NCAAFSat 4:00 PM CTJoe Aillet Stadium

Old Dominion Monarchs at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

TV · ESPN+

Sat 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

LT -10.5

51%

ODU 17.46–28.44 LT

Old Dominion Monarchs

2-5 · L1

124 PF · 188 PA

17.46

Projected

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

4-2 · W3 · computer pick

200 PF · 147 PA

28.44

ODU 25%LT 75%

Projected ODU 17.46–28.44 LT

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LT -12.0

LT -10.5

Total

46.7

45.5

Gap: +1.5 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ODU vs LT

The model

How this number was built

ODU 17.46–28.44 LT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LT -3.7 vs ODU -14.0 · pred margin +11.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.5 vs -0.1 · model LT 29.2–20.4 ODU
Home field
+3.0 pts to LT
Record
LT 4-2 · ODU 2-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LT -10.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Quinn Henicle
Pass 54/98, 656 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Devin Roche
Rush 95 CAR, 373 YDS
TJ Johnson
Rec 16 REC, 262 YDS, 3 TD

Blake Baker
Pass 68/99, 857 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT
Andrew Burnette
Rush 65 CAR, 286 YDS, 1 TD
Jalen Mickens
Rec 32 REC, 476 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ODU	LT
Points Per Game	17.7	33.3
Total Yards	266.9	392.8
Yards Passing	152.6	239.8
Yards Rushing	114.3	153.0
Points Allowed Per Game	26.9	24.5
Yards Allowed	335.9	353.8
Pass Yards Allowed	198.4	205.3
Rush Yards Allowed	137.4	148.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Old Dominion vs Louisiana Tech prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LT -10.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Old Dominion 17.5, Louisiana Tech 28.4. Model win probability: Louisiana Tech 75%, Old Dominion 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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