App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd
Final · ESPN+
20–16
At lock: projected APP 27.82–26.12 MRSH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 5:37 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 654348370
- Winner: App State (55%)
- Spread: APP -1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 54.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: APP vs MRSH
The model
How this number was built
APP 27.82–26.12 MRSH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMRSH -15.7 vs APP -10.2 · pred margin +0.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.7 vs -0.7 · model MRSH 26.0–27.4 APP
- Home field+3.0 pts to MRSH
- RecordMRSH 5-5 · APP 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MRSH -1.5 / total 54.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
| MRSH | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 8:210–3
Jorge Diaz Nicolas 31 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ1 3:353–3
James London 31 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 14:553–6
Jorge Diaz Nicolas 54 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 10:503–13
TJ Lester 2 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)
- FGQ2 0:006–13
James London 31 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 7:5713–13
Henry Hasselbeck 1 Yd Run (James London Kick)
- FGQ3 1:0813–16
Jorge Diaz Nicolas 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 12:5520–16
Henry Hasselbeck 37 Yd Run (James London Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| APP | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Malachi Singleton #3 | 12/21 | 131 | 6.2 | 0 | 1 | 20.5 |
 Henry Hasselbeck #8 | 1/2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 13/23 | 132 | 5.7 | 0 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| APP | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaquari Lewis #5 | 23 | 137 | 6.0 | 0 | 22 |
Henry Hasselbeck #8 | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 2 | 37 |
 Treyaun Webb #4 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | 5 |
 Ja'Quez Cross #11 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Malachi Singleton #3 | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 | 7 |
Team | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 42 | 186 | 4.4 | 2 | 37 |
Receiving
| APP | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam Pickett III #0 | 5 | 89 | 17.8 | 0 | 28 |
N Nate Branch #1 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Chris Lofton #6 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 13 |
 Darrin Fugitt #7 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 5 |
Jaquari Lewis #5 | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 13 | 132 | 10.2 | 0 | 28 |
Fumbles
| APP | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Treyaun Webb #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Henry Hasselbeck #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Ricky Lolohea #96 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Defense
| APP | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carson Sloan #5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Colton Phares #10 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Ja'Den McBurrows #1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aaron Clark #99 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devin Henderson #7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jehchys Brown #50 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kaleb Purdy #25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Sandstrom #41 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Ja'Cari Henderson #3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ricky Lolohea #96 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Juan Berchal #0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ki'Shawn Harvey #95 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dre Walker #8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Joseph #97 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Sawyer Arnold #84 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Benton #33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jackson Grier #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mac Walters #65 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khalil Conley #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eric Adams #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Pitts #94 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Reddish #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jakob Gude #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brooks Yurachek #35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 89 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Kick returns
| APP | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ja'Quez Cross #11 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
Kicking
| APP | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James London #83 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 31 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 31 | 2/2 | 8 |
Punting
| APP | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaxson Dunn #40 | 2 | 104 | 52.0 | 1 | 0 | 60 |
 Parker Stone #34 | 1 | 49 | 49.0 | 0 | 0 | 49 |
| Team | 3 | 153 | 51.0 | 1 | 0 | 60 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| APP | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 20 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-14 | 6-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Total Yards | 318 | 355 |
| Passing | 132 | 145 |
| Comp/Att | 13/23 | 14/26 |
| Yards per pass | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Rushing | 186 | 210 |
| Rushing Attempts | 42 | 45 |
| Yards per rush | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Penalties | 4-20 | 2-25 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 25:32 | 34:28 |
Model projected APP 27.82 – 26.12 MRSH at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Malachi Singleton · APP
12/21 C/ATT · 131 YDSCarlos Del Rio-Wilson · MRSH
12/22 C/ATT · 106 YDSJaquari Lewis · APP
23 CAR · 137 YDSJo'Shon Barbie · MRSH
17 CAR · 108 YDSSam Pickett III · APP
5 REC · 89 YDSAdrian Norton · MRSH
3 REC · 52 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
App State vs Marshall pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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