Overline Sports
Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalBud and Jackie Sellick Bowl

St. Thomas Tommies at Butler Bulldogs

Final

St Thomas14–41Butler
St ThomasButler
Final
St. Thomas Tommies
7-3
14
Final
Final
Butler Bulldogs
8-2
41
STMN 45%BTLR 55%

At lock: projected STMN 26.71–28.72 BTLR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3601955291

Winner called · off by 25
Most typical sim
STMN 27 – BTLR 29
Final
STMN 14 – BTLR 41
  • Winner: Butler (56%)
  • Score error (both teams)25

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STMN vs BTLR

The model

How this number was built

STMN 26.71–28.72 BTLR · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

  • Attack / defense
    BTLR +0.6 off · STMN +0.6 off, shrunk 64%
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to BTLR
  • Record
    BTLR 8-2 · STMN 7-3
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward BTLR -1.5 / total 54.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
STMN707014
BTLR31771441

How the points were scored

  • FGQ1 8:490–3

    Evan Windley 44 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ1 4:397–3

    Nick Peipert 1 Yd Run (Ben Hoiland Kick)

  • TDQ2 9:497–10

    Desmin Jackson 19 Yd Run (Beck Janki Kick)

  • TDQ2 3:457–17

    Michael Dellumo 67 Yd Run (Beck Janki Kick)

  • FGQ2 1:047–20

    Beck Janki 32 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 14:117–27

    Nick Munson 23 Yd pass from Gabe Passini (Beck Janki Kick)

  • TDQ3 2:5914–27

    Anthony Policare 9 Yd Run (Ben Hoiland Kick)

  • TDQ4 12:2914–34

    Michael Nix 29 Yd pass from Gabe Passini (Beck Janki Kick)

  • TDQ4 9:3214–41

    Michael Dellumo 56 Yd Run (Beck Janki Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

STMNC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTadjQBR
Anthony Policare
#11
15/261525.801—
N
Nick Peipert
#10
3/4297.300—
S
Stefano Giovannelli
#18
1/11818.000—
G
Gabriel Abel
#1
0/100.000—
Team19/321996.201—

Rushing

STMNCARYDSAVGTDLONG
N
Nick Peipert
#10
4389.5138
Anthony Policare
#11
10171.719
G
Gabriel Abel
#1
9131.4010
J
Joseph Koch
#26
6111.805
Matthew Amofa
#14
6-1-0.205
Noah Long
#25
2-1-0.502
Team37772.1238

Receiving

STMNRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Q
Quentin Cobb-Butler
#3
67312.2030
J
Joseph Koch
#26
33812.7018
E
Eli Paulson
#5
3279.0014
P
Pierce McCrary
#2
3206.7016
A
AJ Boarman
#88
11717.0017
P
Patrick Wagner
#86
2147.007
Bryan Domino
#6
11010.0010
Team1919910.5030

Fumbles

STMNFUMLOSTREC
Matthew Amofa
#14
220
Anthony Policare
#11
100
Team320

Defense

STMNTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
C
Charlie Boucher
#20
8200.5000
N
Nash Tichy
#30
6500000
W
Walker Owens
#91
5502000
T
Ty Nielsen
#9
5300000
P
Peyton Himley
#23
5201.5100
E
Evan Tyler
#42
4300010
M
Mitchell Schares
#16
3300010
W
Will Seymour
#10
3100000
B
Brent Rowe
#31
2201000
S
Sam Shaughnessy
#2
2200000
J
Jaden Richberg
#34
2200000
K
Kyle Winchester
#1
2000000
Bakari Edwards
#7
1101000
Bless Nyanneh
#93
1100000
E
Eli Paulson
#5
1100000
R
Rocco DiLeonardi
#92
1100100
A
Aidan Adamski
#99
1100000
R
Rod Finley
#8
1000000
Noah Long
#25
1000000
W
Will Carlson
#17
1000000
P
Preston Franklin
#15
0000100
Team553506320

Kick returns

STMNNOYDSAVGLONGTD
M
Mordecai Ford
#23
34615.3210
P
Peyton Himley
#23
12121.0210
E
Eli Paulson
#5
11515.0150
Bryan Domino
#6
122.020
Team68414.0210

Punt returns

STMNNOYDSAVGLONGTD
E
Eli Paulson
#5
22814.0190
Team22814.0190

Kicking

STMNFGPCTLONGXPPTS
B
Ben Hoiland
#39
0/00.002/22
Team0/00.002/22

Punting

STMNNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Q
Quentin Cobb-Butler
#3
518737.40045
A
Aidan Macke
#38
25427.00031
Team724134.40045

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

STMNBTLR
1st Downs1415
3rd down efficiency4-154-13
4th down efficiency1-30-2
Total Yards276388
Passing199135
Comp/Att19/3213/23
Yards per pass6.25.9
Rushing77253
Rushing Attempts3736
Yards per rush2.17.0
Penalties7-803-22
Turnovers30
Fumbles lost20
Interceptions thrown10
Possession29:5430:06
Computer pick · Spread
BTLR -1.5
49%

At lock STMN 26.71–28.72 BTLR · BTLR by 2.0 pts vs BTLR -1.5 · 49% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit
Players

  • Anthony Policare · STMN

    15/26 C/ATT · 152 YDS

  • Gabe Passini · BTLR

    13/23 C/ATT · 135 YDS

  • Nick Peipert · STMN

    4 CAR · 38 YDS

  • Michael Dellumo · BTLR

    8 CAR · 143 YDS

  • Quentin Cobb-Butler · STMN

    6 REC · 73 YDS

  • Michael Nix · BTLR

    4 REC · 45 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

St Thomas vs Butler pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BTLR -1.5, with a 49% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

21+Must be 21+ to bet. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

© 2026 OVERLINE Sports · Image credits