NCAAFFinalProvost Umphrey Stadium

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Lamar Cardinals

Final · ESPN+

28–45

SF AustinLamar

Final

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

9-1

Final

Lamar Cardinals

8-2

SFA 62%LAM 38%

At lock: projected SFA 29.27–24.35 LAM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 776217971

Missed · off by 20

Most typical sim

SFA 27 – LAM 26

Final

SFA 28 – LAM 45

Winner: SF Austin (52%)
Score error (both teams)20

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SFA vs LAM

The model

How this number was built

SFA 29.27–24.35 LAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.6 vs -1.0 · model LAM 25.6–26.5 SFA
Home field
+3.0 pts to LAM
Record
LAM 8-2 · SFA 9-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SFA -7 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SFA	0	7	14	7	28
LAM	10	7	14	14	45

How the points were scored

FGQ1 8:140–3
Andres Sandoval 37 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:030–10
Davin Driskell 7 Yd pass from Aiden McCown (Andres Sandoval Kick)
TDQ2 7:450–17
Parker Jenkins 3 Yd Run (Andres Sandoval Kick)
TDQ2 0:257–17
Clayton Wayland 22 Yd pass from Gavin Rutherford (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ3 7:5514–17
JT Kitna 2 Yd Run (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ3 3:5814–24
Parker Jenkins 13 Yd Run (Andres Sandoval Kick)
TDQ3 3:0621–24
Clayton Wayland 79 Yd pass from Gavin Rutherford (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ3 1:4621–31
Davin Driskell 28 Yd pass from Aiden McCown (Andres Sandoval Kick)
TDQ4 6:0228–31
Bugs Mortimer 71 Yd pass from JT Kitna (Carlos Alvarado Kick)
TDQ4 4:4328–38
Blake Thomas 62 Yd pass from Aiden McCown (Andres Sandoval Kick)
TDQ4 3:0428–45
Parker Jenkins 4 Yd Run (Andres Sandoval Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SFA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Gavin Rutherford #12	24/34	315	9.3	2	2	—
JT Kitna #19	2/4	73	18.3	1	0	—
Team	26/38	388	10.2	3	2	—

Rushing

SFA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Gavin Rutherford #12	10	50	5.0	0	27
Chris Martinez #22	1	28	28.0	0	28
Jaylen Jenkins #6	7	22	3.1	0	15
JT Kitna #19	2	6	3.0	1	4
Bugs Mortimer #9	1	1	1.0	0	1
Preston Alford #28	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	22	105	4.8	1	28

Receiving

SFA	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Clayton Wayland #14	9	173	19.2	2	79
Bugs Mortimer #9	8	124	15.5	1	71
Derrick Bohler #11	3	57	19.0	0	36
Preston Alford #28	1	21	21.0	0	21
Riley Ellefson #88	1	6	6.0	0	6
Kylon Harris #4	2	5	2.5	0	4
Cameron Kelley #80	2	2	1.0	0	3
Team	26	388	14.9	3	79

Fumbles

SFA	FUM	LOST
S Speedy Jones #20	2	0
Gavin Rutherford #12	1	1
JT Kitna #19	1	1
Team	4	2

Defense

SFA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Kyran Moore #24	11	3	0	0	0	0
Malachi Williams #0	10	3	0	0.5	1	0
C Cam Brooks #13	9	4	0	0	0	0
Chance Sautter #34	8	1	0	0	2	0
A A'Amear Walton #11	7	1	0.5	1	0	0
Eli Ennis #4	6	1	0	0	1	0
J Jacob Penney #15	5	0	0	0	0	0
Lowote Jurkin #1	4	2	1.5	2.5	0	1
Makai Frisby #12	4	1	0	0	0	0
Travon Sylvester #96	3	1	0	0	0	0
Cam Vandible #30	2	2	0	0	0	0
Davonta Morgan Collins #29	2	1	0	0	0	0
E Emmanuel Harris #40	2	1	0.5	1.5	0	0
Tim Muhammad #49	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
K'Mard Kimble #95	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
Donovan Lang #20	1	1	0	0	0	0
Clayton Wayland #14	1	1	0	0	0	0
Johnny Holly #75	1	1	0	0	0	0
G Gary Seidenberger #5	1	1	0	0	0	0
Kaiden Turner #44	1	0	0	0	0	0
Marco Tyson #31	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jaiydyn Johnson #7	1	0	0	0	0	0
J Jaydon Eason #99	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	2
Team	85	25	3	7	4	3

Kick returns

SFA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bugs Mortimer #9	2	50	25.0	30
S Speedy Jones #20	4	50	12.5	19
Stetson Sarratt #17	1	18	18.0	18
Team	7	118	16.9	30

Punt returns

SFA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Bugs Mortimer #9	2	11	5.5	8	0
Team	2	11	5.5	8	0

Kicking

SFA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Carlos Alvarado #35	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4
Team	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4

Punting

SFA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
D Dillon McDougal #21	5	185	37.0	0	1	52
Team	5	185	37.0	0	1	52

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SFA	LAM
1st Downs	19	22
3rd down efficiency	4-12	7-15
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-0
Total Yards	493	488
Passing	388	307
Comp/Att	26/38	17/29
Yards per pass	10.2	10.6
Rushing	105	181
Rushing Attempts	22	42
Yards per rush	4.8	4.3
Penalties	8-60	8-72
Turnovers	4	0
Fumbles lost	2	0
Interceptions thrown	2	0
Possession	24:01	35:59

Computer pick · Spread

LAM +7

52%

At lock SFA 29.27–24.35 LAM · SFA by 4.9 pts vs LAM +7 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Gavin Rutherford · SFA
24/34 C/ATT · 315 YDS
Aiden McCown · LAM
17/29 C/ATT · 307 YDS
Parker Jenkins · LAM
30 CAR · 138 YDS
Clayton Wayland · SFA
9 REC · 173 YDS
Blake Thomas · LAM
4 REC · 120 YDS
Kyran Moore · SFA
11 TOT · 3 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

SF Austin vs Lamar pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is LAM +7, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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