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Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers

Final · ESPN+

Missouri St20–23FIU
Missouri StFIU
Final
Missouri State Bears
3-6 · W1
242 PF · 291 PA
20
Final
Final
Florida International Panthers
4-5 · L1
190 PF · 207 PA
23
MOST 35%FIU 65%

At lock: projected MOST 21.97–28.09 FIU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:12 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1203747943

Winner called · off by 7
Most typical sim
MOST 22 – FIU 28
Final
MOST 20 – FIU 23
  • Winner: FIU (65%)
  • Spread: FIU -4.5 covers (55%)
  • Total: Over 49.5 (53%)
  • Score error (both teams)7

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MOST vs FIU

The model

How this number was built

MOST 21.97–28.09 FIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    FIU -12.7 vs MOST -15.3 · pred margin +5.0
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.4 vs -2.9 · model FIU 28.1–20.9 MOST
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to FIU
  • Record
    FIU 4-5 · MOST 3-6
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward FIU -4.5 / total 50.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MOST0331420
FIU0371323

How the points were scored

  • FGQ2 2:000–3

    Robert Czeremcha 25 Yd Field Goal

  • FGQ2 1:303–3

    Yousef Obeid 35 Yd Field Goal

  • FGQ3 12:006–3

    Yousef Obeid 42 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 8:426–10

    Devonte Lyons 6 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)

  • TDQ4 14:206–17

    Devonte Lyons 17 Yd Run (Robert Czeremcha Kick)

  • FGQ4 9:089–17

    Yousef Obeid 22 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 6:4217–17

    Jashawn Cooper 51 Yd Fumble Return (Henry Belin IV Run for Two-Point Conversion)

  • FGQ4 1:5517–20

    Robert Czeremcha 42 Yd Field Goal

  • FGQ4 0:2120–20

    Yousef Obeid 30 Yd Field Goal

  • FGQ4 0:0020–23

    Robert Czeremcha 35 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

MOSTC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Henry Belin IV
#2
19/362316.40126.2
Team19/362316.401--

Rushing

MOSTCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Connor Lair
#40
17673.9024
Breezy Dubar
#1
5173.409
King Davis
#10
284.007
Ramone Green Jr.
#22
133.003
Henry Belin IV
#2
8-18-2.3030
Team33772.3030

Receiving

MOSTRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Jmariyae Robinson
#0
610016.7034
Isaiah Myers
#3
56813.6031
Mekhi Miller
#6
34615.3023
Makai Cope
#11
199.009
Jeron Askren
#88
155.005
Ramone Green Jr.
#22
231.502
Connor Lair
#40
100.000
Team1923112.2034

Fumbles

MOSTFUMLOSTREC
Henry Belin IV
#2
100
Jashawn Cooper
#21
001
Team101

Defense

MOSTTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Jared Lloyd
#0
161201100
Christian Ford
#29
7300000
J.J. O'Neal
#16
6411000
Josh Lukusa
#92
4400000
Khalil Anderson
#3
4200000
Joel Kpassou
#8
4200100
Martavis Blackmon
#15
4100000
Tim Brantley Jr.
#11
3222000
Dylan Brooks
#49
3201000
Antonio Smith
#2
3200000
Anthony Mattison
#33
3200000
Jashawn Cooper
#21
3100001
Gilles Tchio
#57
2101000
Joel Boamah
#12
2000000
Mekhi Miller
#6
1100000
Connor Lair
#40
1100000
Cooper Roy
#31
1100000
Camron Williams
#25
1100000
Breylon McCuller
#94
1100000
Brandon Hightower
#90
1100000
Jedrick Russell Jr.
#48
1100000
Kaden Jones
#52
1100000
Jalile Elliott
#10
1000010
Blessing Igbinedion
#96
1000000
Team744636211

Interceptions

MOSTINTYDSTD
Joel Boamah
#12
100
Team100

Kick returns

MOSTNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Jmariyae Robinson
#0
35719.0280
Team35719.0280

Kicking

MOSTFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Yousef Obeid
#36
4/4100.0420/012
Team4/4100.0420/012

Punting

MOSTNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Stewart McDonald
#25
418546.30052
Team418546.30052

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

MOSTFIU
1st Downs1821
3rd down efficiency6-165-14
4th down efficiency0-12-2
Total Yards308494
Passing231234
Comp/Att19/3620/29
Yards per pass6.48.1
Rushing77260
Rushing Attempts3342
Yards per rush2.36.2
Penalties7-5011-117
Turnovers12
Fumbles lost01
Interceptions thrown11
Possession27:2129:18
Computer pick · Spread
FIU -4
53%

At lock MOST 21.97–28.09 FIU · FIU by 6.1 pts vs FIU -4 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Henry Belin IV · MOST

    19/36 C/ATT · 231 YDS

  • JJ Kohl · FIU

    20/28 C/ATT · 234 YDS

  • Connor Lair · MOST

    17 CAR · 67 YDS

  • Devonte Lyons · FIU

    24 CAR · 215 YDS

  • Jmariyae Robinson · MOST

    6 REC · 100 YDS

  • Kyle McNeal · FIU

    4 REC · 84 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Missouri St vs FIU pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is FIU -4, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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