Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies
Final · ESPNU
30–14
At lock: projected LIB 31.82–15.99 NMSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:12 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3507606850
- Winner: Liberty (84%)
- Spread: NMSU +16.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 46.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LIB vs NMSU
The model
How this number was built
LIB 31.82–15.99 NMSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNMSU -15.3 vs LIB +4.6 · pred margin -15.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.2 vs +8.5 · model NMSU 16.3–31.3 LIB
- Home field+3.0 pts to NMSU
- RecordNMSU 3-6 · LIB 8-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LIB -14.5 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 3 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 30 |
| NMSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:290–7
AJ Williams III 24 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (David Barker Kick)
- FGQ1 4:023–7
Chase Reeves 35 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 9:196–7
Chase Reeves 41 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 4:119–7
Chase Reeves 49 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:1816–7
Makai Jackson 15 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Chase Reeves Kick)
- TDQ4 13:0016–14
AJ Williams III 5 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (David Barker Kick)
- TDQ4 10:1223–14
Kam Davis 8 Yd Run (Chase Reeves Kick)
- TDQ4 1:0330–14
Peyton Jones 1 Yd Run (Chase Reeves Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| LIB | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deshawn Purdie #5 | 19/28 | 252 | 9.0 | 1 | 0 | 73.6 |
| Team | 19/28 | 252 | 9.0 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| LIB | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kam Davis #4 | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 1 | 14 |
 Terron Kellman #11 | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 | 18 |
Deshawn Purdie #5 | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 | 13 |
 Jaylon Coleman #0 | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Peyton Jones #7 | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 | 6 |
 Darius Copeland #1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Ethan Vasko #15 | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | 4 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 44 | 147 | 3.3 | 2 | 18 |
Receiving
| LIB | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Makai Jackson #2 | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 1 | 24 |
Darius Copeland #1 | 2 | 53 | 26.5 | 0 | 39 |
 Rashawn Cunningham #12 | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 | 16 |
 Jamari Person #3 | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 | 34 |
 LaKelsey Johnson Jr. #87 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Bryce Randolph #9 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Zeke Wimbush #88 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Jaylon Coleman #0 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 19 | 252 | 13.3 | 1 | 39 |
Fumbles
| LIB | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Jones #7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Davis #17 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| LIB | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derrell Farrar #1 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Aidan Vaughan #33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D-Icey Hopkins #0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Hopkins #5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremiah Vessel #13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Floyde #91 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Nathan Pirolli #94 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Markus Clark #15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lorenzo Payne #11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brenton Williams #8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deuce Spurlock #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashton Whitner #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kam Cullins #88 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyrell Gainey #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Mike Jarvis #97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jayden Davis #17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashton McShane #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Myke Gunn #23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 48 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| LIB | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Aidan Vaughan #33 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Myke Gunn #23 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Kick returns
| LIB | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jon Monteiro #10 | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 17 | 0 |
Jaylon Coleman #0 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 21 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 21 | 0 |
Punt returns
| LIB | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Makai Jackson #2 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 21 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 21 | 0 |
Kicking
| LIB | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chase Reeves #42 | 3/3 | 100.0 | 49 | 3/3 | 12 |
| Team | 3/3 | 100.0 | 49 | 3/3 | 12 |
Punting
| LIB | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam Crossan #49 | 3 | 143 | 47.7 | 0 | 2 | 51 |
| Team | 3 | 143 | 47.7 | 0 | 2 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LIB | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 24 | 13 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-13 | 6-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 399 | 300 |
| Passing | 252 | 256 |
| Comp/Att | 19/28 | 19/29 |
| Yards per pass | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| Rushing | 147 | 44 |
| Rushing Attempts | 44 | 22 |
| Yards per rush | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| Penalties | 7-50 | 6-40 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 37:05 | 22:55 |
At lock LIB 31.82–15.99 NMSU · LIB by 15.8 pts vs NMSU +17.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitDeshawn Purdie · LIB
19/28 C/ATT · 252 YDSTrey Hedden · NMSU
19/29 C/ATT · 256 YDSKam Davis · LIB
15 CAR · 63 YDSJames Jones · NMSU
15 CAR · 51 YDSMakai Jackson · LIB
6 REC · 76 YDSAJ Williams III · NMSU
8 REC · 150 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Liberty vs New Mexico St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NMSU +17.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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