NCAAFFinalO'Brien Field

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Eastern Illinois Panthers

Final · ESPN+

44–23

W IllinoisE Illinois

Final

Western Illinois Leathernecks

6-4

Final

Eastern Illinois Panthers

3-7

WIU 52%EIU 48%

At lock: projected WIU 27.72–26.75 EIU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 509711409

Missed · off by 24

Most typical sim

WIU 26 – EIU 29

Final

WIU 44 – EIU 23

Winner: E Illinois (58%)
Score error (both teams)24

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WIU vs EIU

The model

How this number was built

WIU 27.72–26.75 EIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.7 vs -4.5 · model EIU 28.8–25.8 WIU
Home field
+3.0 pts to EIU
Record
EIU 3-7 · WIU 6-4
Market prior
Blended 80% toward WIU -4.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WIU	7	14	10	13	44
EIU	7	0	0	16	23

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:490–7
Jacarre Fleming-Page 36 Yd pass from Cole LaCrue (Drew Schiller Kick)
TDQ1 7:137–7
Kennedy McGill 8 Yd Run (Ronan Culkin Kick)
TDQ2 11:3614–7
Kennedy McGill 4 Yd Run (Ronan Culkin Kick)
TDQ2 0:4421–7
Jouvenson Romulus 4 Yd Interception Return (Ronan Culkin Kick)
FGQ3 7:0124–7
Ronan Culkin 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 4:2831–7
Israel Hiraldo 76 Yd pass from Kennedy McGill (Ronan Culkin Kick)
TDQ4 14:5537–9
Ihson Jackson-Anderson 5 Yd Run (Ronan Culkin PAT blocked)
D2PQ4 14:5537–11
Jerry Addo-Boateng Defensive PAT Conversion
TDQ4 14:4137–18
Jacarre Fleming-Page 75 Yd pass from Cole LaCrue (Drew Schiller Kick)
TDQ4 14:3544–18
Rodney McNeil Jr. 44 Yd Kickoff Return (Ronan Culkin Kick)
TDQ4 8:3644–25
Jeremy Reeves 17 Yd pass from Jeremiah Salem (Drew Schiller Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

WIU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
Kennedy McGill #17	12/14	215	15.4	1	—
Cason Carswell #5	1/1	-1	-1.0	0	—
Team	13/15	214	14.3	1	—

Rushing

WIU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kennedy McGill #17	26	106	4.1	2	20
Ihson Jackson-Anderson #1	10	50	5.0	1	9
Josh Robinson #6	10	37	3.7	0	10
Israel Hiraldo #3	3	15	5.0	0	11
David Hargro #15	1	4	4.0	0	4
Christian Anaya #13	1	2	2.0	0	2
Avery Knight #2	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	52	216	4.2	3	20

Receiving

WIU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Israel Hiraldo #3	6	153	25.5	1	76
Ihson Jackson-Anderson #1	3	21	7.0	0	12
David Hargro #15	1	20	20.0	0	20
Christian Anaya #13	1	15	15.0	0	15
Sasha Summers #82	1	6	6.0	0	6
Aric Johnson #23	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	13	214	16.5	1	76

Fumbles

WIU	FUM	LOST	REC
Kennedy McGill #17	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

WIU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
LeBron Morgan #6	8	5	0.5	1	0	0	0
Malik McKinzie #3	4	3	1.5	2.5	0	0	0
Nick Reinicke #10	3	2	0	1	0	1	0
Justin Buckner #11	3	2	0	0.5	0	1	0
Jouvenson Romulus #7	2	2	0	0	0	0	1
DonPaul Keith #12	2	2	0	0	1	0	0
Cody Moss #53	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Cidney Johnson #17	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
Rodney McNeil Jr. #9	2	1	0	1	0	0	1
Tanner Phelps #95	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
E Elijah Kongolo #86	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Aa'zoriyon Bonner #3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Nicolas #21	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Israel Hiraldo #3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
K KJ Sleets #15	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Manny Howard #31	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Deandre Smith #54	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
David Dunston #32	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christian Garrett #18	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Elia Ofosu #2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alexie Sangster #0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Stribling #5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	40	28	2	6	1	5	2

Interceptions

WIU	INT	YDS	TD
Jouvenson Romulus #7	1	4	1
Rodney McNeil Jr. #9	1	3	0
Team	2	7	1

Kick returns

WIU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Rodney McNeil Jr. #9	1	44	44.0	44	1
Team	1	44	44.0	44	1

Punt returns

WIU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Joel Salien #7	1	10	10.0	10	0
Team	1	10	10.0	10	0

Kicking

WIU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ronan Culkin #41	1/2	50.0	22	5/6	8
Team	1/2	50.0	22	5/6	8

Punting

WIU	NO	YDS	AVG	In 20	LONG
Luke Droegemueller #19	2	86	43.0	1	44
Kennedy McGill #17	1	40	40.0	1	40
Team	3	126	42.0	2	44

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WIU	EIU
1st Downs	22	10
3rd down efficiency	5-12	1-10
4th down efficiency	2-2	1-1
Total Yards	430	241
Passing	214	197
Comp/Att	13/15	13/27
Yards per pass	14.3	7.3
Rushing	216	44
Rushing Attempts	52	20
Yards per rush	4.2	2.2
Penalties	8-75	5-60
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	2
Possession	39:03	20:57

Computer pick · Spread

EIU +3

52%

At lock WIU 27.72–26.75 EIU · WIU by 1.0 pts vs EIU +3 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Kennedy McGill · WIU
12/14 C/ATT · 215 YDS
Cole LaCrue · EIU
11/17 C/ATT · 174 YDS
Azeon Nelson · EIU
4 CAR · 19 YDS
Israel Hiraldo · WIU
6 REC · 153 YDS
Jacarre Fleming-Page · EIU
4 REC · 115 YDS
LeBron Morgan · WIU
8 TOT · 5 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

W Illinois vs E Illinois pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is EIU +3, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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