NCAAFSat 6:00 PM CTCentennial Bank Stadium

Georgia State Panthers at Arkansas State Red Wolves

TV · ESPN+

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ARST +2.5

53%

GAST 29.81–28.41 ARST

Georgia State Panthers

4-2 · L1

219 PF · 144 PA

29.81

Projected

Arkansas State Red Wolves

3-4 · W1 · computer pick

192 PF · 186 PA

28.41

GAST 53%ARST 47%

Projected GAST 29.81–28.41 ARST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ARST -0.9

GAST -2.5

Total

57.7

58.5

Gap: +3.4 margin, -0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GAST vs ARST

The model

How this number was built

GAST 29.81–28.41 ARST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ARST -8.5 vs GAST -5.9 · pred margin -1.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.1 vs +0.8 · model ARST 28.9–26.8 GAST
Home field
+3.0 pts to ARST
Record
ARST 3-4 · GAST 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward GAST -2.5 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cameran Brown
Pass 102/156, 1291 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT
Lanear McCrary Jr.
Rush 78 CAR, 385 YDS, 4 TD
Rodshaun Dorsey
Rec 21 REC, 333 YDS, 7 TD

Trey Owens
Pass 138/201, 1631 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT
Solomon Baggett
Rush 61 CAR, 287 YDS, 2 TD
Hunter Summers
Rec 31 REC, 422 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GAST	ARST
Points Per Game	36.5	27.4
Total Yards	452.7	366.0
Yards Passing	246.7	233.0
Yards Rushing	206.0	133.0
Points Allowed Per Game	24.0	26.6
Yards Allowed	336.7	379.9
Pass Yards Allowed	189.2	185.1
Rush Yards Allowed	147.5	194.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Georgia St vs Arkansas St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ARST +2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Georgia St 29.8, Arkansas St 28.4. Model win probability: Arkansas St 47%, Georgia St 53%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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