Kennesaw State Owls at Sam Houston Bearkats
Final · ESPN+
26–7
At lock: projected KENN 27.17–19.74 SHSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 1:11 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1429300665
- Winner: Kennesaw St (68%)
- Spread: KENN -7 covers (49% vs 47%, push 4%)
- Total: Over 46.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: KENN vs SHSU
The model
How this number was built
KENN 27.17–19.74 SHSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSHSU -20.8 vs KENN -11.9 · pred margin -8.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.7 vs +0.1 · model SHSU 19.9–30.3 KENN
- Home field+3.0 pts to SHSU
- RecordSHSU 1-9 · KENN 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward KENN -9.5 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 10 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 26 |
| SHSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 10:303–0
Daniel Kinney 47 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 5:2810–0
Boogie Woods III 19 Yd pass from Landon Varnes (Daniel Kinney Kick)
- TDQ2 13:4110–7
Chris Reed 10 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)
- TDQ2 10:3317–7
Brayden Munroe 6 Yd Run (Daniel Kinney Kick)
- FGQ3 9:4320–7
Daniel Kinney 33 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 1:2426–7
Cam Miller 88 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| KENN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Landon Varnes #2 | 22/35 | 181 | 5.2 | 1 | 0 | 39.1 |
| Team | 22/35 | 181 | 5.2 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| KENN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boogie Woods III #24 | 17 | 101 | 5.9 | 0 | 19 |
 Latrelle Murrell #6 | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | 6 |
 Brayden Munroe #11 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 | 6 |
 Skyler Williams #3 | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 6 |
Landon Varnes #2 | 3 | -13 | -4.3 | 0 | 3 |
Team | 1 | -21 | -21.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 33 | 90 | 2.7 | 1 | 19 |
Receiving
| KENN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Davis Bryson #9 | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 | 20 |
Boogie Woods III #24 | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 | 19 |
 Dylan Gary #13 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 11 |
 Navelle Dean #7 | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | 11 |
Brayden Munroe #11 | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | 8 |
 Reed Jesiolowski #19 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 6 |
 Gerard Bullock Jr. #17 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 22 | 181 | 8.2 | 1 | 20 |
Fumbles
| KENN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Landon Varnes #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| KENN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Anglin #18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tywon Christopher #11 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Baron Hopson #44 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Patterson #6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Isaac Paul #9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaiden Grimes #96 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alfred Thomas #16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Karson Moss #28 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Perry Fisher #0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devin Morgan #15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zay Wilson #56 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kody Jones #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alexander Ford #4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Evans #7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Ugonna Nwoha #55 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Tay'vion Lawson #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonathan Keys #90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremy Greaves Jr. #46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Hallum #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Robinson #47 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nasir Smith #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Preston Clemmer #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jackson Cooper #92 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Omari Stephenson #42 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Miller #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 AJ Miller #53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kayden Miller #85 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Khary Beler #58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 62 | 42 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Interceptions
| KENN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Cam Miller #13 | 1 | 88 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 88 | 1 |
Kick returns
| KENN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reed Jesiolowski #19 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 |
Punt returns
| KENN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brayden Munroe #11 | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 37 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 37 | 0 |
Kicking
| KENN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daniel Kinney #89 | 2/3 | 67.0 | 47 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Team | 2/3 | 66.7 | 47 | 2/2 | 8 |
Punting
| KENN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt McKenzie #34 | 6 | 260 | 43.3 | 0 | 2 | 49 |
| Team | 6 | 260 | 43.3 | 0 | 2 | 49 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KENN | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 23 | 13 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 5-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 271 | 184 |
| Passing | 181 | 89 |
| Comp/Att | 22/35 | 12/24 |
| Yards per pass | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| Rushing | 90 | 95 |
| Rushing Attempts | 33 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Penalties | 8-80 | 9-90 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 29:09 | 30:51 |
Model projected KENN 27.17 – 19.74 SHSU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Landon Varnes · KENN
22/35 C/ATT · 181 YDSLandyn Locke · SHSU
9/15 C/ATT · 71 YDSBoogie Woods III · KENN
17 CAR · 101 YDSAlton McCaskill · SHSU
10 CAR · 53 YDSDavis Bryson · KENN
6 REC · 56 YDSChris Reed · SHSU
5 REC · 48 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kennesaw St vs Sam Houston pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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