Alabama A&M Bulldogs at Prairie View A&M Panthers
Final · SWAC TV
10–31
At lock: projected AAMU 28.98–27.27 PV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 927363637
- Winner: Prairie View (53%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: AAMU vs PV
The model
How this number was built
AAMU 28.98–27.27 PV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.2 vs -1.6 · model PV 27.2–26.4 AAMU
- Home field+3.0 pts to PV
- RecordPV 5-5 · AAMU 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward AAMU -1.5 / total 57.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAMU | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| PV | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 13:533–0
David Faulk 32 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 1:263–7
Braylon Finney 14 Yd pass from Tevin Carter (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- TDQ2 9:323–14
Toric Goins Jr. 12 Yd pass from Tevin Carter (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- TDQ3 13:0510–14
Byron Perrilliat 3 Yd Run (David Faulk Kick)
- TDQ3 4:4610–21
Chase Bingmon 33 Yd Run (Ethan Eddins Kick)
- FGQ4 5:3210–24
Ethan Eddins 29 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 1:5910–31
Zayvion Turner-Knox 10 Yd Run (Ethan Eddins Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| AAMU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cornelious Brown IV #10 | 16/32 | 124 | 3.9 | 0 | 2 | — |
| Team | 16/32 | 124 | 3.9 | 0 | 2 | — |
Rushing
| AAMU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kolton Nero #7 | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 0 | 31 |
 Byron Perrilliat #20 | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 1 | 13 |
T Tyler Thomas #36 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Troy Bruce #35 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
Cornelious Brown IV #10 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Nacari Johnson #28 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Eric Handley #8 | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 27 | 107 | 4.0 | 1 | 31 |
Receiving
| AAMU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaylan Bean #16 | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 12 |
Kolton Nero #7 | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | 16 |
 Devin Herring #18 | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | 14 |
 Mekhi Maddox #14 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 |
Byron Perrilliat #20 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Aiden Diaz #84 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 16 | 124 | 7.8 | 0 | 16 |
Fumbles
| AAMU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Eric Handley #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| AAMU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Hudson-Davis #1 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Barber #6 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaleb Brown #2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Keon Handley Jr #3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Diwonne Williams #54 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wyatt Wright #9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kylon Roberts #10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nacari Johnson #28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Damon Felder #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Therman-Deon Moore #27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jahleen Huffman #94 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty'Quarius Perry #19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keith Green #0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dorribion Fleetwood #98 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Arenza Davis #43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayln Chambers #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre Tibbs #42 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Myles Anglin #82 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keenan Pierce #57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khamoni Merrell #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jorhdan Brown #96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 79 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| AAMU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Nacari Johnson #28 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| AAMU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Rogers #83 | 2 | 105 | 52.5 | 83 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 105 | 52.5 | 83 | 0 |
Kicking
| AAMU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 David Faulk #38 | 1/3 | 33.0 | 32 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Team | 1/3 | 33.3 | 32 | 1/1 | 4 |
Punting
| AAMU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Connon Littlefield #4 | 3 | 112 | 37.3 | 0 | 1 | 42 |
| Team | 3 | 112 | 37.3 | 0 | 1 | 42 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AAMU | PV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 15 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 10-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 231 | 437 |
| Passing | 124 | 292 |
| Comp/Att | 16/32 | 25/35 |
| Yards per pass | 3.9 | 8.3 |
| Rushing | 107 | 145 |
| Rushing Attempts | 27 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Penalties | 8-90 | 7-65 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 2 |
| Possession | 25:34 | 34:26 |
At lock AAMU 28.98–27.27 PV · AAMU by 1.7 pts vs PV +3 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitCornelious Brown IV · AAMU
16/32 C/ATT · 124 YDSTevin Carter · PV
25/35 C/ATT · 292 YDSKolton Nero · AAMU
12 CAR · 80 YDSZayvion Turner-Knox · PV
13 CAR · 54 YDSJaylan Bean · AAMU
3 REC · 32 YDSDamien McDaniel · PV
8 REC · 155 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Alabama A&M vs Prairie View pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PV +3, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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