Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
TV · TBS
CLE 2.97–4.16 TB
Projected CLE 2.97–4.16 TB · most likely 2–4
Model vs market
Gap: -1 pts of win %, +2.08 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2026, 9,733 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2448 vs old model 0.2486. No free archive of MLB closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. A plate-appearance model (team batting vs starter/bullpen rates through a base-out run-expectancy solve) was tested and didn't beat this one, so it is not used.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CLE vs TB
The model
How this number was built
CLE 2.97–4.16 TB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. runs +0.56 vs +0.16 · SP FIP 4.07 vs — · model TB 4.5–4.1 CLE
- Home field+0.1 runs to TB
- RecordTB 99-64 · CLE 85-78
- Market priorBlended 70% toward TB -148 / total 6.5
Probable pitchers
Season leaders
Chase DeLauterAVG .287
Angel MartinezHR 18
Brayan RocchioRBI 73- Chase DeLautermlbrating 465.5
Chandler SimpsonAVG .306
Junior CamineroHR 42- Junior CamineroRBI 101
- Junior Camineromlbrating 630.8
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLE | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Batting | ||
| R | 678 | 736 |
| H | 1291 | 1405 |
| RBI | 650 | 700 |
| HR | 162 | 169 |
| BB | 574 | 514 |
| K | 1271 | 1145 |
| SB | 146 | 164 |
| 2B | 249 | 230 |
| 3B | 16 | 22 |
| AB | 5410 | 5444 |
| AVG | .239 | .258 |
| OBP | .316 | .326 |
| SLG | .380 | .402 |
| OPS | .696 | .728 |
| SF | 45 | 42 |
| HBP | 58 | 58 |
| CS | 31 | 54 |
| XBH | 427 | 421 |
| PA | 6117 | 6106 |
| P | 24066 | 22987 |
| TB | 2058 | 2186 |
| GIDP | 98 | 111 |
| SH | 28 | 45 |
| IBB | 14 | 27 |
| Pitching | ||
| IP | 1437.2 | 1443.0 |
| H | 1286 | 1235 |
| R | 667 | 650 |
| ER | 602 | 594 |
| BB | 530 | 409 |
| K | 1530 | 1322 |
| HR | 175 | 201 |
| P | 24014 | 22561 |
| WHIP | 1.26 | 1.14 |
| ERA | 3.77 | 3.70 |
| TBF | 6084 | 5939 |
| WP | 57 | 43 |
| BK | 2 | 3 |
| BH | 74 | 52 |
| HLD | 117 | 116 |
| SV | 46 | 58 |
| BLSV | 18 | 19 |
| W | 85 | 98 |
| L | 77 | 64 |
| IR | 261 | 192 |
| IRS | 74 | 62 |
| Fielding | ||
| E | 86 | 92 |
| DP | 249 | 230 |
| A | 1262 | 1275 |
| PO | 4313 | 4329 |
| PB | 8 | 6 |
| CS | 31 | 54 |
| SBA | 146 | 164 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Guardians vs Rays prediction · Oct 19, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projects Guardians 3.0, Rays 4.2. Model win probability: Rays 66%, Guardians 34%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day