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NCAAFFinalMalone Stadium

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at UL Monroe Warhawks

Final · ESPN2

Louisiana42–21UL Monroe
LouisianaUL Monroe
Final
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
7-3 · W2
311 PF · 217 PA
42
Final
Final
UL Monroe Warhawks
2-8 · L1
202 PF · 355 PA
21
UL 77%ULM 23%

At lock: projected UL 30.90–19.00 ULM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 8:07 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2685028649

Winner called · off by 13
Most typical sim
UL 31 – ULM 19
Final
UL 42 – ULM 21
  • Winner: Louisiana (77%)
  • Spread: UL -10.5 covers (54%)
  • Total: Over 49.5 (51%)
  • Score error (both teams)13

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UL vs ULM

The model

How this number was built

UL 30.90–19.00 ULM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    ULM -24.1 vs UL -3.3 · pred margin -11.5
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -9.6 vs +3.0 · model ULM 18.1–34.5 UL
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to ULM
  • Record
    ULM 2-8 · UL 7-3
  • Market prior
    Blended 80% toward UL -10 / total 47.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UL77141442
ULM770721

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 6:370–7

    Austin Carlisle 1 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)

  • TDQ1 3:367–7

    Shelton Sampson Jr. 13 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ2 13:347–14

    Jaiden Tucker 5 Yd pass from Austin Carlisle (Abram Murray Kick)

  • TDQ2 0:4014–14

    KeDarius Wade 8 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ3 12:2721–14

    Micah Johnson 18 Yd Fumble Return (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ3 2:3628–14

    JJ Garner 19 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ4 11:3235–14

    JJ Garner 18 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ4 5:5235–21

    Don Chaney 6 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)

  • TDQ4 1:5742–21

    Steven Blanco 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

ULC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Lunch Winfield
#7
7/13655.01021.3
Team7/13655.010--

Rushing

ULCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Steven Blanco
#24
151137.5116
JJ Garner
#20
910411.6228
Lunch Winfield
#7
7375.3010
KeDarius Wade
#9
22010.0112
Team332748.3428

Receiving

ULRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Brock Chappell
#83
22412.0012
Russell Babineaux
#10
2168.009
Shelton Sampson Jr.
#6
2157.5113
Caden Jensen
#88
11010.0010
Team7659.3135

Fumbles

ULFUMLOSTREC
Brent Gordon Jr.
#11
100
Micah Johnson
#3
002
Team102

Defense

ULTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Jake St. Andre
#44
14400000
Collin Jacob
#35
9601000
Micah Johnson
#3
9500101
Maurion Eleam
#21
6500000
Kody Jackson
#8
5300010
Ashley Williams
#2
5200000
Fitzgerald West Jr.
#68
4201010
Lake Bates
#24
4100000
Tito Chikere
#17
4100000
Maxie Baudoin IV
#95
3311100
Brent Gordon Jr.
#11
3200100
Priest Ashe
#0
3100010
Cam Riley
#18
3100000
Lance Williams
#9
2100000
Avery Demery
#10
2100000
Logan Klotz
#40
1100000
Ashton Wright
#99
1100010
Chase Howard
#96
1100000
Kailep Edwards
#16
1000000
Brodrick Stewart
#93
1000000
Jeremiah Moses
#23
0000100
Team814113441

Interceptions

ULINTYDSTD
Kody Jackson
#8
120
Team120

Kick returns

ULNOYDSAVGLONGTD
JJ Garner
#20
12626.0260
Trenton Chaney
#4
12525.0250
Teddy Gawlik
#44
188.080
Team35919.7260

Punt returns

ULNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Brent Gordon Jr.
#11
1-4-4.000
Team1-4-4.000

Kicking

ULFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Tony Sterner
#95
0/00.006/66
Team0/00.006/66

Punting

ULNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Mason Golding
#49
414035.00338
Team414035.00338

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

ULULM
1st Downs2122
3rd down efficiency1-59-17
4th down efficiency0-02-4
Total Yards339372
Passing65112
Comp/Att7/1318/30
Yards per pass5.03.7
Rushing274260
Rushing Attempts3349
Yards per rush8.35.3
Penalties8-624-40
Turnovers03
Fumbles lost02
Interceptions thrown01
Possession24:3335:27
Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit
UL -10.5
-108 at lock52%

Model projected UL 30.90 – 19.00 ULM at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

  • Lunch Winfield · UL

    7/13 C/ATT · 65 YDS

  • Aidan Armenta · ULM

    9/15 C/ATT · 70 YDS

  • Steven Blanco · UL

    15 CAR · 113 YDS

  • Bryson Roland · ULM

    17 CAR · 111 YDS

  • Brock Chappell · UL

    2 REC · 24 YDS

  • Bryce Anderson · ULM

    4 REC · 34 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Louisiana vs UL Monroe pick result · Nov 12, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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