NCAAFFinalMississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Jackson State Tigers

Final

7–38

Miss Valley StJackson St

Final

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

3-7

Final

Jackson State Tigers

7-2

MVSU 10%JKST 90%

At lock: projected MVSU 17.49–38.60 JKST

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2928277448

Winner called · off by 23

Most typical sim

MVSU 23 – JKST 31

Final

MVSU 7 – JKST 38

Winner: Jackson St (68%)
Score error (both teams)23

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MVSU vs JKST

The model

How this number was built

MVSU 17.49–38.60 JKST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.7 vs -3.2 · model JKST 30.6–23.4 MVSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to JKST
Record
JKST 7-2 · MVSU 3-7
Market prior
Blended 80% toward JKST -24.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MVSU	0	7	0	0	7
JKST	10	7	14	7	38

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:320–7
Jared Lockhart 38 Yd Run (Andrew Ivaniciuc Kick)
FGQ1 7:550–10
Andrew Ivaniciuc 44 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:187–10
Dezmond Ray 5 Yd Run (Luka Sari Kick)
TDQ2 1:357–17
Li'Darius Pryor 2 Yd Run (Andrew Ivaniciuc Kick)
TDQ3 9:417–24
Jency Riley Jr. 81 Yd pass from Jared Lockhart (Andrew Ivaniciuc Kick)
TDQ3 4:237–31
Li'Darius Pryor 11 Yd pass from Jared Lockhart (Andrew Ivaniciuc Kick)
TDQ4 2:277–38
Joanes Fortilien 10 Yd pass from Jared Lockhart (Andrew Ivaniciuc Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

MVSU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	adjQBR
Jordon Davis #2	2/2	48	24.0	0	—
Josh Brown #12	8/15	31	2.1	2	—
Team	10/17	79	4.6	2	—

Rushing

MVSU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Dezmond Ray #4	16	65	4.1	1	31
Carter James #9	10	26	2.6	0	5
Josh Brown #12	10	4	0.4	0	9
Norman Taylor #5	1	3	3.0	0	3
J JaKobe McKinnie #36	3	3	1.0	0	3
K Kobe Pierce #6	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Jordon Davis #2	1	-3	-3.0	0	0
Team	1	-4	-4.0	0	0
Team	43	92	2.1	1	31

Receiving

MVSU	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Dayvian Bluitt #11	4	48	12.0	29
Jaylen King #82	1	17	17.0	17
Dezmond Ray #4	1	16	16.0	16
Caleb Brownlow #3	3	4	1.3	5
Carter James #9	1	-6	-6.0	0
Team	10	79	7.9	29

Fumbles

MVSU	FUM	LOST	REC
Derrick Sinegal Jr. #5	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

MVSU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Joey Davis #1	7	6	0	0	0
Javieane Stevens #4	7	6	0	2	1
Jamari Stokes #2	7	4	0	0.5	0
Joel Queisser #30	5	5	1	1	0
H Hollis Sams #58	3	3	0	0	0
Kamsi Arinze #19	3	2	0	0.5	0
Jusden Culpepper #11	3	2	0	0	0
W Will Hawkins #0	3	2	0	0	2
Tyrell Johnson #22	3	2	0	0	0
A Anthony Brown #28	2	1	0	0	0
Derrick Sinegal Jr. #5	1	1	0	0	0
Douglas Franklin #8	1	1	0	0	0
Amir Williams #29	1	1	0	0	0
Malek Jackson #7	1	1	0	0	0
Jaylen King #82	1	1	0	0	0
Z Zack Olson	1	1	0	0	0
Team	49	39	1	4	3

Interceptions

MVSU	INT	YDS	TD
Tyrell Johnson #22	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

MVSU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Dayvian Bluitt #11	2	43	21.5	24
Jusden Culpepper #11	1	20	20.0	20
Javon Buckley #83	1	0	0.0	0
Team	4	63	15.8	24

Punt returns

MVSU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Dayvian Bluitt #11	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0

Kicking

MVSU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Luka Sari #85	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1
Team	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1

Punting

MVSU	NO	YDS	AVG	In 20	LONG
J Jackson Arthur #50	9	319	35.4	2	52
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	10	319	31.9	2	52

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MVSU	JKST
1st Downs	11	18
3rd down efficiency	3-15	3-11
4th down efficiency	0-0	1-2
Total Yards	171	418
Passing	79	299
Comp/Att	10/17	22/33
Yards per pass	4.6	9.1
Rushing	92	119
Rushing Attempts	43	26
Yards per rush	2.1	4.6
Penalties	5-45	4-40
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	2	1
Possession	35:04	24:56

Computer pick · Spread

MVSU +24.5

54%

At lock MVSU 17.49–38.60 JKST · JKST by 21.1 pts vs MVSU +24.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Jordon Davis · MVSU
2/2 C/ATT · 48 YDS
Jared Lockhart · JKST
22/33 C/ATT · 299 YDS
Dezmond Ray · MVSU
16 CAR · 65 YDS
Li'Darius Pryor · JKST
14 CAR · 63 YDS
Dayvian Bluitt · MVSU
4 REC · 48 YDS
Jency Riley Jr. · JKST
4 REC · 95 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Miss Valley St vs Jackson St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MVSU +24.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day