NCAAFFri 6:00 PM CTFranklin Field

Yale Bulldogs at Pennsylvania Quakers

TV · ESPNU

Fri 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

PENN +4.5

53%

YALE 26.72–23.55 PENN · PENN by 1.3 pts vs PENN +4.5

Players

D. Reno · YALE
QB
H. Djeumeni Kemeni · YALE
Defenses
J. Santiago · YALE
WR
M. Teodecki · PENN
QB
M. Page · PENN
WR

Yale Bulldogs

3-2

26.72

Projected

Pennsylvania Quakers

2-3 · computer pick

23.55

YALE 58%PENN 42%

Projected YALE 26.72–23.55 PENN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

PENN -2.9

YALE -4.5

Total

53.8

49.5

Gap: +7.4 margin, +4.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: YALE vs PENN

The model

How this number was built

YALE 26.72–23.55 PENN · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
PENN -0.2 off · YALE +0.2 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+3.0 pts to PENN
Record
PENN 2-3 · YALE 3-2
Market prior
Blended 82% toward YALE -4.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dante Reno
Pass 95/157, 1182 YDS, 13 TD, 2 INT
Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni
Rush 120 CAR, 659 YDS, 4 TD
Jaxton Santiago
Rec 38 REC, 584 YDS, 8 TD

Miles Teodecki
Pass 69/123, 607 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
Miles Teodecki
Rush 35 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD
Mason Page
Rec 24 REC, 301 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	YALE	PENN
Points Per Game	31.0	17.6
Total Yards	457.8	342.4
Yards Passing	285.2	242.6
Yards Rushing	172.6	99.8
Points Allowed Per Game	27.6	17.8
Yards Allowed	305.6	252.4
Pass Yards Allowed	186.8	136.6
Rush Yards Allowed	118.8	115.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Yale vs Penn prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PENN +4.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Yale 26.7, Penn 23.6. Model win probability: Penn 42%, Yale 58%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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