Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Final · CBSSN
14–47
At lock: projected SHSU 15.81–32.80 JXST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:12 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1186970324
- Winner: Jax State (85%)
- Spread: SHSU +17.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 48.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SHSU vs JXST
The model
How this number was built
SHSU 15.81–32.80 JXST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexJXST -5.2 vs SHSU -20.8 · pred margin +18.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.7 vs -8.7 · model JXST 36.4–12.4 SHSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to JXST
- RecordJXST 7-2 · SHSU 1-8
- Market priorBlended 66% toward JXST -17.5 / total 45.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| JXST | 0 | 17 | 7 | 23 | 47 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ2 8:350–7
Jamill Williams 31 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)
- FGQ2 3:180–10
Garrison Rippa 45 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:250–17
Jalen Likely 8 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)
- TDQ3 14:200–24
Deondre Johnson 67 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)
- TDQ3 13:437–24
Chris Reed 64 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)
- TDQ4 14:107–31
Caden Creel 4 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)
- SFQ4 12:207–33
Team Safety
- TDQ4 12:097–40
Jamill Williams 85 Yd Kickoff Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)
- TDQ4 7:2114–40
Grady O'Neill 7 Yd pass from DJ Bailey (Sam Carpenter Kick)
- TDQ4 0:3414–47
Jacob Cornejo 1 Yd Run (Conor Donaghy Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| SHSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Landyn Locke #8 | 16/21 | 126 | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 18.6 |
 DJ Bailey #15 | 5/7 | 63 | 9.0 | 1 | 0 | 92.0 |
| Team | 21/28 | 189 | 6.8 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| SHSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Landan Brown #10 | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Kaden Winkfield #24 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 12 |
 Brett Holloway #9 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 11 |
 Ah'Marion Gaines-Smith #25 | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | 5 |
 Alton McCaskill #22 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 |
DJ Bailey #15 | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | 0 |
Landyn Locke #8 | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 23 | 65 | 2.8 | 0 | 18 |
Receiving
| SHSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Reed #2 | 6 | 80 | 13.3 | 1 | 64 |
 Grady O'Neill #7 | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 1 | 33 |
 Tim Burns Jr. #3 | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 | 13 |
 London Deyon #14 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Ah'Marion Gaines-Smith #25 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Alton McCaskill #22 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Landan Brown #10 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
 Darrick Bledsoe III #0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 21 | 189 | 9.0 | 2 | 64 |
Defense
| SHSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jace Arnold #9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dean Ford #21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Groves #12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Chauncey Chidi #48 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Bailey #8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ishmel Atkins #5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Stacy Bey #18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caesar Magee #7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brian Bates Jr. #33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Darien Jackson #10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylon Jones #6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Aaron Edwards #16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braylen Wortham #30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Franklin #15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalyn Stanford #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jarra Anderson #92 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Alexander-Felton #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Railyn Adams #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lyric Smith #29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brody Henderson #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Mike King Jr. #23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dylan Frazier #97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dimitry Nicolas #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 52 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Kick returns
| SHSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alijah Cason #4 | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 23 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 23 | 0 |
Punt returns
| SHSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tim Burns Jr. #3 | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 12 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 12 | 0 |
Kicking
| SHSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam Carpenter #94 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| SHSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cal Joseph #31 | 7 | 269 | 38.4 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
Team | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Team | 8 | 297 | 37.1 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SHSU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 13 | 25 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 1-11 | 2-9 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Total Yards | 254 | 479 |
| Passing | 189 | 282 |
| Comp/Att | 21/28 | 20/30 |
| Yards per pass | 6.8 | 9.4 |
| Rushing | 65 | 197 |
| Rushing Attempts | 23 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 2.8 | 6.0 |
| Penalties | 10-101 | 5-43 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:00 | 33:00 |
At lock SHSU 15.81–32.80 JXST · JXST by 17.0 pts vs JXST -16.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitLandyn Locke · SHSU
16/21 C/ATT · 126 YDSCaden Creel · JXST
18/28 C/ATT · 246 YDSLandan Brown · SHSU
10 CAR · 50 YDSChris Reed · SHSU
6 REC · 80 YDSDeondre Johnson · JXST
3 REC · 82 YDSJace Arnold · SHSU
6 TOT · 4 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sam Houston vs Jax State pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is JXST -16.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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