NCAAFFinalWalens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium

Delaware Blue Hens at Kennesaw State Owls

Final · ESPN+

40–42

DelawareKennesaw St

Final

Delaware Blue Hens

4-5 · W1

297 PF · 278 PA

Final

Kennesaw State Owls

3-6 · W3

252 PF · 250 PA

DEL 53%KENN 47%

At lock: projected DEL 28.13–27.06 KENN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 2:22 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1153415086

Missed · off by 27

Most typical sim

DEL 28 – KENN 27

Final

DEL 40 – KENN 42

Winner: Delaware (53%)
Spread: DEL -1.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 57.5 (60%)
Score error (both teams)27

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DEL vs KENN

The model

How this number was built

DEL 28.13–27.06 KENN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
KENN -11.9 vs DEL -9.6 · pred margin -0.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.1 vs +0.0 · model KENN 31.3–27.9 DEL
Home field
+3.0 pts to KENN
Record
KENN 3-6 · DEL 4-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward DEL -1.5 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DEL	15	10	9	6	40
KENN	13	17	3	9	42

How the points were scored

TDQ1 14:470–6
Davis Bryson 99 Yd Kickoff Return
TDQ1 7:497–6
Viron Ellison Jr. 1 Yd Run (Tucker Smack Kick)
TDQ1 6:4015–6
Trace Scott III 7 Yd Interception Return (Viron Ellison Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ1 2:3515–13
Rickie Collins 8 Yd Run (Daniel Kinney Kick)
TDQ2 14:0015–20
Boogie Woods III 26 Yd Run (Daniel Kinney Kick)
TDQ2 10:5022–20
Viron Ellison Jr. 1 Yd Run (Tucker Smack Kick)
FGQ2 4:3222–23
Daniel Kinney 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 0:2222–30
Boogie Woods III 1 Yd Run (Daniel Kinney Kick)
FGQ2 0:0025–30
Tucker Smack 54 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 12:2731–30
Donovan Lewis 12 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
FGQ3 9:2131–33
Daniel Kinney 29 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 1:0434–33
Tucker Smack 36 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 14:1834–39
Reed Jesiolowski 63 Yd pass from Landon Varnes (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
FGQ4 8:2534–42
Daniel Kinney 35 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 0:2440–42
Bryson Graves 17 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

DEL	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Nick Minicucci #4	35/54	408	7.6	2	0	47.7
Team	35/54	408	7.6	2	0	--

Rushing

DEL	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jo Silver #27	10	39	3.9	0	11
Bryson Graves #0	1	20	20.0	0	20
Viron Ellison Jr. #21	4	15	3.8	2	13
Kaderris Roberts #3	7	14	2.0	0	7
Nick Minicucci #4	9	-3	-0.3	0	5
Team	31	85	2.7	2	20

Receiving

DEL	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bryson Graves #0	7	125	17.9	1	49
Da'Wain Lofton #5	5	78	15.6	0	31
Donovan Lewis #14	5	73	14.6	1	38
Sean Wilson #18	6	48	8.0	0	14
Jo Silver #27	5	31	6.2	0	10
Elijah Sessoms #88	1	27	27.0	0	27
Kaderris Roberts #3	6	26	4.3	0	14
Team	35	408	11.7	2	49

Fumbles

DEL	FUM	LOST	REC
Viron Ellison Jr. #21	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

DEL	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
George Mullins #29	8	6	0	0	0	0	0
Jamarion Kolagbodi #18	7	6	0	0	1	0	0
Kahlil Ali #2	7	5	0	1	0	0	0
Gavin Moul #35	6	3	0.5	1.5	0	0	0
Kevin Moore #19	5	5	0	1	0	0	0
Jaquise Alexander #8	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Nasir Eatmon #36	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Matthews #10	3	1	0.5	0.5	0	0	0
Dominick Brogna #52	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Gorham #3	3	1	0.5	1.5	0	0	0
Trace Scott III #33	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Demarco Daniels #4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jawarren Corbin #11	2	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kshawn Cox Jr. #6	1	1	0	0	2	0	0
Viron Ellison Jr. #21	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Noah Jefferson #16	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
AJ Graham #27	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Julius Puryear #46	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tucker Smack #31	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Noah Matthews #13	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	1	0
Jalen Bell #20	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	63	39	2	6	4	1	1

Interceptions

DEL	INT	YDS	TD
Trace Scott III #33	1	7	1
George Mullins #29	1	21	0
Team	2	28	1

Kick returns

DEL	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Bryson Graves #0	1	15	15.0	15	0
Team	1	15	15.0	15	0

Kicking

DEL	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tucker Smack #31	2/2	100.0	54	2/2	8
Team	2/2	100.0	54	2/2	8

Punting

DEL	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Josh Cupitt #39	3	107	35.7	0	0	37
Team	3	107	35.7	0	0	37

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DEL	KENN
1st Downs	29	20
3rd down efficiency	6-16	11-21
4th down efficiency	2-5	2-1
Total Yards	493	446
Passing	408	309
Comp/Att	35/54	24/45
Yards per pass	7.6	6.9
Rushing	85	137
Rushing Attempts	31	31
Yards per rush	2.7	4.4
Penalties	6-50	15-129
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	2
Possession	33:09	26:51

Computer pick · Spread

KENN +2.5

52%

At lock DEL 28.13–27.06 KENN · DEL by 1.1 pts vs KENN +2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Nick Minicucci · DEL
35/54 C/ATT · 408 YDS
Landon Varnes · KENN
19/37 C/ATT · 254 YDS
Jo Silver · DEL
10 CAR · 39 YDS
Boogie Woods III · KENN
15 CAR · 90 YDS
Bryson Graves · DEL
7 REC · 125 YDS
Dylan Gary · KENN
5 REC · 92 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Delaware vs Kennesaw St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KENN +2.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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