San Diego Toreros at Drake Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
40–17
At lock: projected USD 31.05–33.04 DRKE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1269277870
- Winner: Drake (56%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: USD vs DRKE
The model
How this number was built
USD 31.05–33.04 DRKE · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDRKE -0.4 off · USD -0.1 off, shrunk 64%
- Home field+3.0 pts to DRKE
- RecordDRKE 3-7 · USD 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward USD -1.5 / total 64.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0 | 17 | 6 | 17 | 40 |
| DRKE | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 1:310–3
Griffin Kollhoff 34 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 9:547–3
Omar Mbakwe 4 Yd Run (Emiliano Salazar Kick)
- FGQ2 5:4210–3
Emiliano Salazar 43 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:3717–3
Adam Criter 7 Yd Run (Emiliano Salazar Kick)
- TDQ3 11:3917–10
Hank Foley 13 Yd pass from Riley Warzynski (Griffin Kollhoff Kick)
- FGQ3 8:2320–10
Emiliano Salazar 42 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 0:2123–10
Emiliano Salazar 41 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 10:0430–10
Cole Monach 66 Yd pass from CJ Ceron (Emiliano Salazar Kick)
- FGQ4 5:4233–10
Emiliano Salazar 40 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 2:1840–10
Zamar Reese 52 Yd Run (Emiliano Salazar Kick)
- TDQ4 0:0840–17
Jake Scobey 17 Yd pass from Kyle Cottee (Ben Jameson Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| USD | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C CJ Ceron #5 | 9/17 | 148 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Team | 9/17 | 148 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| USD | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Adam Criter #4 | 30 | 172 | 5.7 | 1 | 42 |
Z Zamar Reese #8 | 11 | 88 | 8.0 | 1 | 52 |
O Omar Mbakwe #0 | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 | 7 |
C CJ Ceron #5 | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 | 10 |
Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 62 | 305 | 4.9 | 3 | 52 |
Receiving
| USD | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C Cole Monach #17 | 5 | 102 | 20.4 | 1 | 66 |
C Christopher Hall #81 | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 | 17 |
 Elijah Taylor #3 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 9 | 148 | 16.4 | 1 | 66 |
Fumbles
| USD | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| USD | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Hays #42 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
D Dylan Eads #21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I Ian Harrison #0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
C Cayden Gibson #49 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R River Abenroth #96 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
D Dillon Kellner #23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R Ruben Lopez #6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
M Mason Charles #88 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Shaun Aletor #93 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jaden Williams #53 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Joe Bolder #50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jae'Von Reels #95 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Sean Scheck #76 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
D Doug Williams #2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Thomas Bailey #28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N Nathan Brown #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D David Loch #44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Sadiq Henry #12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Carter Pruitt #48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Johnathan Guerrero #29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jack Munro #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
M Michael Roni #37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N Nikolai Procopio #89 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Thomas Nunes #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Cade Smith #36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E Ezekiel Swayne #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 62 | 40 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
Interceptions
| USD | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Tim Hays #42 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| USD | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E Emiliano Salazar #41 | 4/5 | 80.0 | 43 | 4/4 | 16 |
| Team | 4/5 | 80.0 | 43 | 4/4 | 16 |
Punting
| USD | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E Emiliano Salazar #41 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Team | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USD | DRKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 22 | 20 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-17 | 4-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 2-6 |
| Total Yards | 453 | 263 |
| Passing | 148 | 189 |
| Comp/Att | 9/17 | 21/47 |
| Yards per pass | 8.7 | 4.0 |
| Rushing | 305 | 74 |
| Rushing Attempts | 62 | 28 |
| Yards per rush | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| Penalties | 9-105 | 4-55 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 38:02 | 21:58 |
At lock USD 31.05–33.04 DRKE · DRKE by 2.0 pts vs DRKE -1.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissCJ Ceron · USD
9/17 C/ATT · 148 YDSRiley Warzynski · DRKE
14/28 C/ATT · 98 YDSAdam Criter · USD
30 CAR · 172 YDSKyle Cottee · DRKE
4 CAR · 19 YDSCole Monach · USD
5 REC · 102 YDSWillis Nofsinger · DRKE
4 REC · 57 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
San Diego vs Drake pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DRKE -1.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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