NCAAFTue 6:30 PM CTJoan C. Edwards Stadium

South Alabama Jaguars at Marshall Thundering Herd

TV · ESPN2

Tue 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

USA -3.5

51%

USA 33.13–29.48 MRSH

South Alabama Jaguars

4-2 · W2 · computer pick

233 PF · 207 PA

33.13

Projected

Marshall Thundering Herd

3-3 · L2

132 PF · 202 PA

29.48

USA 59%MRSH 41%

Projected USA 33.13–29.48 MRSH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

USA -5.0

USA -3.0

Total

62.8

62.5

Gap: -2.0 margin, +0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: USA vs MRSH

The model

How this number was built

USA 33.13–29.48 MRSH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MRSH -16.5 vs USA -6.8 · pred margin -3.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.1 vs -0.3 · model MRSH 31.2–32.4 USA
Home field
+3.0 pts to MRSH
Record
MRSH 3-3 · USA 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward USA -3 / total 62.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jared Hollins
Pass 56/92, 855 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT
Keenan Phillips
Rush 80 CAR, 444 YDS, 5 TD
Brendan Jenkins
Rec 21 REC, 355 YDS, 3 TD

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
Pass 90/140, 1041 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
Jo'Shon Barbie
Rush 49 CAR, 230 YDS, 2 TD
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw
Rec 22 REC, 324 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	USA	MRSH
Points Per Game	38.8	22.0
Total Yards	437.8	406.5
Yards Passing	217.5	247.8
Yards Rushing	220.3	158.7
Points Allowed Per Game	34.5	33.7
Yards Allowed	429.0	447.3
Pass Yards Allowed	264.8	253.5
Rush Yards Allowed	164.2	193.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

South Alabama vs Marshall prediction · Oct 20, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is USA -3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects South Alabama 33.1, Marshall 29.5. Model win probability: Marshall 41%, South Alabama 59%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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