Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Liberty Flames
Final · CBSSN
23–28
At lock: projected MTSU 15.96–37.52 LIB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1052602277
- Winner: Liberty (91%)
- Spread: LIB -21 covers (51% vs 47%, push 2%)
- Total: Under 53.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MTSU vs LIB
The model
How this number was built
MTSU 15.96–37.52 LIB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLIB +4.6 vs MTSU -16.6 · pred margin +22.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.5 vs -3.7 · model LIB 38.6–16.3 MTSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to LIB
- RecordLIB 9-1 · MTSU 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LIB -22.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 23 |
| LIB | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:060–7
Jaylon Coleman 45 Yd Run (Chase Reeves Kick)
- FGQ2 13:323–7
Dominic Bourgeois 45 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 8:4910–7
Antonio Martin 8 Yd Run (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- TDQ2 2:0610–14
Jaylin Belford 3 Yd Run (Chase Reeves Kick)
- TDQ3 12:0810–21
Kam Davis 23 Yd Run (Chase Reeves Kick)
- TDQ3 5:2517–21
Ziyon Butler 23 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)
- TDQ4 14:2317–28
Makai Jackson 10 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Chase Reeves Kick)
- TDQ4 6:1823–28
Neo Clifton 14 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MTSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Roman Gagliano #16 | 24/34 | 202 | 5.9 | 2 | 0 | 58.7 |
Team | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 24/35 | 202 | 5.8 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| MTSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roman Gagliano #16 | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 | 16 |
 Antonio Martin #8 | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 | 12 |
 Ziyon Butler #13 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 1 | 16 |
Receiving
| MTSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam'ron Lacy #3 | 10 | 97 | 9.7 | 0 | 25 |
Ziyon Butler #13 | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 | 23 |
 Brody Benke #86 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 12 |
 AJ Jones #6 | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | 10 |
 Hogan Wasson #7 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 16 |
 Neo Clifton #85 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 1 | 14 |
Antonio Martin #8 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Brooklen Davis #33 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 24 | 202 | 8.4 | 2 | 25 |
Fumbles
| MTSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Roman Gagliano #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Brooklen Davis #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashton Taylor #13 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Defense
| MTSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Korey Smith #26 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ashton Taylor #13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Reggie Johnson #46 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Williams #30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aidan Butts #93 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jackson Lowe #2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Christofer Noble #7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Hardy #21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Williams #94 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayson Lowe #17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ricky Lee #12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gumbo Gaskins #22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Felix Hixon #91 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Camari Hall #24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Austin Clemons #34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Johnson #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mathias Malaki-Donaldson #31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaven Call #44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 La'Garrius Sims #42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zeion Simpson-Smith #95 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Archie Roseman V #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Locke Kennedy #38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 78 | 34 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| MTSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dominic Bourgeois #91 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 45 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 45 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| MTSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ashton Logan #92 | 4 | 163 | 40.8 | 0 | 2 | 50 |
| Team | 4 | 163 | 40.8 | 0 | 2 | 50 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MTSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 28 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-12 | 6-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Total Yards | 290 | 434 |
| Passing | 202 | 64 |
| Comp/Att | 24/35 | 8/18 |
| Yards per pass | 5.8 | 3.6 |
| Rushing | 88 | 370 |
| Rushing Attempts | 21 | 53 |
| Yards per rush | 4.2 | 7.0 |
| Penalties | 7-47 | 3-39 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 23:28 | 36:32 |
Model projected MTSU 15.96 – 37.52 LIB at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Roman Gagliano · MTSU
24/34 C/ATT · 202 YDSDeshawn Purdie · LIB
8/17 C/ATT · 64 YDSKam Davis · LIB
20 CAR · 126 YDSCam'ron Lacy · MTSU
10 REC · 97 YDSMakai Jackson · LIB
5 REC · 50 YDSKorey Smith · MTSU
16 TOT · 8 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
MTSU vs Liberty pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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