Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Final · ESPN+
42–51
At lock: projected WKU 26.87–26.11 MTSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:12 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1237303181
- Winner: Western KY (53%)
- Spread: WKU -1.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 53.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)40
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WKU vs MTSU
The model
How this number was built
WKU 26.87–26.11 MTSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMTSU -16.6 vs WKU -14.9 · pred margin -0.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.7 vs -2.6 · model MTSU 30.0–28.3 WKU
- Home field+3.0 pts to MTSU
- RecordMTSU 5-4 · WKU 3-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward WKU -1.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 0 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 42 |
| MTSU | 14 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 51 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 5:090–7
Neo Clifton 25 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- TDQ1 4:050–14
Ziyon Butler 65 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- FGQ2 14:563–14
Karl Campbell 35 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 8:1810–14
Brock Glenn 2 Yd Run (Karl Campbell Kick)
- FGQ2 3:2913–14
Karl Campbell 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:2913–21
Neo Clifton 1 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- TDQ3 14:4813–28
Antonio Martin 75 Yd Run (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- TDQ3 12:3720–28
Moussa Barry 21 Yd pass from Brock Glenn (Karl Campbell Kick)
- TDQ3 5:5420–35
Antonio Martin 2 Yd Run (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- TDQ3 4:3427–35
Ajay Allen 8 Yd Run (Karl Campbell Kick)
- TDQ4 14:0027–42
Koraun Perdue 4 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- TDQ4 5:1935–42
Quincy Burroughs 8 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (Rodney Tisdale Jr. Pass to Lofton Howard for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ4 0:3142–42
Rodney Tisdale Jr. 5 Yd Run (Karl Campbell Kick)
- FGQ4 0:0142–45
Dominic Bourgeois 48 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 0:0042–51
Aidan Singleton 0 Yd Fumble Return
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| WKU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brock Glenn #11 | 13/23 | 152 | 6.6 | 1 | 0 | 51.5 |
 Rodney Tisdale Jr. #5 | 11/13 | 107 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 95.5 |
| Team | 24/36 | 259 | 7.2 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| WKU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ajay Allen #3 | 15 | 116 | 7.7 | 1 | 45 |
Brock Glenn #11 | 9 | 82 | 9.1 | 1 | 45 |
Rodney Tisdale Jr. #5 | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 | 6 |
 Jonathan Stafford Jr. #80 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 8 |
 Le'Kamren Meadows #22 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
| Team | 32 | 238 | 7.4 | 3 | 45 |
Receiving
| WKU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Stafford Jr. #80 | 8 | 90 | 11.3 | 0 | 32 |
 Jyziah Rockwell #13 | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 | 40 |
 CC Ezirim #14 | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 | 33 |
 Coleson Arends #87 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Zion Taylor #17 | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | 11 |
 Moussa Barry #8 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 1 | 21 |
Ajay Allen #3 | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Quincy Burroughs #12 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 | 8 |
| Team | 24 | 259 | 10.8 | 2 | 40 |
Fumbles
| WKU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Ajay Allen #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| WKU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaylen Wester #21 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jaylen Pollard #39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Brown #6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Braxton Myers #14 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Westen Ard #32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Zsacari Minnis #17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen Lewis #7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Cosby-Mosley #19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dave Herard #5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Javin Griffin #92 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mackavelli Malotumau #0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Tony Newsome Jr. #2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zeiqui Lawton #33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Latrevion Thompson #13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Jakeem Fletcher #52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rylen Su'a-Filo #93 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Darius Hampton #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alan Gbee #38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Venson Sneed #55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Kick returns
| WKU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cameron Flowers #4 | 5 | 73 | 14.6 | 26 | 0 |
Ajay Allen #3 | 0 | -12 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 61 | 12.2 | 26 | 0 |
Punt returns
| WKU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Stafford Jr. #80 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
Kicking
| WKU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karl Campbell #99 | 2/3 | 67.0 | 42 | 4/4 | 10 |
| Team | 2/3 | 66.7 | 42 | 4/4 | 10 |
Punting
| WKU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jackson Smith #43 | 5 | 214 | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Team | 5 | 214 | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WKU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 24 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-15 | 7-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 497 | 513 |
| Passing | 259 | 312 |
| Comp/Att | 24/36 | 30/42 |
| Yards per pass | 7.2 | 7.4 |
| Rushing | 238 | 201 |
| Rushing Attempts | 32 | 30 |
| Yards per rush | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| Penalties | 4-45 | 7-71 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:12 | 32:48 |
At lock WKU 26.87–26.11 MTSU · WKU by 0.8 pts vs MTSU +1.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitBrock Glenn · WKU
13/23 C/ATT · 152 YDSRoman Gagliano · MTSU
30/41 C/ATT · 312 YDSAjay Allen · WKU
15 CAR · 116 YDSAntonio Martin · MTSU
16 CAR · 125 YDSJonathan Stafford Jr. · WKU
8 REC · 90 YDSZiyon Butler · MTSU
6 REC · 129 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Western KY vs MTSU pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MTSU +1.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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