Hurt #20	7	29	4.1	0	14
Trey Kukuk #2	6	26	4.3	0	7
Andrew Burnette #1	3	20	6.7	1	11
Sergio Snider #23	8	20	2.5	1	7
Talyn Shettron #86	1	14	14.0	0	14
Jalen Mickens #11	2	7	3.5	0	4
Jaden Miller #0	2	5	2.5	0	4
Blake Baker #5	9	-15	-1.7	0	10
Team	38	106	2.8	2	14

Receiving

LT	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Marcus Calwise Jr. #6	9	137	15.2	1	28
Eli Finley #84	5	44	8.8	1	24
Talyn Shettron #86	2	32	16.0	0	17
Luke Watkins #15	2	16	8.0	0	13
Jalen Mickens #11	5	10	2.0	0	11
Rayshun Hurt #20	1	6	6.0	0	6
Team	24	245	10.2	2	28

Fumbles

LT	FUM	LOST	REC
Blake Baker #5	2	2	0
Alonzo Jackson Jr. #24	0	0	1
Ayden Combs #40	0	0	1
Jojo Odom #90	0	0	1
Janard Lockhardt #7	0	0	1
Team	2	2	4

Defense

LT	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Alonzo Jackson Jr. #24	11	7	2	2.5	0	0	1
Kolbe Fields #10	10	5	1	2	2	0	0
Zheric Hill #21	7	0	0	0.5	0	1	0
Taeden Rogers #16	6	4	0	1	0	0	0
MJ Moultrie II #13	6	2	0	0	2	0	0
Ahkhari Johnson #5	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Amari Butler #2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Janard Lockhardt #7	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Demario Bookhart #17	2	1	0	1	1	0	0
Sam Fongang #1	2	1	0	0	1	0	0
Jordan McRae #0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jadon Mayfield #22	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Ayden Combs #40	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jojo Odom #90	2	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
Grayson Hardy #27	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cole Watson #35	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Lane Condry #92	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kam Franklin #4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Emmanuel Oguns #11	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Bradford #93	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Judd Rouyea #99	1	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
Jeremiah Smith #28	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
David Pierro #8	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Donovan Rieman #98	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	69	29	3	8	6	3	1

Interceptions

LT	INT	YDS	TD
Janard Lockhardt #7	1	27	0
Team	1	27	0

Kick returns

LT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Rayshun Hurt #20	3	54	18.0	20
Marcus Calwise Jr. #6	1	17	17.0	17
Team	4	71	17.8	20

Punt returns

LT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Dedrick Latulas #3	2	8	4.0	17	0
Team	2	8	4.0	17	0

Kicking

LT	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Kaegan Kent #38	2/2	100.0	45	5/5	11
Hunter Rioux #31	0/1	0.0	0	0/0	0
Team	2/3	66.7	45	5/5	11

Punting

LT	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Lexington Matthews #29	4	178	44.5	1	3	48
Team	4	178	44.5	1	3	48

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LT	TROY
1st Downs	22	16
3rd down efficiency	4-13	3-15
4th down efficiency	1-1	2-4
Total Yards	351	262
Passing	245	215
Comp/Att	24/29	18/33
Yards per pass	8.4	6.5
Rushing	106	47
Rushing Attempts	38	32
Yards per rush	2.8	1.5
Penalties	10-96	9-68
Turnovers	2	5
Fumbles lost	2	4
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	34:12	25:48

Computer pick · Spread

LT -5.5

50%

At lock LT 26.96–21.06 TROY · LT by 5.9 pts vs LT -5.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Blake Baker · LT
16/19 C/ATT · 177 YDS
Tucker Kilcrease · TROY
18/33 C/ATT · 215 YDS
Rayshun Hurt · LT
7 CAR · 29 YDS
Jordan Lovett · TROY
10 CAR · 31 YDS
Marcus Calwise Jr. · LT
9 REC · 137 YDS
Howard Kinchen · TROY
2 REC · 63 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Louisiana Tech vs Troy pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LT -5.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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