Dayton Flyers at Butler Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
Model: DAY 23.76–28.47 BTLR
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3652288148
- Winner: Butler (62%)
- Spread: DAY +5.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 50.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DAY vs BTLR
The model
How this number was built
DAY 23.76–28.47 BTLR · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBTLR +0.6 off · DAY +0.5 off, shrunk 55%
- Home field+3.0 pts to BTLR
- RecordBTLR 5-2 · DAY 5-1
- Market priorBlended 68% toward BTLR -5.5 / total 50.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAY | 0 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| BTLR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 6:250–3
Beck Janki 30 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 13:367–3
Bryce Cowgill 25 Yd pass from Bryce Schondelmyer (David Maurer Kick)
- TDQ2 1:4714–3
Luke Hansen 33 Yd pass from Bryce Schondelmyer (David Maurer Kick)
- TDQ4 12:1814–9
Nick Munson 20 Yd pass from Gabe Passini (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- FGQ4 5:1417–9
David Maurer 21 Yd Field Goal
- SFQ4 1:1119–9
Team Safety
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| DAY | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Bryce Schondelmyer #7 | 28/36 | 297 | 8.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Team | 28/36 | 297 | 8.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| DAY | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L Luke Hansen #25 | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 | 14 |
G Gavin Lochow #12 | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | 5 |
M Mason Hackett #27 | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 8 |
B Bryce Schondelmyer #7 | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 9 |
Team | 3 | -10 | -3.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 80 | 2.2 | 0 | 14 |
Receiving
| DAY | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E Ethan Thulin #5 | 4 | 83 | 20.8 | 0 | 43 |
 Michael Mussari #1 | 4 | 82 | 20.5 | 0 | 38 |
L Luke Hansen #25 | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 1 | 33 |
G Gavin Lochow #12 | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 | 10 |
B Bryce Cowgill #86 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 | 25 |
C Carson Labensky #85 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
M Mason Hackett #27 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 9 |
| Team | 28 | 297 | 10.6 | 2 | 43 |
Fumbles
| DAY | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| DAY | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Joe Kingsbury #6 | 12 | 5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
P Parker Chaney #20 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Javawn Brooks #26 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ross Coppock #18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D David Curl III #17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
J Jace Schaefer #40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C Collin Ansel #90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E Emmanuel Hardrick #21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Steven McCalmont #11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Sam Schmiesing #8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N Noah Spencer #35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Mirko Jaksic #75 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
G Gustav Dammann #55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
V Vito Paonessa #95 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zane Plattner #96 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 53 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| DAY | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Ross Coppock #18 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
E Emmanuel Hardrick #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
J Javawn Brooks #26 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| DAY | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L LeRoy Lewis IV #3 | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 18 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 18 | 0 |
Punt returns
| DAY | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Paul Kelly #9 | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 14 | 0 |
Kicking
| DAY | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D David Maurer #49 | 1/2 | 50.0 | 21 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/2 | 50.0 | 21 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| DAY | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Ben Lavelle #87 | 3 | 93 | 31.0 | 0 | 1 | 34 |
| Team | 3 | 93 | 31.0 | 0 | 1 | 34 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DAY | BTLR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 10 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-17 | 4-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 377 | 182 |
| Passing | 297 | 152 |
| Comp/Att | 28/36 | 15/26 |
| Yards per pass | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| Rushing | 80 | 30 |
| Rushing Attempts | 36 | 21 |
| Yards per rush | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Penalties | 4-40 | 4-30 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 3 |
| Possession | 38:47 | 21:13 |
DAY 23.76–28.47 BTLR
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Dayton vs Butler pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 50.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day