NCAAFFinalErnest W. Spangler Stadium

Lindenwood Lions at Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

Final · ESPN+

34–21

LindenwoodGardner-Webb

Final

Lindenwood Lions

5-4

Final

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

3-7

LIN 35%GWEB 65%

At lock: projected LIN 20.36–26.81 GWEB

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 492786695

Missed · off by 21

Most typical sim

LIN 23 – GWEB 31

Final

LIN 34 – GWEB 21

Winner: Gardner-Webb (71%)
Score error (both teams)21

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LIN vs GWEB

The model

How this number was built

LIN 20.36–26.81 GWEB · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.2 vs -5.5 · model GWEB 31.2–22.9 LIN
Home field
+3.0 pts to GWEB
Record
GWEB 3-7 · LIN 5-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward GWEB -5.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LIN	7	10	3	14	34
GWEB	6	3	6	6	21

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:557–0
Elijah Roy 32 Yd pass from Pops Battle (Will Graham Kick)
TDQ1 9:077–6
Kory Jones 20 Yd pass from Cole Pennington (Tyler Simpson PAT failed)
FGQ2 11:3810–6
Will Graham 21 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 6:1610–9
Tyler Simpson 47 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 1:2117–9
Pops Battle 11 Yd Run (Will Graham Kick)
FGQ3 7:2320–9
Will Graham 47 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 1:0920–15
Kory Jones 12 Yd pass from Cole Pennington (Christian Vann Run for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ4 14:5227–15
Drew Krobath 38 Yd pass from Pops Battle (Will Graham Kick)
TDQ4 13:3534–15
Jared Rhodes 13 Yd Run (Will Graham Kick)
TDQ4 3:1234–21
Sean Brady 35 Yd pass from Cole Pennington (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

LIN	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Pops Battle #9	11/19	137	7.2	2	1	—
Team	11/19	137	7.2	2	1	—

Rushing

LIN	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Steve Hall #22	20	66	3.3	0	12
Jared Rhodes #7	16	58	3.6	1	13
Pops Battle #9	20	40	2.0	1	18
Robert Giaimo #21	6	11	1.8	0	8
Team	3	-3	-1.0	0	0
Team	65	172	2.6	2	18

Receiving

LIN	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Drew Krobath #8	2	56	28.0	1	38
Elijah Roy #18	2	39	19.5	1	32
CJ Reese #3	3	21	7.0	0	16
Jared Rhodes #7	2	11	5.5	0	8
Jalen Smith #4	2	10	5.0	0	9
Team	11	137	12.5	2	38

Fumbles

LIN	FUM	LOST	REC
Robert Giaimo #21	1	1	0
Pops Battle #9	1	1	0
Luke Zook #25	0	0	2
Team	2	2	2

Defense

LIN	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Caleb Jacobmeier #30	6	5	0	0.5	0	0
Keshawn Lyons #3	4	4	0	1	0	0
Zach Lewis #15	4	1	0	1	0	1
Brayon Crawford #16	3	3	0	0	0	0
DeVonta Owens #2	3	2	0	0	0	0
Mason Burke #4	3	2	0	0	1	1
Nolan O'Hara #24	2	2	0	0	0	0
Sam Owens #1	2	2	0	0	0	0
Omarion Gooden #41	2	2	0	0	0	0
King Smith #53	2	1	0	0	0	0
Andrew Baumgart #23	2	1	0	0	0	0
Caelum Jones #11	2	1	0	0	0	0
Reece Satterwhite #92	1	1	1	1	0	0
Jalon Jones #20	1	1	0	0	1	0
Elijah Thomas #7	1	1	0	1	0	0
Mac Busteed #80	1	1	0	0	0	0
Aiden Knapke #22	1	1	0	0	0	0
Mason Van Der Brink #31	1	1	0	0	0	0
CJ Reese #3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Zech Pratt #0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Luke Zook #25	1	1	0	0	0	0
Carter Johnson #14	1	1	0	0	0	0
Christopher Bennett Jr. #1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ashtin Rustemeyer #91	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
Jacob Waller #5	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jesse Smith #6	1	0	0	0	0	1
David Amaliri #40	0	0	0	0	1	0
I Isaac Edwards #10	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	49	37	1	5	4	3

Interceptions

LIN	INT	YDS
DeVonta Owens #2	1	19
Jalon Jones #20	1	0
Team	2	19

Kicking

LIN	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will Graham #37	2/3	67.0	47	4/4	10
Team	2/3	66.7	47	4/4	10

Punting

LIN	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Liam Corley #65	6	182	30.3	0	2	45
Team	6	182	30.3	0	2	45

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LIN	GWEB
1st Downs	22	14
3rd down efficiency	6-19	5-14
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-2
Total Yards	309	298
Passing	137	246
Comp/Att	11/19	20/37
Yards per pass	7.2	6.6
Rushing	172	52
Rushing Attempts	65	20
Yards per rush	2.6	2.6
Penalties	10-66	10-95
Turnovers	3	4
Fumbles lost	2	2
Interceptions thrown	1	2
Possession	40:09	19:51

Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

51%

At lock LIN 20.36–26.81 GWEB · 3.7 pts over 43.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Pops Battle · LIN
11/19 C/ATT · 137 YDS
Cole Pennington · GWEB
18/34 C/ATT · 235 YDS
Steve Hall · LIN
20 CAR · 66 YDS
Randy Young · GWEB
7 CAR · 31 YDS
Drew Krobath · LIN
2 REC · 56 YDS
Kory Jones · GWEB
11 REC · 144 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Lindenwood vs Gardner-Webb pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 43.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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