Overline Sports
Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalOur Lady of Lourdes Stadium

South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Final · ESPN+

South Alabama26–28Louisiana
South AlabamaLouisiana
Final
South Alabama Jaguars
4-5 · W1
319 PF · 304 PA
26
Final
Final
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
6-3 · W2
311 PF · 217 PA
28
USA 28%UL 72%

At lock: projected USA 24.83–34.04 UL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:12 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2668251030

Winner called · off by 7
Most typical sim
USA 25 – UL 34
Final
USA 26 – UL 28
  • Winner: Louisiana (72%)
  • Spread: UL -7.5 covers (54%)
  • Total: Over 57.5 (56%)
  • Score error (both teams)7

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: USA vs UL

The model

How this number was built

USA 24.83–34.04 UL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    UL -3.3 vs USA -10.2 · pred margin +8.0
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.0 vs -1.3 · model UL 34.7–24.7 USA
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to UL
  • Record
    UL 6-3 · USA 4-5
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward UL -7 / total 57.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
USA7106326
UL7147028

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 14:480–7

    JJ Garner 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ1 2:117–7

    Bishop Davenport 1 Yd Run (Dylan Freebury Kick)

  • TDQ2 14:517–14

    JJ Garner 65 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ2 9:2814–14

    Jaylen Moson 72 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Freebury Kick)

  • TDQ2 4:1614–21

    Lunch Winfield 14 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • FGQ2 1:1317–21

    Dylan Freebury 44 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 3:5217–28

    Shelton Sampson Jr. 27 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)

  • TDQ3 3:1823–28

    Bishop Davenport 45 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

  • FGQ4 10:2626–28

    Dylan Freebury 50 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

USAC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Bishop Davenport
#4
16/222109.50177.3
Team16/222109.501--

Rushing

USACARYDSAVGTDLONG
Bishop Davenport
#4
11575.2245
Trae'von Dunbar
#21
7476.7012
PJ Martin
#0
7375.3026
Keenan Phillips
#3
9192.106
Team
1-1-1.000
Team351594.5245

Receiving

USARECYDSAVGTDLONG
Brendan Jenkins
#12
610116.8044
Anthony Eager
#1
33812.7019
Trae Stevenson
#11
13131.0031
Rod Gibbs
#9
22412.0023
Keenan Phillips
#3
177.007
PJ Martin
#0
144.004
Trae'von Dunbar
#21
133.003
Jeremiah Jones-Thomas
#2
122.002
Team1621013.1044

Fumbles

USAFUMLOSTREC
Keenan Phillips
#3
200
Team200

Defense

USATOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Seidrion Langston
#16
8600000
Xavious Anderson Jr.
#26
7500000
Stephen Johnson
#56
6400000
Tre Brown
#49
5400000
Kam Robinson
#13
4400000
E'Mauri Smiley
#90
4311000
Damyrion Darby
#24
4300000
Emmanuel Waller
#9
3200100
Jordan Williams
#48
3200000
Camen Upshaw
#32
2200100
T
Tre Webb III
#3
2200000
Tre'Mon Henry
#25
2111000
Parker Shattuck
#11
2100000
Teryn Green
#36
2100000
Andrew Hines
#94
2100000
Christian Ross
#17
1111000
William Felton IV
#10
1100000
Kohl Bradley
#4
1100000
Trae Stevenson
#11
1100000
Colby Williams
#15
1100000
Dallas Young
#8
1000000
Tyler Carter
#41
1000000
Rodney Hunter
#39
1000000
Jaylen Moson
#12
0000001
Team644633201

Interceptions

USAINTYDSTD
Jaylen Moson
#12
1721
Team1721

Kick returns

USANOYDSAVGLONGTD
Keenan Phillips
#3
512024.0390
Team512024.0390

Kicking

USAFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Dylan Freebury
#37
2/2100.0502/28
Team2/2100.0502/28

Punting

USANOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Aleksi Pulkkinen
#40
414235.50245
Team414235.50245

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

USAUL
1st Downs1719
3rd down efficiency4-128-13
4th down efficiency2-20-0
Total Yards369459
Passing210147
Comp/Att16/2210/14
Yards per pass9.510.5
Rushing159312
Rushing Attempts3544
Yards per rush4.57.1
Penalties9-6510-60
Turnovers11
Fumbles lost00
Interceptions thrown11
Possession28:2331:37
Computer pick · Spread
USA +9.5
50%

At lock USA 24.83–34.04 UL · UL by 9.2 pts vs USA +9.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit
Players

  • Bishop Davenport · USA

    16/22 C/ATT · 210 YDS

  • Lunch Winfield · UL

    10/14 C/ATT · 147 YDS

  • JJ Garner · UL

    10 CAR · 136 YDS

  • Brendan Jenkins · USA

    6 REC · 101 YDS

  • Trenton Chaney · UL

    2 REC · 46 YDS

  • Seidrion Langston · USA

    8 TOT · 6 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

South Alabama vs Louisiana pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is USA +9.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

21+Must be 21+ to bet. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

© 2026 OVERLINE Sports · Image credits