NCAAFFinalM. M. Roberts Stadium

James Madison Dukes at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Final · ESPN2

54–23

James MadisonSouthern Miss

Final

James Madison Dukes

8-2 · L1

428 PF · 239 PA

Final

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

3-6 · L2

269 PF · 365 PA

JMU 84%USM 16%

At lock: projected JMU 37.24–20.84 USM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 7:22 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2869582458

Winner called · off by 19

Most typical sim

JMU 37 – USM 21

Final

JMU 54 – USM 23

Winner: James Madison (85%)
Spread: JMU -14.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 58.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)19

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: JMU vs USM

The model

How this number was built

JMU 37.24–20.84 USM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
USM -14.9 vs JMU +4.8 · pred margin -15.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.6 vs +13.1 · model USM 20.0–41.1 JMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to USM
Record
USM 3-6 · JMU 8-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward JMU -13.5 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
JMU	10	6	14	24	54
USM	0	14	0	9	23

How the points were scored

FGQ1 9:443–0
Morgan Suarez 32 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 7:3410–0
JC Evans 3 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
TDQ2 14:3210–7
John White 3 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
FGQ2 10:0913–7
Morgan Suarez 31 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 0:3713–14
Steven Robinson 2 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
FGQ2 0:0016–14
Morgan Suarez 40 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 13:3523–14
JC Evans 16 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
TDQ3 5:5630–14
JC Evans 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
TDQ4 13:4137–14
Seth Cromwell 16 Yd pass from JC Evans (Morgan Suarez Kick)
TDQ4 11:3344–14
Jackson McCarter 30 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
TDQ4 9:1044–20
Mario Sanders 34 Yd pass from John White (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ4 7:3351–20
Michael Scott 26 Yd pass from Camden Coleman (Morgan Suarez Kick)
FGQ4 4:5451–23
Creighton Wilbanks 29 Yd Field Goal
FGQ4 1:2254–23
Morgan Suarez 34 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

JMU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	QBR
JC Evans #1	19/26	251	9.7	1	84.6
Camden Coleman #7	4/4	72	18.0	1	98.6
Arrington Maiden #5	0/1	0	0.0	0	--
Team	23/31	323	10.4	2	--

Rushing

JMU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Seth Cromwell #34	10	56	5.6	0	15
Jackson McCarter #21	7	51	7.3	1	30
JC Evans #1	13	47	3.6	3	16
Trashon Dye #33	4	15	3.8	0	8
Nick Herman #23	1	5	5.0	0	5
Braeden Wisloski #10	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	36	175	4.9	4	30

Receiving

JMU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Corey Scott #3	6	138	23.0	0	37
Michael Scott #17	3	61	20.3	1	26
Braeden Wisloski #10	5	56	11.2	0	27
Seth Cromwell #34	4	40	10.0	1	16
Miles Halbert #43	1	17	17.0	0	17
Za'Ron Collins #12	1	12	12.0	0	12
Jeremiah Harrison #8	1	7	7.0	0	7
Nick Herman #23	1	5	5.0	0	5
Cole Keller #0	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	23	340	14.8	2	37

Defense

JMU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
JT Hooten #15	8	6	3	3	0	0
TJ McGill #16	8	5	0	0	0	0
Jakolbi Wilson #91	8	1	0	0	0	0
Seth Gathers #31	5	4	0	0	0	0
Nakian Jackson #2	5	2	0	0	0	0
Ernest Willor Jr. #13	4	2	0	1	0	0
LaRon Dues #11	4	1	0	0	0	0
Terrence Jones #25	4	0	0	0	0	0
Mychal McMullin #93	3	2	0	0	0	0
Gannon Weathersby #3	3	1	0	0	0	0
Rasheed Lovelace #55	3	0	0	0	0	0
Kei'Trone Simpson #9	3	0	0	0	0	0
Ken Willis #23	2	2	1	1	2	0
Jamal Olford #27	2	2	0	0	1	0
Danny Royster #17	2	1	0	0	0	0
Turner Schmidt #98	2	0	0	0	0	0
Roddrey McWilliams #7	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Roberts #5	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kells Bush #88	1	1	0	0	0	1
DJ Kelly #6	1	1	0	0	1	0
JT Kouame-Yao #42	1	1	0	0	0	0
Miles Halbert #43	1	1	0	0	0	0
KJ Flowe #14	1	0	0	0	1	0
Kacey Gilliam #44	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremiah Harrison #8	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	77	33	4	5	5	1

Kick returns

JMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Michael Scott #17	2	42	21.0	22	0
Team	2	42	21.0	28	0

Punt returns

JMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Michael Scott #17	1	18	18.0	18	0
Team	1	18	18.0	18	0

Kicking

JMU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Morgan Suarez #5	4/4	100.0	40	6/6	18
Team	4/4	100.0	40	6/6	18

Punting

JMU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Patrick Rea #11	2	96	48.0	0	1	53
Team	2	96	48.0	0	1	53

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	JMU	USM
1st Downs	27	20
3rd down efficiency	4-11	3-14
4th down efficiency	1-1	1-3
Total Yards	498	354
Passing	323	266
Comp/Att	23/31	22/35
Yards per pass	10.4	7.6
Rushing	175	88
Rushing Attempts	36	37
Yards per rush	4.9	2.4
Penalties	9-91	12-91
Turnovers	0	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	30:15	29:45

Computer pick · Spread

JMU -14.5

52%

At lock JMU 37.24–20.84 USM · JMU by 16.4 pts vs JMU -14.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

JC Evans · JMU
19/26 C/ATT · 251 YDS
John White · USM
22/35 C/ATT · 266 YDS
Seth Cromwell · JMU
10 CAR · 56 YDS
Steven Robinson · USM
15 CAR · 54 YDS
Corey Scott · JMU
6 REC · 138 YDS
Kaden Saunders · USM
6 REC · 122 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

James Madison vs Southern Miss pick result · Nov 5, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is JMU -14.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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