Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Final · ESPN+
21–28
At lock: projected ARST 25.27–26.05 CCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 436386418
- Winner: Coastal (52%)
- Spread: CCU -1.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 51.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)6
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ARST vs CCU
The model
How this number was built
ARST 25.27–26.05 CCU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCCU -12.1 vs ARST -10.3 · pred margin -0.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.7 vs -0.2 · model CCU 25.4–26.0 ARST
- Home field+3.0 pts to CCU
- RecordCCU 4-6 · ARST 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ARST -1.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| CCU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 5:490–7
Karmello English 7 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)
- TDQ1 3:127–7
Chauncy Cobb 17 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
- TDQ2 6:3014–7
Timothy Carter 3 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
- TDQ2 1:5714–14
Deuce Bailey 2 Yd Run (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)
- TDQ3 2:4914–21
Reggie Jean 55 Yd Fumble Return (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)
- TDQ4 6:1214–28
Kente Edwards 11 Yd Run (Nico Cavanillas Alti Kick)
- TDQ4 2:0221–28
Trey Owens 2 Yd Run (Clune Van Andel Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ARST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trey Owens #9 | 23/40 | 217 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 | 47.4 |
| Team | 23/40 | 217 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| ARST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trey Owens #9 | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 | 9 |
 Solomon Baggett #23 | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | 8 |
 Chauncy Cobb #2 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 1 | 17 |
 Kenyon Clay #5 | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | 5 |
J James Lee #27 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Timothy Carter #31 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 |
| Team | 31 | 108 | 3.5 | 3 | 17 |
Receiving
| ARST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jabari Bush #17 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 | 27 |
 Hunter Summers #3 | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 | 12 |
 Jaylen Bonelli #10 | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 | 21 |
Kenyon Clay #5 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 13 |
Chauncy Cobb #2 | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | 11 |
Solomon Baggett #23 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Nana Burris #0 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Ezra Burgess #82 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Tyler Little #11 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 23 | 217 | 9.4 | 0 | 27 |
Fumbles
| ARST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaylen Bonelli #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Kenyon Clay #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hunter Summers #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Trey Owens #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Dontrae Henderson #0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Marquis Williams #17 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Defense
| ARST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joe Drew #16 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 AG McGhee #6 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tre Stevens #23 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Brandon Greil #15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elias Sherman #92 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Shakai Woods #98 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Makai Shahid #4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mckinley Mcshan #34 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tony Carter #10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Dontrae Henderson #0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Five Hamilton #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah Flores #3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jaylen Bonelli #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gavin Taylor #30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kam Moore #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brandon Barnes #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Grant #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J James Lee #27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 71 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ARST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chauncy Cobb #2 | 4 | 80 | 20.0 | 23 | 0 |
 Reed Linder #84 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 94 | 18.8 | 23 | 0 |
Punt returns
| ARST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaylen Bonelli #10 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 15 | 0 |
 Shaun Williams #42 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 12 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 15 | 0 |
Kicking
| ARST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Clune Van Andel #34 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3/3 | 3 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3/3 | 3 |
Punting
| ARST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daniel Vuckovic #90 | 6 | 261 | 43.5 | 0 | 5 | 59 |
| Team | 6 | 261 | 43.5 | 0 | 5 | 59 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ARST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 16 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-16 | 4-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 325 | 271 |
| Passing | 217 | 208 |
| Comp/Att | 23/40 | 21/24 |
| Yards per pass | 5.4 | 8.7 |
| Rushing | 108 | 63 |
| Rushing Attempts | 31 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| Penalties | 4-45 | 3-31 |
| Turnovers | 5 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 4 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 28:51 | 31:07 |
Model projected ARST 25.27 – 26.05 CCU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Trey Owens · ARST
23/40 C/ATT · 217 YDSDeuce Bailey · CCU
21/24 C/ATT · 208 YDSKente Edwards · CCU
15 CAR · 38 YDSJabari Bush · ARST
3 REC · 45 YDSColton Hinton · CCU
6 REC · 81 YDSJoe Drew · ARST
14 TOT · 3 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Arkansas St vs Coastal pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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