NCAAFFinalA.W. Mumford Stadium

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Southern Jaguars

Final · SWAC TV

17–45

BethuneSouthern

Final

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

5-5

Final

Southern Jaguars

5-5

BCU 41%SOU 59%

At lock: projected BCU 26.38–29.86 SOU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2793762306

Winner called · off by 24

Most typical sim

BCU 27 – SOU 31

Final

BCU 17 – SOU 45

Winner: Southern (62%)
Score error (both teams)24

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BCU vs SOU

The model

How this number was built

BCU 26.38–29.86 SOU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.8 vs -6.5 · model SOU 30.9–26.5 BCU
Home field
+3.0 pts to SOU
Record
SOU 5-5 · BCU 5-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SOU -3 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BCU	3	0	7	7	17
SOU	10	21	14	0	45

How the points were scored

FGQ1 11:190–3
Christopher McKenna 42 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 8:113–3
Aiden Lanier 25 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:213–10
Wydell Clark Jr. 12 Yd Run (Christopher McKenna Kick)
TDQ2 14:023–17
Trey Holly 44 Yd Run (Christopher McKenna Kick)
TDQ2 8:503–24
Wydell Clark Jr. 21 Yd pass from Christian Johnson (Christopher McKenna Kick)
TDQ2 5:133–31
Trey Holly 44 Yd Run (Christopher McKenna Kick)
TDQ3 11:053–38
Aiden Valdez 6 Yd pass from Christian Johnson (Christopher McKenna Kick)
TDQ3 1:3510–38
Deanwar Johnson 10 Yd pass from Tyler Jefferson (Aiden Lanier Kick)
TDQ3 0:3310–45
Macario Dade Jr. 70 Yd Run (Nathan Zimmer Kick)
TDQ4 3:4417–45
Isaiah Daniel 2 Yd Run (Aiden Lanier Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BCU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Tyler Jefferson #5	12/31	144	4.6	1	1	—
Team	12/31	144	4.6	1	1	—

Rushing

BCU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rashon Brown #30	15	98	6.5	0	64
Tyler Jefferson #5	12	20	1.7	0	10
Rickie Shaw II #6	1	12	12.0	0	12
Isaiah Daniel #27	3	10	3.3	1	5
Khamani Robinson #4	5	9	1.8	0	6
Deanwar Johnson #26	2	-3	-1.5	0	0
Team	38	146	3.8	1	64

Receiving

BCU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Josh Evans #9	4	77	19.3	0	26
Rickie Shaw II #6	3	31	10.3	0	12
Cameron Oxendine #81	2	17	8.5	0	12
Deanwar Johnson #26	1	10	10.0	1	10
Kobe Stewart #8	1	6	6.0	0	6
Myles Morales #15	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	12	144	12.0	1	26

Fumbles

BCU	FUM	LOST	REC
Myron Shafer III #35	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

BCU	TOT	SOLO	TFL	QB HUR
Naim Lassiter #6	9	7	0	0
Stephen Sparrow #1	7	4	0	0
Isaiah Washburn #0	4	4	0	0
Abram Fofana #66	4	2	1.5	0
Myron Shafer III #35	4	2	0.5	1
Keontae Byas #25	3	3	0	0
Samuel McCall #15	3	2	0	0
Preston Thompson #9	3	2	0	0
Jaden Davis #7	3	2	0	0
Joseph Evans #2	3	2	0	0
Tre Rigby #11	3	1	1	0
Lewon Lurry Jr #10	3	1	0	0
Rayqwon Smith #93	1	1	0	0
Jaden Williams #12	1	1	0	0
Jay Cummings #3	1	1	0	0
Marquis McCants #13	1	1	0	0
Dairo Melendez Jr #99	1	1	0	0
Citrus Baker #41	1	1	0	0
Jamar Dean #44	1	1	0	0
Christopher Medina #94	1	1	0	0
Montravius Lloyd #14	1	0	0	0
Jerry Alcindor #56	1	0	0	0
Quinton Evans #54	1	0	0	0
Team	60	40	3	1

Kick returns

BCU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Isaiah Daniel #27	2	25	12.5	18
Tre Rigby #11	1	21	21.0	21
Deanwar Johnson #26	1	9	9.0	9
Team	4	55	13.8	21

Kicking

BCU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Aiden Lanier #47	1/1	100.0	25	2/2	5
Team	1/1	100.0	25	2/2	5

Punting

BCU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Isaac Gallagher-Cheetham #40	3	121	40.3	0	0	45
Team	3	121	40.3	0	0	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BCU	SOU
1st Downs	18	21
3rd down efficiency	4-14	5-10
4th down efficiency	2-5	0-2
Total Yards	290	492
Passing	144	111
Comp/Att	12/31	8/13
Yards per pass	4.6	8.5
Rushing	146	381
Rushing Attempts	38	44
Yards per rush	3.8	8.7
Penalties	9-61	17-100
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	31:20	28:40

Computer pick · Total

Over 55.5

50%

At lock BCU 26.38–29.86 SOU · 0.7 pts over 55.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Tyler Jefferson · BCU
12/31 C/ATT · 144 YDS
Christian Johnson · SOU
8/13 C/ATT · 111 YDS
Rashon Brown · BCU
15 CAR · 98 YDS
Trey Holly · SOU
16 CAR · 206 YDS
Josh Evans · BCU
4 REC · 77 YDS
Wydell Clark Jr. · SOU
2 REC · 38 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bethune vs Southern pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 55.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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