NCAAFSat 3:00 PM CTVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans

TV · ESPN+

Sat 3:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TROY -16.5

52%

ULM 17.01–34.44 TROY

UL Monroe Warhawks

0-6 · L6

120 PF · 247 PA

17.01

Projected

Troy Trojans

3-3 · L1 · computer pick

146 PF · 153 PA

34.44

ULM 14%TROY 86%

Projected ULM 17.01–34.44 TROY

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TROY -19.4

TROY -16.5

Total

51.4

51.5

Gap: +2.9 margin, -0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ULM vs TROY

The model

How this number was built

ULM 17.01–34.44 TROY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TROY -9.6 vs ULM -26.3 · pred margin +17.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.6 vs -10.4 · model TROY 34.8–16.3 ULM
Home field
+3.0 pts to TROY
Record
TROY 3-3 · ULM 0-6
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TROY -16.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Aidan Armenta
Pass 83/131, 974 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT
Austin Carlisle
Rush 40 CAR, 230 YDS, 1 TD
Marcellus Jackson
Rec 32 REC, 265 YDS

Goose Crowder
Pass 96/169, 1112 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT
Gavin Griffin
Rush 76 CAR, 359 YDS, 1 TD
TK Keyes
Rec 13 REC, 282 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ULM	TROY
Points Per Game	20.0	24.3
Total Yards	342.5	402.7
Yards Passing	222.0	198.0
Yards Rushing	120.5	204.7
Points Allowed Per Game	41.2	25.5
Yards Allowed	483.2	350.0
Pass Yards Allowed	253.5	214.8
Rush Yards Allowed	229.7	135.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UL Monroe vs Troy prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TROY -16.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects UL Monroe 17.0, Troy 34.4. Model win probability: Troy 86%, UL Monroe 14%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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