Morehead State Eagles at Davidson Wildcats
Final/OT · ESPN+
Model: MORE 27.84–27.82 DAV
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1085562704
- Winner: Davidson (54%)
- Spread: DAV -1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 56.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MORE vs DAV
The model
How this number was built
MORE 27.84–27.82 DAV · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDAV -0.4 off · MORE -0.6 off, shrunk 58%
- Home field+3.0 pts to DAV
- RecordDAV 3-5 · MORE 1-6
- Market priorBlended 68% toward MORE -1.5 / total 57.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORE | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| DAV | 14 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 34 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:337–0
Jackson Lanier 1 Yd Run (Jordan Price Kick)
- TDQ1 5:587–7
Casey Bullock 37 Yd Run (Christos Tzoumakas Kick)
- TDQ1 2:327–14
Casey Bullock 77 Yd Run (Christos Tzoumakas Kick)
- FGQ2 13:0210–14
Jordan Price 39 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 9:3017–14
Anthony Ice 42 Yd pass from Bryce Patterson (Jordan Price Kick)
- TDQ3 8:2724–14
Bryce Patterson 1 Yd Run (Jordan Price Kick)
- TDQ3 3:2824–21
Casey Bullock 5 Yd Run (Christos Tzoumakas Kick)
- FGQ4 14:5724–24
Christos Tzoumakas 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 10:4331–24
Anthony Ice 13 Yd pass from Bryce Patterson (Jordan Price Kick)
- TDQ4 0:1431–31
Brendan Ravin 12 Yd pass from Casey Bullock (Christos Tzoumakas Kick)
- FGOT 0:0031–34
Christos Tzoumakas 33 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MORE | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Bryce Patterson #17 | 21/30 | 274 | 9.1 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Team | 21/30 | 274 | 9.1 | 2 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| MORE | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Bryce Patterson #17 | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 1 | 22 |
J Jackson Lanier #28 | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 1 | 9 |
B Blake Fisher #21 | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 | 9 |
C Cross Watson #19 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 10 |
Team | 2 | -14 | -7.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 35 | 106 | 3.0 | 2 | 22 |
Receiving
| MORE | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Anthony Ice #2 | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 2 | 42 |
C Cross Watson #19 | 2 | 64 | 32.0 | 0 | 48 |
K Keegan Zylstra #0 | 1 | 47 | 47.0 | 0 | 47 |
R Riley Purcell #8 | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 15 |
C Cannon Dinger #7 | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | 6 |
J Jackson Lanier #28 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 8 |
| Team | 21 | 274 | 13.0 | 2 | 48 |
Fumbles
| MORE | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
C Cannon Dinger #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| MORE | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sidney Webb #10 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tazion McQueen #15 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Blake Surratt #30 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Josh Bowling #34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zayden Harvey #31 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Luke Popovich #58 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J James Ludwig #56 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Antwan Hogue Jr. #51 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K KJ Hardesty #54 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I Isaiah Watts #3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Chris Johnson #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Alex Valencia #2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Q Quinton Griffin #24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Colton Francis #60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Seth Davis #40 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Damiano Mastroianni #42 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Max Carver #46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Lane Sumerel #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Colton Carmichael #69 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 79 | 37 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| MORE | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
S Sidney Webb #10 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
Z Zayden Harvey #31 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MORE | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sidney Webb #10 | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 24 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 24 | 0 |
Kicking
| MORE | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jordan Price #38 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 39 | 4/4 | 7 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 39 | 4/4 | 7 |
Punting
| MORE | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Bryson Patten #39 | 4 | 178 | 44.5 | 0 | 1 | 51 |
| Team | 4 | 178 | 44.5 | 0 | 1 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MORE | DAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 5-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 380 | 444 |
| Passing | 274 | 174 |
| Comp/Att | 21/30 | 19/30 |
| Yards per pass | 9.1 | 5.8 |
| Rushing | 106 | 270 |
| Rushing Attempts | 35 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 3.0 | 6.9 |
| Penalties | 4-35 | 8-67 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
| Possession | 26:29 | 33:31 |
MORE 27.84–27.82 DAV
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Morehead St vs Davidson pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 56.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day