Georgia State Panthers at App State Mountaineers
Final · ESPN+
39–23
At lock: projected GAST 26.14–30.06 APP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 1:42 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 704681227
- Winner: App State (60%)
- Spread: GAST +6 covers (53% vs 45%, push 2%)
- Total: Over 54.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GAST vs APP
The model
How this number was built
GAST 26.14–30.06 APP · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexAPP -10.2 vs GAST -7.5 · pred margin +4.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.7 vs +0.6 · model APP 28.7–27.3 GAST
- Home field+3.0 pts to APP
- RecordAPP 5-4 · GAST 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward APP -6.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 10 | 16 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| APP | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 9:083–0
Samer Layous 45 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 4:313–7
Dillon Galloway 3 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (James London Kick)
- TDQ1 0:3810–7
Grant Hollier 22 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Samer Layous Kick)
- FGQ2 13:2113–7
Samer Layous 52 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 12:1513–14
Jamel Howse 56 Yd pass from Chris Lofton (James London Kick)
- TDQ2 8:5820–14
Coby Owens 23 Yd Interception Return (Samer Layous Kick)
- TDQ2 0:3926–14
DJ Riles 10 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- FGQ3 1:4626–17
James London 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 13:4433–17
Rodshaun Dorsey 17 Yd pass from Ayden Pereira (Samer Layous Kick)
- FGQ4 10:1436–17
Samer Layous 27 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 5:4636–23
Chris Lofton 4 Yd pass from Malachi Singleton (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- FGQ4 4:3339–23
Samer Layous 45 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| GAST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ayden Pereira #2 | 10/17 | 115 | 6.8 | 3 | 0 | 48.1 |
| Team | 10/17 | 115 | 6.8 | 3 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| GAST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lanear McCrary Jr. #5 | 21 | 123 | 5.9 | 0 | 20 |
 Dennis Murray Jr. #0 | 7 | 76 | 10.9 | 0 | 56 |
 Qwantavius Wiggins #24 | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | 12 |
 Isaiah Stone #17 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 12 |
Ayden Pereira #2 | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 7 |
Team | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 52 | 265 | 5.1 | 0 | 56 |
Receiving
| GAST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DJ Riles #10 | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 1 | 19 |
 Grant Hollier #85 | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 1 | 22 |
 Rodshaun Dorsey #9 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 | 17 |
 Kyle Washington #4 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
Dennis Murray Jr. #0 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Qwantavius Wiggins #24 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
Isaiah Stone #17 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 10 | 115 | 11.5 | 3 | 22 |
Fumbles
| GAST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
DJ Riles #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson #1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| GAST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tyson McCrary #32 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Donovan Faria #13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
X Xavier Esqillion #4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 Richard Kramer #95 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Deuce Walker #7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kelan Butler #45 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Keenan Nelson #16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deuce Lee #8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tre Mittman #15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Kelly #28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mandjou Berte #99 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson #1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Coby Owens #20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 Darius Johnson Jr. #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Adams #48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaydon Hood #34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alex Mullings #52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonah Reeder #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 52 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
Interceptions
| GAST | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Coby Owens #20 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 49 | 1 |
Punt returns
| GAST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DJ Riles #10 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
Kicking
| GAST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Samer Layous #39 | 4/5 | 80.0 | 52 | 3/3 | 15 |
| Team | 4/5 | 80.0 | 52 | 3/3 | 15 |
Punting
| GAST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Landon Vargas #35 | 2 | 96 | 48.0 | 1 | 0 | 52 |
| Team | 2 | 96 | 48.0 | 1 | 0 | 52 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GAST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-15 | 3-10 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 380 | 356 |
| Passing | 115 | 297 |
| Comp/Att | 10/17 | 24/35 |
| Yards per pass | 6.8 | 8.5 |
| Rushing | 265 | 59 |
| Rushing Attempts | 52 | 25 |
| Yards per rush | 5.1 | 2.4 |
| Penalties | 7-55 | 4-35 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 37:19 | 22:41 |
At lock GAST 26.14–30.06 APP · APP by 3.9 pts vs APP -3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissAyden Pereira · GAST
10/17 C/ATT · 115 YDSMalachi Singleton · APP
23/34 C/ATT · 241 YDSLanear McCrary Jr. · GAST
21 CAR · 123 YDSJaquari Lewis · APP
8 CAR · 31 YDSDJ Riles · GAST
4 REC · 49 YDSChris Lofton · APP
6 REC · 117 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Georgia St vs App State pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is APP -3.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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