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NCAAFFinalHouchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Final · ESPN+

Jax State24–34Western KY
Jax StateWestern KY
Final
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
7-3 · L1
286 PF · 207 PA
24
Final
Final
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
4-6 · W1
246 PF · 324 PA
34
JXST 68%WKU 32%

At lock: projected JXST 30.89–23.47 WKU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1412375951

Missed · off by 17
Most typical sim
JXST 31 – WKU 24
Final
JXST 24 – WKU 34
  • Winner: Jax State (68%)
  • Spread: WKU +7.5 covers (51%)
  • Total: Over 54.5 (50%)
  • Score error (both teams)17

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: JXST vs WKU

The model

How this number was built

JXST 30.89–23.47 WKU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    WKU -14.9 vs JXST -5.2 · pred margin -7.4
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.6 vs +4.7 · model WKU 22.6–30.7 JXST
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to WKU
  • Record
    WKU 4-6 · JXST 7-3
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward JXST -7.5 / total 54.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
JXST10140024
WKU14701334

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 10:190–7

    Ajay Allen 6 Yd Run (Karl Campbell Kick)

  • FGQ1 7:173–7

    Garrison Rippa 50 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ1 7:0610–7

    Jacob Cruz 8 Yd Fumble Return (Garrison Rippa Kick)

  • TDQ1 0:1810–14

    Brock Glenn 4 Yd Run (Karl Campbell Kick)

  • TDQ2 12:1517–14

    Jamill Williams 9 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)

  • TDQ2 3:1117–21

    Brock Glenn 1 Yd Run (Karl Campbell Kick)

  • TDQ2 2:3724–21

    Luke Gilbert 7 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)

  • TDQ4 0:0224–28

    Jyziah Rockwell 10 Yd pass from Brock Glenn (Karl Campbell Kick)

  • TDQ4 0:0024–34

    Dave Herard 2 Yd Fumble Return

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

JXSTC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Caden Creel
#12
17/251646.62112.9
Team17/251646.621--

Rushing

JXSTCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Jalen Likely
#6
7243.406
Caden Creel
#12
11171.5011
Justus Savage
#21
341.3010
Khristian Lando
#7
133.003
Caleb Nix
#1
100.000
Aidan Thompson
#35
100.000
Team24482.0011

Receiving

JXSTRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Deondre Johnson
#11
27236.0063
Luke Gilbert
#30
55511.0127
Jamill Williams
#17
4256.319
Andrevius Smith
#87
199.009
Caleb Nix
#1
155.0010
Darius Cannon
#3
155.005
Justus Savage
#21
155.0011
Jameson Scissum
#44
144.004
Jalen Likely
#6
1-2-2.000
Dylan Gentry
#5
0-140.000
Team171649.6263

Fumbles

JXSTFUMLOSTREC
Caden Creel
#12
110
Dylan Gentry
#5
110
Jacob Cruz
#13
002
Team222

Defense

JXSTTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Caleb Nix
#1
9700000
Myles Butler
#0
8600000
Brennan Core
#12
7500000
Jameson McCollough
#34
7400000
Tre'Quon Fegans
#3
7300.5000
Jonavan Carr
#9
6511000
Jacob Cruz
#13
4311001
Tae Floyd
#15
431.52.5010
Javan Allison
#29
4211000
Rodarion Jones
#17
3300000
Morven Joseph
#2
3200000
Kaden Cook
#6
3100000
Christopher Johnson
#28
2201000
Tristan Lyles
#31
2100000
Nii Addy
#96
1111000
Khurtiss Perry
#44
1101000
Deondre Johnson
#11
1100000
Mikey Rosa
#45
1100000
JQ Brooks
#8
1100000
Quay Hood
#16
1100000
Brayden Matthews
#36
1100000
Andrew Rumph
#99
1000000
Jawaun Campbell
#93
100.50.5000
Marquis Hood
#92
1000.5000
Ty Sims
#24
1000000
Team8054610011

Interceptions

JXSTINTYDSTD
Caleb Nix
#1
100
Team100

Kick returns

JXSTNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Khristian Lando
#7
11919.0190
Jamill Williams
#17
100.000
Team2199.5190

Punt returns

JXSTNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Caleb Nix
#1
100.000
Team100.000

Kicking

JXSTFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Garrison Rippa
#37
1/1100.0503/36
Team1/1100.0503/36

Punting

JXSTNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Conor Donaghy
#87
416340.80144
Team416340.80144

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

JXSTWKU
1st Downs1023
3rd down efficiency3-125-15
4th down efficiency1-32-3
Total Yards212327
Passing164202
Comp/Att17/2521/26
Yards per pass6.67.8
Rushing48125
Rushing Attempts2452
Yards per rush2.02.4
Penalties3-223-18
Turnovers33
Fumbles lost22
Interceptions thrown11
Possession22:2637:34
Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit
WKU +7.5
-118 at lock51%

Model projected JXST 30.89 – 23.47 WKU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -3.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

  • Caden Creel · JXST

    17/25 C/ATT · 164 YDS

  • Rodney Tisdale Jr. · WKU

    14/16 C/ATT · 120 YDS

  • Jalen Likely · JXST

    7 CAR · 24 YDS

  • Brock Glenn · WKU

    13 CAR · 71 YDS

  • Deondre Johnson · JXST

    2 REC · 72 YDS

  • Zion Taylor · WKU

    6 REC · 52 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Jax State vs Western KY pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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