NCAAFSat 4:00 PM CTM. M. Roberts Stadium

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

TV · ESPN+

Sat 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

USM +10.5

52%

UL 31.31–21.43 USM

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

5-2 · W1

210 PF · 135 PA

31.31

Projected

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

1-5 · L5 · computer pick

145 PF · 196 PA

21.43

UL 73%USM 27%

Projected UL 31.31–21.43 USM

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UL -8.6

UL -10.5

Total

53.2

52.5

Gap: +1.9 margin, +0.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UL vs USM

The model

How this number was built

UL 31.31–21.43 USM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
USM -14.7 vs UL -1.8 · pred margin -9.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.5 vs +3.2 · model USM 24.7–30.3 UL
Home field
+3.0 pts to USM
Record
USM 1-5 · UL 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UL -10.5 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Lunch Winfield
Pass 108/155, 1153 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Lunch Winfield
Rush 97 CAR, 463 YDS, 8 TD
KeDarius Wade
Rec 11 REC, 226 YDS, 2 TD

Landry Lyddy
Pass 80/132, 1032 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
Steven Robinson
Rush 99 CAR, 432 YDS, 5 TD
Mario Sanders
Rec 34 REC, 492 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UL	USM
Points Per Game	30.0	24.2
Total Yards	377.7	394.5
Yards Passing	177.6	260.8
Yards Rushing	200.1	133.7
Points Allowed Per Game	19.3	32.7
Yards Allowed	298.3	447.2
Pass Yards Allowed	194.0	195.2
Rush Yards Allowed	104.3	252.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Louisiana vs Southern Miss prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is USM +10.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Louisiana 31.3, Southern Miss 21.4. Model win probability: Southern Miss 27%, Louisiana 73%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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