Mercer Bears at Chattanooga Mocs
Final/OT · ESPN+
14–7
At lock: projected MER 22.11–21.42 UTC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3191650654
- Winner: Chattanooga (67%)
- Score error (both teams)34
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MER vs UTC
The model
How this number was built
MER 22.11–21.42 UTC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.3 vs -3.4 · model UTC 30.8–24.2 MER
- Home field+3.0 pts to UTC
- RecordUTC 6-4 · MER 8-2
- Market priorBlended 80% toward MER -2.5 / total 40.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| UTC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 1:440–7
Battle Alberson 4 Yd Run (Jude Kelley Kick)
- TDQ2 6:557–7
Brayden Smith 3 Yd pass from JP Pickles (Simon Zeidan Kick)
- TDOT 0:0014–7
Brayden Smith 7 Yd pass from JP Pickles (Simon Zeidan Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MER | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JP Pickles #19 | 13/22 | 110 | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | — |
 Jaylen King #2 | 3/3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
 Brayden Smith #9 | 1/1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
 Adrian Parker #6 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| Team | 17/27 | 153 | 5.7 | 2 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| MER | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zahmari Palode-Gary #7 | 18 | 96 | 5.3 | 0 | 11 |
JP Pickles #19 | 20 | 73 | 3.7 | 0 | 15 |
 Devon Caldwell #21 | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Eric Rasheed #0 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Brayden Smith #9 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 45 | 187 | 4.2 | 0 | 15 |
Receiving
| MER | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brayden Smith #9 | 8 | 73 | 9.1 | 2 | 31 |
 Travion Solomon #1 | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | 34 |
Eric Rasheed #0 | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 | 23 |
Devon Caldwell #21 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 17 | 153 | 9.0 | 2 | 34 |
Fumbles
| MER | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
JP Pickles #19 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Eric Brantley Jr. #10 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Mike Polke #13 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| MER | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cameron Goggins #8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremy Richardson #5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ronin Dangler #48 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jyarius Carter #0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Kobe McInnis #15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nigel Gay #24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brandon Gunn #1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eric Brantley Jr. #10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Favors #3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marquis Williams #16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Martin Jr. #6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Moore #4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mike Polke #13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Ean Johnson-Kelley #55 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kehinde Akintunde #99 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ke'Vion Wellington #54 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaiden Hamilton #56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Evin McDowell #25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 58 | 30 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| MER | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Evin McDowell #25 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 23 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MER | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brayden Smith #9 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
Kicking
| MER | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Simon Zeidan #37 | 0/3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Team | 0/3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| MER | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senin Seymour #96 | 5 | 223 | 44.6 | 0 | 4 | 48 |
| Team | 5 | 223 | 44.6 | 0 | 4 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MER | UTC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 8 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-16 | 5-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 340 | 264 |
| Passing | 153 | 41 |
| Comp/Att | 17/27 | 5/9 |
| Yards per pass | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| Rushing | 187 | 223 |
| Rushing Attempts | 45 | 43 |
| Yards per rush | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| Penalties | 1-9 | 4-36 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 31:18 | 28:42 |
At lock MER 22.11–21.42 UTC · MER by 0.7 pts vs UTC +2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJP Pickles · MER
13/22 C/ATT · 110 YDSBattle Alberson · UTC
5/9 C/ATT · 41 YDSZahmari Palode-Gary · MER
18 CAR · 96 YDSJourney Wyche · UTC
17 CAR · 106 YDSBrayden Smith · MER
8 REC · 73 YDSAshton Schumann · UTC
3 REC · 22 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercer vs Chattanooga pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UTC +2.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day