McNeese Cowboys at Northwestern State Demons
Final · ESPN+
Model: MCN 38.91–21.20 NWST
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1075642273
- Winner: McNeese (85%)
- Spread: NWST +21 covers (60%)
- Total: Under 56.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MCN vs NWST
The model
How this number was built
MCN 38.91–21.20 NWST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.8 vs -4.6 · model NWST 27.6–30.8 MCN
- Home field+3.0 pts to NWST
- RecordNWST 0-7 · MCN 3-4
- Market priorBlended 82% toward MCN -21 / total 60.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCN | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| NWST | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ2 14:143–0
Deaglan Camron 20 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 11:383–7
Amaaz Eugene 34 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Cooper Evans Kick)
- TDQ3 13:1210–7
Omiri Wiggins 6 Yd Run (Deaglan Camron Kick)
- TDQ3 11:2217–7
Kevin Rideau 37 Yd pass from Jake Strong (Deaglan Camron Kick)
- TDQ4 14:5224–7
Hutch Swilley 2 Yd Run (Deaglan Camron Kick)
- TDQ4 9:1224–14
Zach Wilcke 12 Yd Run (Cooper Evans Kick)
- TDQ4 0:1724–21
Camryn Davis 28 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Cooper Evans Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MCN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jake Strong #4 | 18/28 | 282 | 10.1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Team | 18/28 | 282 | 10.1 | 1 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| MCN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hutch Swilley #5 | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 | 31 |
 Omiri Wiggins #0 | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 | 29 |
 Jamaal Levi #9 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Jake Strong #4 | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | 9 |
Team | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 115 | 3.2 | 2 | 31 |
Receiving
| MCN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kevin Rideau #10 | 2 | 101 | 50.5 | 1 | 64 |
 Kameran Senegal #1 | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 | 24 |
 Elisha Edwards #2 | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 0 | 26 |
 Curtis Deville #6 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 | 14 |
 Solo Lewis #3 | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 17 |
 Reed Boyd #83 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Omiri Wiggins #0 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
Jamaal Levi #9 | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 18 | 282 | 15.7 | 1 | 64 |
Fumbles
| MCN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Elisha Edwards #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Jake Strong #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Royce Maloles #8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Iyioluwa Adekoya #18 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Landon Barrett #1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Cohen Charles #7 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Defense
| MCN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cohen Charles #7 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Landon Barrett #1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Royce Maloles #8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jermaine Hargraves #0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Emauri Sibley #6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sentario Willis #11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Dubose #14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Mason Edwards #4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Safir Stills-Bey #3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 RJ Staten #23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Javon Davis #5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Iyioluwa Adekoya #18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trace Meadows #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandy Lewis #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Kate #90 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Collin Fabacher #29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Morris Taylor #15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lorenzell Dubose #24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Fielder #98 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Fowler #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amyrion Mingo #13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 57 | 45 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| MCN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Morris Taylor #15 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MCN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trace Meadows #9 | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 25 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 25 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MCN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Solo Lewis #3 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 |
Kicking
| MCN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deaglan Camron #30 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 20 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 20 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| MCN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 George Dixon #38 | 5 | 188 | 37.6 | 0 | 2 | 45 |
| Team | 5 | 188 | 37.6 | 0 | 2 | 45 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MCN | NWST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 25 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-12 | 4-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 2-4 |
| Total Yards | 397 | 369 |
| Passing | 282 | 229 |
| Comp/Att | 18/28 | 19/34 |
| Yards per pass | 10.1 | 6.7 |
| Rushing | 115 | 140 |
| Rushing Attempts | 36 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Penalties | 11-138 | 8-73 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 5 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 28:16 | 31:44 |
MCN 38.91–21.20 NWST
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
McNeese vs N'Western St pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NWST +21, with a 61% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day